The Sports Truth

The Sportstruth’s senior editor, Lucas Dwyer, provides his observations and thoughts from the weekend that was.

Apparently my assertion that the Colts were not going away was wrong.

If I were a Colts fan, this would be sour grapes, but the Chargers got amazingly lucky (edittor’s note: Luke is a Patriots fan). The Colts easily could have and should have put up 35 or 42 points and yet San Diego won without Ladanian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers (you could argue they get better with Billy Volek, but we won’t do that here). Nevertheless, as the aforementioned Patriots fan, I’d much rather play San Diego than Indianapolis.

Can San Diego beat New England in the AFC Championship game if they play without Rivers and LT?

However, while we’re here, how is the early line for the Patriots and Chargers game -14.5? Sports Truth founder, Levi Matthews, believes that the spread technically should be lower than the Jax game, but believes that the Jaguars are a better team than San Diego. Maybe the spread is so high because we don’t know LT or Rivers status yet, and that makes sense, but you’d have to think that if they both play, the spread should be lower than the -13 the Jaguars were getting from the Patriots.

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We lost $25 in the first 14 seconds alone.

Hey, it’s the Super Bowl, and that means the greatest exhibition of sports betting since the Fiesta Bowl last month.

We had to start early.

In addition to gambling that there would be no score in the first 6:30 of Super Bowl XLI, the Sports Truth wagered that the first score, whenever it took place, would be an Indianapolis field goal. Devin Hester’s touchdown runback of the opening kickoff blew that all to hell.

Fortunately, in each team’s ensuing possession, we won that money back. A $10 bet to win $17 came to fruition when Peyton Manning’s first pass fell incomplete. An $11.50 wager netted us another $10 when Thomas Jones’ first rushing attempt garnered fewer than 3.5 yards.

Despite Hester’s opening kickoff return and unexpected signs of life from Chicago throughout the first half (we have $100 on Indianapolis to win, -6.5), when the Colts defense rose to the occasion and stuffed Jones on that first carry, we took that as a sign that this would be our night.

Powered by a 52-yard run by Jones and a nice touchdown pass (really) by Rex Grossman, the Bears took a 14-6 lead into the second quarter, where they had a chance to actually make this an interesting Super Bowl (and a stressful one for us), but squandered their momentum via turnovers.

A sequence of punts and fumbles that had to be seen to be believed turned things in the Colts’ favor, with Indianapolis taking a 16-14 lead into the locker room almost by default. On a side note, Marvin Harrison won us $10 when his first catch of the night was for fewer than 12 yards.

At this point, we had some decisions to make. Namely, whether or not to endure Prince’s halftime show and whether to eat that seventh helping of lasagna. There was not the slightest of doubts that our $100 on the game was money in the bank. The only issue was whether to supplement that with a pair of $20 (to win $48) bets on the under (-22.5) and the Colts -4.5 in just the second half.

We did.

With the Dolphin Stadium conditions getting wetter and Grossman losing control of his faculties by the moment, there was no way the Bears were getting in the end zone again. The two supplemental bets were akin to playing safety for the Colts against a Grossman-led offense: sometimes, gifts just fall into your lap.

The only sour note from then on was when the Bears actually gained 14 yards on one possession, setting up a 44-yard field goal to cut the Colts lead to 22-17 - and costing us, albeit barely, the $10.50 we wagered on the game’s longest field goal being longer than 44.5. Fortunately, Kevin Federline’s hilarious self-mocking ad for Nationwide Insurance softened the blow.

With 13:38 left in the game came the proverbial nail in the online offshore sports book coffin. Four plays after a Colts punt, Indianapolis defensive back Kelvin Hayden intercepted a pass (presumably) intended for Muhsin Muhammad and returned it 56 yards for a touchdown. It was 29-17.

Another Bears possession after that, and another Grossman INT. Dunzo.

Break out the champagne glasses and the motherf*%king condoms. Following its Fiesta Bowl and Election Night mastery, the Sports Truth has proven itself the compulsive gambling authority once again.

The tally:

Total winnings: $150.

Total entertainment value: Priceless.

If you were fortunate enough to stay up late on New Year’s Day, well into January 2, you were treated to arguably the best college football game of all time, if not the greatest football game ever.

That’s a debate for another time, but no one will argue that the game was not - to steal a phrase from ESPN Classic - an instant classic. To that extent, a plethora of articles - written by far more accomplished writers than I - have already been waxed about this fabulous game.

I think Pat Forde even wrote two articles himself (not that it wasn’t undeserved). However, did any of these supposed “senior” writers have the foresight to keep a running diary of the Fiesta Bowl as the senior writer for thesportstruth.com (yours truly) did? Okay, neither did I.

At least not until the second half.

I’m also guessing that none of these esteemed writers will admit that they bet on the game as I will.

Not only did I bet on the BSU/OU game, I bet on the Rose Bowl before it, USC/Michigan. I parlayed the money lines for USC and Boise State, a whopping $5 to win $28. Sure, I bet money, but this site doesn’t pay even its senior writer enough to bet big.

Without much further ado, here is a running diary of my USC and Boise State parlay:

4:30 pm: Tariq, a long time friend of mine and my inspiration for the money line parlay, calls to ask who I’d take in the Rose Bowl, USC or Michigan.

4:34 pm: After minor debate (because neither of us know all that much about college football) we decide on USC, but the +2.5 points isn’t all that appealing. However, the money line of +120 seems a lot more fun. What’s the point of getting 2.5 points? How many games are decided by less than a field goal? Exactly.

4:38 pm: Tariq announces that he’s placed a $10-to-win-$12.50 money line bet on USC and is going to place a $5 parlay bet on USC and Boise State’s money lines. It takes very little to suck me in.

4:40 pm: Luke places $5 parlay on USC and Boise State - my first collegiate bet of the year.

5:08 pm: Kick off of the Rose Bowl occurs, but I’m too busy to make it, trying to make dinner for my roommates before I’ve got to head out at 7 pm for a few hours.

5:47 pm: Both defenses have been impressive so far, but the game is a boring 3-0 after USC kicks an ice-breaking field goal.

5:48 pm: Tariq calls to discuss our bet. We conclude that we’re still in good shape. Michigan’s defense has been playing well, but we expected that. The Trojans’ defense stepping up is unexpected, and good news for USC backers.

6:50 pm: Michigan ties the game with a field goal and we go to halftime 3-3. Boring, but effective so far.

7:05 pm: The USC band leader has just informed us that the marching band will now be performing “My Humps” by the Black Eyed Peas. Needless to say, it sounds muddled and horrible. Why? THAT SONG WASN’T WRITTEN FOR A MARCHING BAND! Seriously guys, there’s nothing wrong with playing songs written for marching bands. There’s a reason Drumline was a successful movie, and it wasn’t the story line.

7:20 pm: USC takes their first possession of the second half down the field for what seems like an easy touchdown (I wouldn’t know, radio is ambigious like that). It’s 10-3 USC and I feel much better about everything.

7:34 pm: Chad Henne is picked off in USC territory on a play that looked like it was designed for the USC defensive lineman who caught the ball. Needless to say, USC marches in for their second touchdown, 17-…. what? I hate college football. USC missed the extra point. That’s the thing about point spreads in college football: you can never trust the kicker. Now at 16-3, those 2.5 points loom large.

7:41 pm: Henne has turned the ball over again in USC territory, this time fumbling, and I’m now assuming an 19-3 lead at worst. With a little over one quarter remaining to play, the first half of the best seems solid.

10:36 pm: Back in the car and the Boise State game is instantly on. In this era of scores constantly flashing across the bottom of our screen along with the score of the game we are watching on TV omnipresent, trying to determine the score of a game on radio is near impossible.

10:39 pm: I’ve finally learned that Boise State is up 14-10 after Oklahoma kicks a field goal. I still don’t know if USC won, but I give a guess of 28-10 to my girlfriend.

10:51 pm: Boise State is driving and has the ball in Oklahoma territory with less than 30 seconds to play. Rather than simply drop my girlfriend off, I’m going to run inside for a few minutes and catch the end of the first half. Still, no word on the USC game. I’m surprisingly not nervous.

10:53 pm: We turn on the game right as Boise State’s quarterback, Jared Zabransky, finds Drisan James on the opposite side of the field, avoiding a sack and creating a positive play. James jukes the LSU defender out of his pants and scampers for a touchdown. At 21-10, Boise State has all the momentum and I’m glowing about my bet. We’re 3/4 of the way home.

11:13 pm: I arrive at my humble abode just in time to watch Marty Tadman pick off Paul Thompson and run it in for a touchdown. A 28-10 Boise State lead illicits a “wooooooooooo” from Tariq via instant messanger, and our bet is all but over. Tariq also informed me he’s laid $10 to win $20 on the Boise State money line. I envy Tariq and his wealth.

11:17 pm: There it is, the momentum shift. The only thing that could derail a 28-10 lead in the middle of the third quarter. Oklahoma just punted and the ball took a freakish bounce, hit an unsuspecting Boise State player in the back of the leg and was recovered by Oklahoma. A slew of cuss words and “that really, REALLY sucked” messages are exchanged between Tariq and I.

11:18 pm: Jesus, that was fast. Two plays later, Adrian Peterson is in the end zone and Oklahoma closes to 28-17. What is it about college games that differ so much from the pros where the second the punt hit a Boise State player, you know that an 18-point lead is no longer safe? Stuff like this wouldn’t be nearly as traumatic in the pros.

11:23 pm: Zabransky drops back in the pocket, rolls left, curls back around right while running backwards and while getting taken down, completes a pass to his lineman. This is, of course, illegal. Flag is thrown. Tariq sums it up best with “can you say meltdown?” while I continue the cliche with “I can smell it. From 3,000 miles away.” Needless to say, we’re not amused.

11:24 pm: “Illegal touching, #69 on the offense.” Is there anything better than unintentional comedy?

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And the editors of the Sports Truth thought we needed to see psychologists for our sports betting addiction after we wagered cash on a pair of U.S. Senate races.

Yes, the headline you read above is true. A man killed his friend with a rifle in a dispute over a $20 bet on the South Carolina-Clemson game, authorities said Sunday. James Walter Quick, 42, has been charged in the shooting of Richard Allen Johnson, 43, who died from a single shot to the chest.

Quick and Johnson watched the game Saturday at Johnson’s home in Lexington, S.C., about 100 miles south of Charlotte. Quick took South Carolina, while Johnson took Clemson, straight up. The Gamecocks came from behind and won, 31-28.

Quick celebrated.

Johnson said the Tigers “shouldn’t have lost” and refused to pay.

Quick left the house and retrieved a high-powered rifle from his Chevrolet Corsica.

“He went back in and told Richard, ‘I want my money or I’m going to shoot you,’” said Lexington County Sheriff James Metts, adding that both (stunningly) had been drinking beer.

Johnson’s wife and several friends told police that Johnson retorted: “You can’t shoot me, I’m invisible.”

Quick replied, “No you’re not.”

Deputies arrived on the scene and charged Quick with murder and possessing a firearm during the commission of a violent crime. He was leaning against his Corsica, with arms crossed, when police arrived. The men had gone deer hunting together the morning of the shooting and were dressed in camouflage as they watched the game with friends.

Quick and Johnson met a couple of years ago after their wives became good friends. Soon they were inviting each other over for cookouts and to watch games, Quick’s mother and sister told the Charlotte Observer.

Quick didn’t attend USC but always supported the team, said Quick’s mother, who declined to give her name. He usually watched games on TV but sometimes went to the stadium. He also enjoyed playing football with his children, ages 14 and 7.

“You just hear so much commotion about the Gamecocks,” she said. “It’s state loyalty.”

What happened is “totally out of his nature,” his sister, Anne Marie Quick, said.

You mean he didn’t typically murder other humans over football bets? Really?

Let this be a lesson to all you compulsive gamblers to pay up after you lose a bet, regardless of whether your team loses fair and square. But in the event that your friend refuses to cough up $20, it’s probably a tad extreme to take his life. Even if we’re talking about the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry.

At the Sports Truth headquarters, it was a night of gambling that will go down in history, and will never be repeated… at least for the next two years. For the first time ever, our gambling gurus had to wait until early afternoon the next day to eke out a win. Also for the first time on record, alcohol turned out to be a bad bet.

Remember our sports betting lesson from the other night? Always take the over when wagering on aggregate goals scored in the night’s NHL games. That’s textbook. The other three wagers that comprised this epic night, however, had no blueprint. We had to trust our guts… and the up-to-the-minute Zogby/WSJ Poll.

The four components of the night’s wagering:

• $20: That the 10 NHL teams taking the ice would score 28.5 or more goals combined.
• $18: That Democrat Claire McCaskill (above, watching the returns) would oust Republican incumbent Jim Talent of Missouri for that state’s U.S. Senate seat.
• $18: That Democrat Jon Tester would oust Republican incumbent Conrad Burns of Missouri for that state’s U.S. Senate seat.
• $20: That Massachusetts Ballot Question #1 would pass (this represents a personal bet with an acquaintance).

Hey, how often does election day come along? Once a year? Sometimes you have to go all-out and let it ride on a couple of Democratic challengers and the ability of food stores in Massachusetts to sell wine. Yes, that’s what was up for debate as ballot initiative #1 here in the Bay State. The liquor stores have all the wine business and the grocery stores want in. Our contention was that they would get their wish.

Boy did we misread Massachusetts residents on this one. From the minute ballots started being counted, “No” took a commanding lead, at one point garnering 61 percent of voter support with 20 percent of the precincts reporting. While the hopes of food stores and the Sports Truth were lifted briefly as “Yes” clawed up to 45 percent around 9:32, the race was over and done with by 10:01.

We were devastated, as the first portion of our epic parlay to be decided eliminated the possibility of a sweep. But we weren’t as downtrodden as the real proponents of Question One, who spent $3.5M on ads and threw a party at the Westin Hotel in Copley Square to celebrate what they were certain would be a landslide win.

Presumably, wine was the beverage of choice, and presumably, plenty was consumed after the ballot question was officially shot down, 56 percent to 42 percent. Some local news cameras were on hand, panning the room and showing dejected supporters drowning their sorrows. I’m not kidding.

The early NHL games didn’t bode well for us either. A pair of 3-2 OT games settled by shootouts may be fun to watch, but not if you need an average of six goals to pull out an aggregate wager. Luckily, the gambling gods smiled upon us and delivered the badly-needed 6-5 contest. The L.A. Kings, bless their souls, caught fire and got Colorado goaltender Jose Theodore pulled. We were still in this thing.

Still, at 27 goals and two low-scoring games still in the third period, we needed a miracle. The Sharks got us within 0.5 when Patrick Marleau scored with under five minutes to play, but as time ran down in the Calgary-Dallas matchup, with the Flames up 2-1, our chances were looking bleak at best.

We had just about thrown in the towel when Jarome Iginla fed Kristian Huselius (left) for an empty-net goal with 17 seconds to go, setting off pandemonium here at the office. Always take the over. Remember that.

Meanwhile, McCaskill had finally clinched the Missouri Senate seat as the night gave way to early morning. If there is one thing we can tell you about betting on U.S. Senate races, other than that you may have serious mental problems, it’s not to expect a spectator sport. Can’t they count votes any faster, dammit? Why won’t Talent just concede, trailing by 55,000 votes with a handful of precincts to go?

Nevertheless, the Democrat held on and won us $10. Handicapped as a fairly heavy favorite (-180), Claire ended up prevailing by 1 percent, making those odds seem dubious. This was the same spread enjoyed by our man Jon Tester, looking to accomplish the same thing McCaskill did and oust a Republican Senator in Montana. If the margin of error in tracking polls is +/- 3 percent (and decidedly so, as seen in the 2004 Bush-Kerry race) how can anyone be a heavy favorite if they’re ahead by 1 percent?

Our online bookie has some explaining to do. After he pays up! Though it took until Wednesday afternoon, Tester (left) prevailed in Big Sky Country, equalling McCaskill’s 49 percent of the vote and barely outlasting the established GOP opponent in a tooth-and-nail struggle.

Even more amazing than having to wait until the following day to see if you win a bet is how few people live in Montana. Tester’s 198,302 votes were good enough for the win. For reference, McCaskill drew over a million.

It was a momentous day for the Democratic party, but an even bigger one for the Sports Truth. We pulled out some tough races thanks to an amazing empty-net goal and widespread anti-Bush backlash. Three out of four ain’t bad.

Moreover, our only loss is mitigated by the fact that, despite the food stores’ defeat, we can still go to the liquor store for wine and get smashed anyway. Seriously, does anyone know why we had to vote on this?

Sometimes, it’s just not your day.

Sometimes, if you’re a gambler associated with the Sports Truth, it’s just not your year. But there is often a silver lining, even in the deepest of slumps.

Take this past weekend for example. Sure, our staff was swept in four NFL wagers (for fun, using Monopoly money, of course), the greatest culprit being the previously unbeaten Chicago Bears.

Seriously, who gets crushed by the Dolphins? At home! That right there was a sign that it was not to be this weekend, but things deteriorated futher. U.S currency was also placed in the hands of San Diego, Green Bay and Tennessee, all of which failed — demonstratively — to meet the expectations of our experts.

Why anyone would bet money on a game involving the Jacksonville Jaguars, we may never know. Can anyone figure that team out? With Vince Young and the Titans coming off some good games, we figured they could get it done with 9.5 points. Alas, they needed 30.5. Tennessee was annihilated, 37-7.

All was not lost, however, thanks to an impromptu NHL wager on Saturday. Yes, you read that correctly. And it gets better. Drawing upon a dearth of hockey wisdom (i.e., a complete guess), we were certain that more than 72.5 goals would be tallied in the evening’s 12 tilts. Victory was certain… and would taste sweet.

Actually, it was a bit stressful. The Islanders’ Rick DePietro did his thing, allowing four goals on 19 shots, but New York could only score one of its own. New Jersey and Montreal engaged in a typical 2-1 snoozefest. We were well off the pace early, but things turned in our favor when the Bruins and Lightning exploded for seven goals in the second period alone en route to a 6-5 overtime thriller.

Not sure who won, but that’s inconsequential, of course. Coming down the home stretch, our teams — all of them — lit the lamp 64 times with two 10:30 games (does anyone watch these?) to go. It was gut-check time.

With just one goal scored by the Canucks, Avalanche, Sharks and Penguins in their respective first periods, our prospects looked only slightly less grim than the NHL’s future. But things picked up in the second period, and 33 seconds into the final frame, San Jose’s Joe Thornton (left) fed Mike Grier for the decisive 73rd goal. Pandemonium ensued at a New York sports bar.

Pittsburgh’s Dominic Moore added an insurance goal a minute later, but by that point, our staff members were too busy drenching each other in champagne and spending our newfound riches to care. It was one for the ages — and proof that you never know when the gambling gods may smile down upon you.

This weekend’s compulsive gambling lesson learned: Always take the over when it comes to betting on 12 NHL games aggregately. Always.

Very few gamblers in our world bet on every game, every week. At the request of several of my readers, I’m going to start listing Luke’s Locks™ of the week. A feature where by I list two games I guarantee (read: “with 75 percent certainty”) a winning pick.

I’ll preface the two Luke’s Locks™ prior to the pick, so even if you’re just looking for two solid picks, you can skip the rest of the article and go straight to the Locks™. We’ll keep a record of Luke’s Locks™ along with my overall record as well.

It’s a more realistic way to help my readers, nay, all of us, bring down Vegas with successful betting because my record against the spread for the year is not accurate enough to be winning money… yet!

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 8-6 SEASON: 51-58-6

ST. LOUIS (-2) over Kansas City
Last week we went with the Chiefs at home, where they’re seemingly unbeatable, and Seneca Wallace, Maurice Morris, and the defending NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks all gave us a big scare. Get my drift? If Larry Johnson (right) and the Chiefs can barely beat a depleted ‘Hawks team in Arrowhead, they’re not going to go to St. Louis and defeat the Rams. Sorry.

Cincinnati (+3.0) over BALTIMORE
Add Cincinnati and Baltimore to the 2006 list of teams that no one can figure out (for the record, the list is captained by Jacksonville, assistant captained by Philadelphia, and includes Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and the New York Jets). Cincinnati had a very winnable game at home against an overrated Falcons team and inexplicably came up short. Baltimore, meanwhile, last week defied the hurricane gods and annihilated Team Katrina in the Katrina Dome, ruining my prediction of a perfect home season for the Saints. I see the hurricane gods exacting revenge and giving the Bengals the win in this one.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.0) over Houston
I hope no one had to suffer through the Giants game last week vs. Tampa Bay. I bet that unless you’re a Giants or Bucos fan, you can’t even tell me the score, can you? You’re thinking to yourself, “was it 13-3? 14-3? 17-3?” It was 17-3 (I honestly thought it was 14-3, I had to go fact check myself), but the reason you can’t remember is: A) it was one of the least talked about NFL games in the last 10 years (look it up); B) The score was 14-3 at the half (a boring 14-3) and a whopping three points were scored in the second half. Thank you, Tom Coughlin. I see another game that is going to be far closer than it needs to be. Something in the range of 20-6 or 24-10 for Tiki Barber & Co.

Tennessee (+9.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Is there really any point in trying to pick Jacksonville games anymore? I think that I’m just going to pick the opposite of whatever the Jags did the week prior. They won last week, lose this week. And since I have nothing more to add here, let’s handicap one of the wagers we can make on next Tuesday’s exciting U.S. Senate races.

Right now, Montana Republican incumbent Conrad Burns is supposedly in a “heated battle” with the Democratic challenger Jon Tester. Burns is currently listed as a +180 underdog to Tester (+180 indicates that if you bet $100, you win $180). Tester (left) is currently president of the Montana State Senate.

Beyond the hysterics of someone handicapping a senate race, beyond the absurdity of anyone being a heavy favorite or underdog in the Montana U.S. Senate race, and beyond the fact that the challenger is aptly named Tester, is that Tester is the president of the Montana state senate.

Have you ever heard of something like that? Is this man elected twice: once to senate, and then again voted president of the senate by other state senators? Go with the Republican incumbent and the odds.

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Before we get into this week’s picks, we need to talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Has there been a more confusing team through the first seven weeks of a season?

Let’s recap their last four games. They play the Colts, in Indy, and almost pull off the upset, 21-14. They look solid, and supposedly have a stout run defense, so we lean on them at Washington and they promptly allow Clinton Portis to run all over them and lose, 36-30, in OT. In Week 6, the Jaguars are at home against a Jets team that scared the crap out of Indianapolis the week before. Not looking good, we stay away, and go with the Jets.

The result? Jaguars cruise, 41-0. At this point, we’re calling the Redskins game an aberration and, coming off of a bye week, giving only eight to the worst team in football, the Houston Texans.

I don’t know what to think of this team. They’re going to Philadelphia, getting seven points against a team that has lost two games in a row — granted, on the road — to New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Is this a rebound week for the Jaguars? Or was the Jets game the real aberration?

The only thing we do know is that Peyton Manning & Co. are not as good as their 6-0 record. They barely beat the Jaguars and Jets — two decent teams, but by no means good teams — and they’re going to Denver this week. A 6-1 Colts team will look far more mortal Monday morning.

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 6-6-2 SEASON: 43-52-6

TENNESSEE (-3.0) over Houston
I was one of the biggest Vince Young haters when he was made the third overall pick last year, but the man has outperformed expectations. You have to give him credit for the win over Washington because he does not play on a good team, does not have much of a supporting cast, and basically won it by himself. Most rookie quarterbacks win games in spite of themselves, but Young definitely showed me something two weeks ago.

PHILADELPHIA (-7.0) over Jacksonville
Ah, the aforementioned Jaguars. We’re sticking with home teams for the most part this week and the Eagles are coming off two tough losses and looking for someone to beat on, so the pick isn’t all that hard. The key, however, is not being surprised when the Jags win. We just have to be patient and learn to expect anything and everything from the Jaguars.

CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Atlanta
What happened last week in Atlanta was one of the best things that could have happened for gamblers. Michael Vick set a career high in touchdown passes and suddenly everything thinks that Atlanta has figured out how to use Michael Vick as a quarterback. I’ve got bad news for those people –Vick is still not a quarterback — at least not more so than Antwaan Randle-El or Ronald Curry. Against the interception-happy Bengals, the real Michael Vick will stand out.

N.Y. GIANTS (-9.0) over Tampa Bay
Seems I should have paid attention to my sources last week, huh? Damn. Along the lines of teams no one can figure out, we have Tampa Bay. They give up 27 points to the Ravens in Week 1 and then play phenomenal defense against the Eagles last week. Sure, they won on a last-second field goal (the third-longest ever), but did Philly really deserve to win that game anyway? The Buco’s played real well, so the football gods willed that ball through the uprights. However, I’m still not confident in this Tampa Bay team, even getting over one score.

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[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 6-6-2 SEASON: 35-35-4

Cincinnati (-5.5) over TAMPA BAY
Is anyone else confused by this spread? Cincinnati is good, right? Tampa Bay is not. The spread just doesn’t make sense. How is it below a touchdown? One decent game vs. New Orleans and all of a sudden Tampa can play with a team like Cincinnati? No chance.

WASHINGTON (-10) over Tennessee
Rule #1 folks: don’t fear the big spread. Washington has been erratic this year, so in their up-and down-schedule, they’re slated for a great week. It’s also hard to imagine Vince Young and the Titans will be able to come up with the level of football they displayed last week vs. Indianapolis on a regular basis.

DALLAS (-13) over Houston
Much like their NFC East rival Redskins, you’ve got to ignore the 13-point spread and lay the points at home vs. a bad team. So often we’re tempted to take the points hoping for a tie game at halftime or something like that, but it’s very rare. This is the same Dallas team that wiped out the Titans two weeks ago and covered an equally large spread.

Buffalo (-1) over DETROIT
How do you even pick this game? Is there anything to like about either team? How many wagers has Vegas recieved on this game, six? Maybe seven? There’s nothing to like about either team, so take the team with the best player: The Bills and Willis McGahee.

ST. LOUIS (-3) over Seattle
Another tough one to call, mainly because Seattle is still without Shaun Alexander. St. Louis, meanwhile, has flown under the radar more than any other team in the NFL right now. Yet, they only beat Green Bay by three last week, squandering a late lead (and giving this prognosticator a badly-needed push). Just like last week, in a pinch, take the home underdog.

ATLANTA (-3) over N.Y. Giants
Sources close to the Giants last week indicated that a poor run defense would come back to haunt them vs. a run-heavy Washington Redskins team. In typical fashion, the defense was stout for the Giants, who cruised to an easy win. Suddenly people aren’t worried about the Giants defense anymore. Welcome to the NFL. The Giants run defense will be really tested this week against the rushing darlings of the NFL, and they won’t pass the test.

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[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 4:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 7-7 SEASON: 29-29-2

INDIANAPOLIS (-18.5) over Tennessee
Remember our lesson from last week? Don’t be afraid of the big spread. Okay, so Indy didn’t cover last week, but our other big spreads were Dallas and Philly, who covered with ease. It’s also officially safe to call the Jets frisky or dangerous (at least to bettors). The same can’t be said of the Titans. Dallas put up 45 on them last week and would have covered an 18.5 spread. You can bet the house that Indy will.

N.Y. GIANTS (-4.5) over Washington
Sources close to the Giants say that their defense is absolutely porous, especially against the run, a specialty in Washington. But, a 4.5-point spread means Vegas doesn’t have a good feeling about this game, and our next lesson is that Vegas always knows what they’re talking about (even if, ironically, they’re admitting they don’t know — that means you don’t know either). When Vegas doesn’t know, go with the home team.

MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Detroit
Minnesota may have disappointed us last week, but anyone who’s been there knows that Buffalo is not a fun place to play, even in September. The Norsemen are back home in the dome of Minneapolis and should have no problem beating an inferior Lions team by a touchdown.

NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
Do not over think this game. Just don’t. Yes, it’s New Orleans. Yes, they let a staggering Panthers team beat them last week. But, they’re not gonna keep the hapless Bucos in this game. Team Katrina is back home for Katrina Bowl II and coming off of a bad loss to Carolina. Don’t think “hey, New Orleans is giving a touchdown, what is Vegas thinking?” Vegas doesn’t see New Orleans, they see a good 3-1 team with a solid run defense. They also see a putrid Tampa Bay team that can’t throw it in the ocean (even from New Orleans).

GREEN BAY (+3) over St. Louis
Hardest game on the board. The days of “don’t bet against Brett Favre” are over, but does anyone want to bet against Brett Favre at home? Sure, the Eagles pounded the Packers last week, but they’re a good team. Are the Rams a good team? No one is sure yet (mostly ’cause of that loss to the 49ers). When in doubt, go with the home team getting points, especially in Lambeau Field.

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