The Sports Truth

Can anyone figure out the Eastern Conference right now? Miami? Detroit? Chicago? New Jersey? None of these teams really scare anyone right now. Meanwhile, even the bad teams in the West have good records right now. Plus, Dallas and Denver just got hot and the Jazz are for real.

I know it’s early, but can we start talking about the Greg Oden Sweepstakes? Tell me the Celtics would not be nasty with Oden playing with Gerald Green, Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair, Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen and Delonte West. What about the Knicks, wouldn’t Oden make sense in MSG?

Sometimes playing for pride is foolish. On to the Sports Truth Power Rankings:

[Current ranking, followed by last week's ranking in parentheses, followed by team record]

1. (4) San Antonio (6-1). Tim Duncan’s squad gets edge thanks to defense.
2. (1) Utah (7-1). Guess what? Deron Williams (right) is a really good point guard.
3. (8) LA Clippers (5-2). 5-0 at home; blown out in 4th against Jazz.
4. (16) Cleveland (5-2). Two bad losses, but the King can’t be stopped in East.
5. (9) Houston (5-3). Lead league in defense; Tracy McGrady was even seen passing this week.
6. (17) Golden State (5-3). Won three straight; no problem scoring.
7. (20) Sacramento (4-2). Excellent defense; Kevin Martin can really shoot.
8. (30) Dallas (3-4). Three straight wins to right the ship.
9. (28) Denver (3-3). Three straight as well; ‘Melo torched the Heat.
10. (12) Orlando (5-3). Yes, they are that good. Nelson can’t miss.
11. (3) L.A. Lakers (5-3). Wait until Kobe’s healthy.
12. (2) New Orleans/Oklahoma City (5-3). Chris Paul (0-8 shooting) showed he’s human against Charlotte, but Peja drops 42 in win.
13. (7) Atlanta (4-3). They play defense and Joe Johnson does just enough scoring.
14. (5) Indiana (4-3). Al Harrington has provided a spark. Can they keep their heads straight?
15. (10) New Jersey (3-3). Two losses to Heat is not inspiring.
16. (24) Washington (3-3). The Wiz are probably scoring while you read this… now if they’d only play defense.
17. (22) Seattle (4-4). Another team that needs to play defense.
18. (21) Phoenix (2-5). Still treading water, but they need to play defense every now and then.
19. (19) Portland (4-4). Good News! Darius Miles (right) is out two months!
20. (14) Miami (3-4). Riley needs to open up the bench. These guys are old and slow right now.
21. (15) Detroit (3-4). I predicted they would struggle on defense (96.4 points allowed per game), but they can’t score either (93.7 points scored).
22. (11) Chicago (3-4). Looked good in the opener, downhill since then.
23. (6) Philadelphia (3-3). Started 3-0, then realized who they really are.
24. (13) Milwaukee (3-5). Should be better, but they just don’t play defense (104.3 points allowed per game).
25. (18) Minnesota (3-4). Lost four straight, KG rumors went up.
26. (23) Toronto (2-5). International players are mixing in right now.
27. (26) New York (2-6). Message to Isiah Thomas: Don’t forget where you came from. Thomas actually threatened Bruce Bowen for dirty defensive tactics? Rodman? Salley? Mahorn?
28. (29) Boston (1-6). What’s up, Doc? C’s hang close until the fourth quarter.
29. (27) Memphis (1-5). Pau Gasol might help, but they need to steal a few wins.
30. (25) Charlotte (1-6). Adam Morrison and Emeka Okafor look great, but they just can’t win games.

In dollars, it comes to $51.1 million.

In yen, it is about ¥6 billion.

Whatever currency you want to go by, that’s what it’s going to cost the Boston Red Sox to speak to — not necessarily sign — 26-year old Japanese righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka (right).

Making a record-setting bid that blew away offers from the rival New York Yankees, Mets and others, the Red Sox won the auction for the pitching ace who was named MVP of last winter’s World Baseball Classic.

Now the Sox have 30 days to sign Matsuzaka to a contract. If they don’t, they keep the money and the standout pitcher will have to stay with the Seibu Lions of the Pacific League.

“No one could believe the amount,” he told reporters Wednesday at Narita Airport before boarding a flight to the U.S. “I’m happy, but there will certainly be pressure. I’m not a Red Sox player yet, so I haven’t thought about it deeply, but if a contract is done I want to visit the stadium.”

The previous high bid for a player from Japan was $13.125 million by the Seattle Mariners for Ichiro Suzuki prior to the 2001 season.

“We have long admired Mr. Matsuzaka’s abilities and believe he would be a great fit with the Red Sox organization,” said Boston GM Theo Epstein.

Boston’s bid shows exactly how the market for pitching talent has soared (if Brandon Webb can win the Cy Young Award, there’s no telling), and also how far the Red Sox are apparently willing to go to stymie the Yankees. There are theories that Boston’s bid is merely a ploy to block others from getting Matsuzaka — although the pitcher’s agent, Scott Boras, does not seem worried.

“I’m going to first assume that this whole process was done in good faith,” the evil agent said.

Seriously, why does this guy have to be represented by Scott Boras? Doesn’t he taint enough American players? If the Red Sox are truly interested in signing him, estimates of what it will take range from $7-10 million annually over 3-4 years. Don’t be shocked to see Boras try to bilk a three-year, $45 million deal out of Boston, though. Yes, he’s just doing his job. Yes, it’s a business and yes, the financial side of baseball is fascinating. But he’s still the breathing embodiment of everything we don’t like about pro sports.

Regardless of Boras’ impact, can you imagine paying upwards of $90 million over 3-4 years for a guy who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the major leagues. People can talk about the inroads Boston will make in Japan all they like, but this is a staggering amount of money. Hopefully, the team will gain some leverage in the fact that Matsuzaka does not want to return to Japan, which he must if a deal isn’t struck.

Boston has until December 14 to sign Matsuzaka, who was 17-5 with a 2.13 earned run average and 200 strikeouts for the Lions this year. He throws around 95 mph, or 152 kilometers an hour, has good off-speed pitches and is known for his “gyroball,” which has been likened to a screwball.

But can he hold up in the U.S.? Can he help get Boston back to the World Series? Do the Sox even have intentions of inking him? We’ll have to wait and see.

It’s like the baseball version of a classic philosophical quandary: If a pitcher with a 47-45 career record that no one knows wins the Cy Young in the NL, does it actually count?

Apparently. Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks won a wide-open race for the Cy Young Award in the B League (also known as the National League), beating out San Diego closer Trevor Hoffman on Tuesday.

Don’t guys like Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens win this award? Webb’s total of 16 wins is the lowest by a Cy Young winner in a non-strike season. He’s one of six pitchers who tied for the B League lead with that pedestrian total this year. Having gone 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA, Webb received 15 of 32 first-place votes and 103 points in the balloting.

Hoffman, who broke the career saves record last season, got 12 first-place votes and 77 points after recording 46 saves and registering a 2.14 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter, last year’s winner, finished third with two first-place votes. Houston’s Roy Oswalt, who led the NL with a 2.98 ERA, got the other three first-place votes and came in fourth.

Wow. We know St. Louis won the World Series, and deservingly so. But it’s hard to take the NL seriously when Brandon Webb is the Cy Young winner. Is the field really so weak that Webb can win this thing? He pitches for last-place Arizona. Has anyone outside the NL West heard of him? Could you have picked him out of a police lineup before you saw this picture?

Hoffman finishing second is equally dubious. Turning in 46 saves in one season is very impressive, but would he be in the top five had he not broken the career saves record in 2006? Carpenter, Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano, who finished fifth, all had their ups and downs — but are any less deserving than a reliever? Sure, Eric Gagne won a few years ago, but he was unhittable.

To his credit, Hoffman at least played a key role in leading his team to the playoffs, which is more than you can say for Webb. Alright, this is stupid. Wake us when the A League awards are announced.

We’re halfway through the season, and to steal a technique from ESPN’s Bill Simmons, here’s what we know so far: The Colts are the best team in football, period.

Wins at Denver and at New England solidify any questions there and make them an easy #1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots and Ravens are winning their divisions. The winner of the Giants/Bears game this weekend will be the #1 seed in the NFC and both of those teams are winning their divisions.

Doesn’t seem like a lot to be set in stone, but with only half the season completed, we have almost half the playoff spots set already. In an era when Jacksonville can go a four-game stretch with three impressive wins by a combined score of 91-13 and lose to Houston in that other game, that is some unexpected dominance by five teams.

That is what we know through nine weeks. Now let’s look at what is likely. The Patriots will probably end up the #2 seed in the AFC. Besides the Chicago game in New England, their schedule is cake. Conversely, the Ravens are going to win their division but end up as the #4 seed thanks to a schedule that has them going to Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh in weeks 13, 14, and 16, respectively.

Team Katrina would have to collapse at this point to not make the playoffs, and with a win over Atlanta already in hand, New Orleans has the inside track to win its division.

With New Orleans our sixth playoff team, that leaves six playoff teams to determine and their seeding. At least two of the AFC West trio of Denver, San Diego and Kansas City are going to the playoffs - one will win the division, the other will pick up one of the wild cards.

By virtue of its play thus far, I’m going to give Denver the division and the #3 seed. That leaves San Diego and Kansas City for one spot, with the other battling Jacksonville for the last wild card. San Diego has the toughest remaining schedule - @ Cin, @ Den, vs. Oak, @ Buf (no one wants to play at Buffalo in December), vs. Den, vs. KC, @ Sea, vs. Ari - so I’m going to give the #5 seed to Kansas City.

Fortunately for the Chargers, however, the Jags have a tough schedule too (vs. NYG, vs. Indy, vs. NE, and @KC) and K.C. will still need that week 16 win to get into the playoffs, so the Chargers will back into the #6 spot by virtue of a week 16 loss for Jacksonville. Thus, our AFC looks like this:

1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Denver
4. Baltimore
5. Kansas City
6. San Diego

Moving over the NFC, I’m going to award the NFC South and the #3 seed to Team Katrina by virtue of a slightly easier schedule. I’m going to give three wins to Atlanta - vs. Cle, @Was, and @TB - and a 10-6 record good enough for the #5 seed. That leaves the NFC West and one more wild card.

A Seattle win this week would make it hard to lose the NFC West, but St. Louis is going to stun the home team and make it a tight race again. Even with the loss, Seattle has five fairly easy games remaining on their schedule (@ SF, vs. GB, @ Ari, vs. SF, @ TB) and should have ten wins.

St. Louis, similarly, has four easy wins (vs. SF, vs. Ari, @ Oak, vs. Was) and if they can win at Carolina in Week 11 or at Minnesota in Week 16, they will reach 10 wins as well. The Week 2 loss to San Francisco will come back to haunt St. Louis as they lose the NFC West by a slightly worse division record than Seattle. Minnesota should have 10 wins as well, but a Week 17 loss hands the #6 seed to St. Louis.

Here’s how the NFC shapes up:

1. Chicago
2. New York
3. New Orleans
4. Seattle
5. Atlanta
6. St. Louis

Now, on to this week’s picks…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 5-9 SEASON: 56-67-6 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 0-2

Kansas City (Pick’em) over MIAMI
I’m a little confused as to how a 5-3 team playing a 2-6 team is a pick’em, regardless of where it is play, but there’s no way Miami is winning two games in a row. They played out of their shoes last week; they’d have to do it again to win this week.

TENNESSEE (+7.0) over Baltimore
Just feels like it’s time for Baltimore to lose a game. They can’t be as good as their 6-2 record and they’re playing a feisty Titans team (despite last week’s abomination) in Nashville.

Houston (+10.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville will win this game, but their record all-time vs. Houston is something like 7-6. Houston always plays them tough (as evidenced by their aforementioned win earlier this year) and 10.5 points is too many.

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No pulsating intro music or pyrotechnics are necessary when the Sports Truth’s Starting Five takes the floor. Primarily because our budget won’t allot for such things. That would be so cool, though!

Every Friday, our panel of experts takes a current sports topic and sounds off on it — five times over. These guys have been researching constantly, poring over endless data and bouncing ideas off each other in preparation for this feature. Prepare to be amused, perplexed, enraged and maybe a little awed by their collective brilliance.

This Week’s Topic: NFL MIDSEASON REPORT

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1. When are the Colts going to lose?

STEVEN VINCI: December 10th at Jacksonville. The Jags’ defense did an excellent job last season against the Colts and Jack Del Rio won’t be stupid like Bill Belichick. The Jags will run the ball down the Colts’ throats and find a way to pull out the win.

LUCAS DWYER: At Jacksonville in Week 14. If the Jags can’t beat the Colts at home, the Colts won’t lose this year, 16-0.

EVAN CHRISTOPHER: At Jacksonville, Week 14. Boy, that David Garrard (right) sure knows how to manage a game! I predict 17-13.

THE PUNDIT: Week 14 at Jacksonville. A road game against a defense that can be nasty on any given Sunday.

MICHAEL BRIAN: When they are outscored by their opponent.

MICHAEL STEPHENS: They’re losing at Dallas a week from Sunday. The Cowboys’ roller coaster season entails them being embarrassed by Matt Leinart and Arizona this week and roaring back to throttle Indy on November 19. Or at least it would be amusing.

2. More likely to happen between now and the end of the year: Art Shell getting fired, Terrell Owens being de-activated, or another prominent player failing a test for steroids?

MICHAEL BRIAN: Art Shell gets fired. Goes back to his regular job as an Art Shell statue.

LUCAS DWYER: It’s all about tying it in and I’m still convinced that Shawn Alexander is going to test positive for steroids. Art Shell’s shocking two wins have probably spared him from being fired mid-season, and putting Tony Romo in for Drew Bledsoe was the best T.O.-quieting thing anyone has done in five years.

THE PUNDIT: Another player getting nailed for steroids. Art Shell and the Raiders will perform better in the second half. T.O. will not get de-activated.

EVAN CHRISTOPHER: I’d rather see the whole offense unit of the Raiders be released, but Art Shell will probably get the axe even though it’s not his fault. Andrew Walter is offically the new Drew Bledsoe.

MICHAEL STEPHENS: Shell will probably last until the end of the year at least, since Al Davis felt so badly about axing him the previous time. Steroid tests are hard to handicap. So we’ll go with Terrell Owens. Sure, everything’s good now. But what about after a few Cowboys losses and Drew Bledsoe replacing an injured Tony Romo? Could get ugly.

STEVEN VINCI: Has to be Art Shell’s firing. I actually think he has already been fired, but the NFL is making Jesse Jackson watch films of all the Raider games so Jackson won’t file a lawsuit against the NFL for firing a minority coach.

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At the Sports Truth headquarters, it was a night of gambling that will go down in history, and will never be repeated… at least for the next two years. For the first time ever, our gambling gurus had to wait until early afternoon the next day to eke out a win. Also for the first time on record, alcohol turned out to be a bad bet.

Remember our sports betting lesson from the other night? Always take the over when wagering on aggregate goals scored in the night’s NHL games. That’s textbook. The other three wagers that comprised this epic night, however, had no blueprint. We had to trust our guts… and the up-to-the-minute Zogby/WSJ Poll.

The four components of the night’s wagering:

• $20: That the 10 NHL teams taking the ice would score 28.5 or more goals combined.
• $18: That Democrat Claire McCaskill (above, watching the returns) would oust Republican incumbent Jim Talent of Missouri for that state’s U.S. Senate seat.
• $18: That Democrat Jon Tester would oust Republican incumbent Conrad Burns of Missouri for that state’s U.S. Senate seat.
• $20: That Massachusetts Ballot Question #1 would pass (this represents a personal bet with an acquaintance).

Hey, how often does election day come along? Once a year? Sometimes you have to go all-out and let it ride on a couple of Democratic challengers and the ability of food stores in Massachusetts to sell wine. Yes, that’s what was up for debate as ballot initiative #1 here in the Bay State. The liquor stores have all the wine business and the grocery stores want in. Our contention was that they would get their wish.

Boy did we misread Massachusetts residents on this one. From the minute ballots started being counted, “No” took a commanding lead, at one point garnering 61 percent of voter support with 20 percent of the precincts reporting. While the hopes of food stores and the Sports Truth were lifted briefly as “Yes” clawed up to 45 percent around 9:32, the race was over and done with by 10:01.

We were devastated, as the first portion of our epic parlay to be decided eliminated the possibility of a sweep. But we weren’t as downtrodden as the real proponents of Question One, who spent $3.5M on ads and threw a party at the Westin Hotel in Copley Square to celebrate what they were certain would be a landslide win.

Presumably, wine was the beverage of choice, and presumably, plenty was consumed after the ballot question was officially shot down, 56 percent to 42 percent. Some local news cameras were on hand, panning the room and showing dejected supporters drowning their sorrows. I’m not kidding.

The early NHL games didn’t bode well for us either. A pair of 3-2 OT games settled by shootouts may be fun to watch, but not if you need an average of six goals to pull out an aggregate wager. Luckily, the gambling gods smiled upon us and delivered the badly-needed 6-5 contest. The L.A. Kings, bless their souls, caught fire and got Colorado goaltender Jose Theodore pulled. We were still in this thing.

Still, at 27 goals and two low-scoring games still in the third period, we needed a miracle. The Sharks got us within 0.5 when Patrick Marleau scored with under five minutes to play, but as time ran down in the Calgary-Dallas matchup, with the Flames up 2-1, our chances were looking bleak at best.

We had just about thrown in the towel when Jarome Iginla fed Kristian Huselius (left) for an empty-net goal with 17 seconds to go, setting off pandemonium here at the office. Always take the over. Remember that.

Meanwhile, McCaskill had finally clinched the Missouri Senate seat as the night gave way to early morning. If there is one thing we can tell you about betting on U.S. Senate races, other than that you may have serious mental problems, it’s not to expect a spectator sport. Can’t they count votes any faster, dammit? Why won’t Talent just concede, trailing by 55,000 votes with a handful of precincts to go?

Nevertheless, the Democrat held on and won us $10. Handicapped as a fairly heavy favorite (-180), Claire ended up prevailing by 1 percent, making those odds seem dubious. This was the same spread enjoyed by our man Jon Tester, looking to accomplish the same thing McCaskill did and oust a Republican Senator in Montana. If the margin of error in tracking polls is +/- 3 percent (and decidedly so, as seen in the 2004 Bush-Kerry race) how can anyone be a heavy favorite if they’re ahead by 1 percent?

Our online bookie has some explaining to do. After he pays up! Though it took until Wednesday afternoon, Tester (left) prevailed in Big Sky Country, equalling McCaskill’s 49 percent of the vote and barely outlasting the established GOP opponent in a tooth-and-nail struggle.

Even more amazing than having to wait until the following day to see if you win a bet is how few people live in Montana. Tester’s 198,302 votes were good enough for the win. For reference, McCaskill drew over a million.

It was a momentous day for the Democratic party, but an even bigger one for the Sports Truth. We pulled out some tough races thanks to an amazing empty-net goal and widespread anti-Bush backlash. Three out of four ain’t bad.

Moreover, our only loss is mitigated by the fact that, despite the food stores’ defeat, we can still go to the liquor store for wine and get smashed anyway. Seriously, does anyone know why we had to vote on this?

[Cue The Pundit’s Patented Loud Booming Voice, Pulsing Intro Music & Pyrotechnics]

30-8 for the year… Calling the winner, and pretty much the total points in the WVU-Louisville game… Calling John L. Smith’s firing by Michigan State… Can anyone even hold the Pundit’s jock? Ha!

The only thing that is reining in the Pundit’s total obnoxiousness and basking in his own glory is the lack of oomph from the Buckeyes and Wolverines, who both almost got caught sleeping by vastly inferior teams. Lloyd Carr and Jim Tressel better get it back in gear this week or face some serious Pundit retribution.

[Cue the Drum Roll]

THE PUNDIT’S POWER FIVE

1. Ohio State. Illinois game them more of a game than most thought. The Pundit thinks they were looking ahead to the clash with Michigan and the national title implications therein.
Next week’s opponent: Northwestern
Prediction: This game could be a slip up for the Buckeyes. They have to be very careful, because once or twice a year, Northwestern could light it up. The Buckeyes will get slightly back on track before the big showdown in Ann Arbor with the Wolverines next week. OSU by 21.

2. Michigan. The Wolverines need to get Mario Manningham some work in this game to get ready for Ohio State. They will struggle a bit a first but should handle Indiana in the end.
Next week’s opponent: Indiana
Prediction: Like Ohio State, this could be land mine game for Michigan. They will get the win here but it won’t be easy at times. UM by 17.

3. Louisville. The Cards exposed the flaw in the Mountaineers with the money passing of Brian Brohm (right). However, this game also showed that the Cards are vulnerable to the run. With Rutgers up next, this could spell trouble.
Next week’s opponent: Rutgers
Prediction: The Pundit is going to take the upset here in a surprise move. Rutgers by 3 or 7 in a barn burner. With a healthy Steve Slaton, the Pundit thinks WVU might have pulled out a win. Ray Rice is like Slaton, but might even be better. He also has a great blocking fullback in Bryan Leonard, who is nasty out of the backfield and who rushed for over 2,000 yards the first three years of his career. The Cards can’t pass the ball if the Scarlet Knights control the clock with their nasty running game at home.

4. Texas. The Longhorns handled the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Colt McCoy is the best freshman QB out there (sorry Mitch Mustain of Arkansas… you’re good but not that good).
Next Week’s Opponent: Kansas State
Prediction: The Wildcats are playing better but the Pundit doesn’t think they have the juice to take this one on the road. Longhorns by 28.

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One week into the NBA season and we have learned absolutely nothing — except, of course, that the Knicks are unbeatable if they play three overtimes.

Miami looks sluggish, but they still have Dwyane Wade. Dallas is struggling big time. Portland may be at .500 for the first and final time this season.

The bottom line is that plenty more has to fall into place before we know anything for certain. So let’s pretend records actually matter this early in the season (like the BCS) and provide power rankings that go strictly by wins, losses and margin of victory.

[Current ranking, followed by preseason Sports Truth ranking in parentheses, followed by record thus far]

1. (12) Utah (4-0). Currently have a +10 win differential.
2. (18) New Orleans/Oklahoma City (4-0). Chris Paul (below, right) looks great with Tyson Chandler.
3. (13) L.A. Lakers (4-1). Two wins without Kobe says something.
4. (4) San Antonio (3-1). Duncan looks strong, already defeated Dallas.
5. (21) Indiana (3-1). Harrington has best haircut in NBA right now.
6. (24) Philadelphia (3-1). Only loss was to Pacers… the fall will come soon.
7. (29) Atlanta (3-1). Surprising start thanks to defensive effort.
8. (7) L.A. Clippers (3-1). Three wins over Suns, Nuggets and Blazers.
9. (11) Houston (2-2). Both losses against 4-0 teams.
10. (10) New Jersey (1-1). Tough November schedule will tell us more.
11. (9) Chicago (2-2). Hammered the Heat, lackluster since the opener.
12. (16) Orlando (2-2). Destroyed Chicago, beat Wizards, fell to Atlanta.
13. (14) Milwaukee (2-2). Up and down every night; Michael Redd is on fire.
14. (2) Miami (2-2). Sluggish start; Diesel missed last two games.
15. (6) Detroit (2-2). Losing at home to Bucks was a shock.
16. (5) Cleveland (2-2). King James hates new ball, still has to do it all.
17. (17) Golden State (2-3). Monta Ellis (right)… remember that name.
18. (27) Minnesota (2-3). Dropped last three.
19. (28) Portland (2-2). Might not be .500 the rest of the year.
20. (19) Sacramento (2-2). Miller is out, Martin looks like he can play.
21. (1) Phoenix (1-3). Amare Stoudemire starts tonight against Spurs.
22. (20) Seattle (1-3). Would be 2-2 if Allen made those FTs in Miami.
23. (22) Toronto (1-2). Chris Bosh has been impressive in last two (1-1).
24. (23) Washington (1-2). Lead the league in scoring.
25. (26) Charlotte (1-2). Adam Morrison can score at any level (16 ppg).
26. (30) New York (1-3). Unbeatable in third OT!
27. (25) Memphis (1-3). Three losses were close, tough November schedule.
28. (8) Denver (0-2). Two losses by a total of four points.
29. (15) Boston (0-3). Doc Rivers needs to figure out who to play.
30. (3) Dallas (0-3). Not scoring, no defense, now no Howard.

51 points.

That was the margin I enjoyed going into Sunday night’s much-anticipated Colts-Patriots battle, with my star receiver, Reggie Wayne, still to play and my opponent enjoying the services of both Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. We were cautiously optimistic, but would need almost every one of those 51 points to hold on for a gut-wrenching, desperate fantasy football win.

Mr. Britney Spears, a team that may have to rename itself Britney’s Divorce Lawyers in light of recent events, wouldn’t have had that cushion to begin with were it not for a complete team effort in the 1:00 and 4:00 games.

There was no margin for error. The Boss Bombers, led by a general manager for whom The 40-Year-Old Virgin is not just a movie but an inevitability, somehow held a firm grasp on first place at 7-1. We came in at 4-4 and battling for our playoff lives. Everything had to click for us Sunday.

For the second straight week, giving Philip Rivers the start at QB over Drew Brees (the irony) proved inadvisable. But aside from that, it was smooth sailing right up until the night game. Larry Johnson ran for 172 yards and a touchdown, then offered this quote after the game to further motivate his teammates.

“I’m a little disappointed because I feel we did leave 200 yards of rushing on that field,” LJ said. “The way we were going out there and just pushing them backward and shakings things up, we should have done even more.”

That’s the kind of attitude we’d need if we were going to knock off the Bombers, and LJ’s teammates responded. Tony Gonzalez caught a pair of TD passes. Chester Taylor was able to grind out 96 yards rushing and catch eight passes out of the backfield for 14 points at the other running back spot. Mark Clayton got into the mix with eight catches of his own, while San Diego’s defense notched two turnovers — one a fumble returned for a score — against the beleaguered Browns.

But the game ball goes, without question, to Javon Walker (above). We drafted Javon high and had big expectations for him coming into the year, and while he’s played some good football, this served as his coming out party — and we’re not talking Neil Patrick Harris style.

With six receptions for 134 yards and two TDs, and a 72-yard reverse that also went for a touchdown, Walker established himself as a premiere threat in this league — and staked us to the 51-point edge we’d take into the Pats-Colts bloodbath. Little did we know how vital that would be.
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Sometimes, it’s just not your day.

Sometimes, if you’re a gambler associated with the Sports Truth, it’s just not your year. But there is often a silver lining, even in the deepest of slumps.

Take this past weekend for example. Sure, our staff was swept in four NFL wagers (for fun, using Monopoly money, of course), the greatest culprit being the previously unbeaten Chicago Bears.

Seriously, who gets crushed by the Dolphins? At home! That right there was a sign that it was not to be this weekend, but things deteriorated futher. U.S currency was also placed in the hands of San Diego, Green Bay and Tennessee, all of which failed — demonstratively — to meet the expectations of our experts.

Why anyone would bet money on a game involving the Jacksonville Jaguars, we may never know. Can anyone figure that team out? With Vince Young and the Titans coming off some good games, we figured they could get it done with 9.5 points. Alas, they needed 30.5. Tennessee was annihilated, 37-7.

All was not lost, however, thanks to an impromptu NHL wager on Saturday. Yes, you read that correctly. And it gets better. Drawing upon a dearth of hockey wisdom (i.e., a complete guess), we were certain that more than 72.5 goals would be tallied in the evening’s 12 tilts. Victory was certain… and would taste sweet.

Actually, it was a bit stressful. The Islanders’ Rick DePietro did his thing, allowing four goals on 19 shots, but New York could only score one of its own. New Jersey and Montreal engaged in a typical 2-1 snoozefest. We were well off the pace early, but things turned in our favor when the Bruins and Lightning exploded for seven goals in the second period alone en route to a 6-5 overtime thriller.

Not sure who won, but that’s inconsequential, of course. Coming down the home stretch, our teams — all of them — lit the lamp 64 times with two 10:30 games (does anyone watch these?) to go. It was gut-check time.

With just one goal scored by the Canucks, Avalanche, Sharks and Penguins in their respective first periods, our prospects looked only slightly less grim than the NHL’s future. But things picked up in the second period, and 33 seconds into the final frame, San Jose’s Joe Thornton (left) fed Mike Grier for the decisive 73rd goal. Pandemonium ensued at a New York sports bar.

Pittsburgh’s Dominic Moore added an insurance goal a minute later, but by that point, our staff members were too busy drenching each other in champagne and spending our newfound riches to care. It was one for the ages — and proof that you never know when the gambling gods may smile down upon you.

This weekend’s compulsive gambling lesson learned: Always take the over when it comes to betting on 12 NHL games aggregately. Always.