The Sports Truth

In his popular Tuesday Morning Quarterback article this week, Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN.com decided to give his readers a “gambling tip” with this nugget: “Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, home teams in the divisional round are 51-13, a .796 winning figure.”

That’s great, Gregg, but for those of us who actually DO gamble (apparently being Baptist does not allow Gregg to bet, and he hides behind the classic excuses such as “wagering only brings regret and sorrow.” Um, Gregg, you forgot money and glory, but those are only minor things) we know of a little thing called the spread.

Would you be surprised if the Bears won their home playoff game? No. Would you be surprised if they won by 10 points? Maybe. That’s the point of the spreads (no pun intended); otherwise Vegas would be losing at a 4-to-1 clip. As my father always says, there’s a reason casinos look so nice.

Nevertheless, Gregg makes a good point. Home teams win games. Considering all four home teams won last week and only Seattle didn’t cover, it would seem reasonable to stick with the home teams again (something I neglected to do last week - but I was 4-0 on the over/under!).

Besides the Chicago/Seattle game, the spreads of the other three games are below a touchdown, something certainly reasonable for home teams to cover. Yet, despite last week, I still feel like I’m making a mistake by taking the favorites. A mistake on par with The Pundit’s Fiesta Bowl “prediction” of “Sooners by 14 in the least-anticipated bowl all year.”

Good call, genius. It isn’t hard to have a “gaudy” winning percentage when you’re only picking winners. I went 5-0 on BCS games against the spread by the way - although I admit I changed my OSU/Florida pick only after another Sports Truth staffer, Michael Brian, picked OSU. I was going to go with OSU, but after Michael backed OSU, well, his record speaks for itself.

On to the picks…

[Last week's record: 3-1. Versus spread: 1-3. Over-under: 4-0]

Indianapolis (+4.0) at BALTIMORE / over-under 41.5

There are two things you need to know about this game. First, every Ravens fan, including a friend of the Sports Truth, James Alexander, is betting their whole stash on the Colts. They all recognize that the 13-3 record is inflated by:

1. A freak win over San Diego
2. The fact that they’re not even as good as a 12-4 team.

Second, every Patriots fan is rooting for Baltimore to win (not expecting, but rooting for Baltimore to win for fear they’re going to lose) because they don’t want to go to Indianapolis to play Peyton Manning. Not that they wouldn’t win, but Baltimore is a much friendlier proposition.

I’d have to guess the few thousand Chargers fans (cheap shot at San Diego’s attempt to not have Patriots fans attend the contest Sunday by restricting sales to California residents only) are rooting for Baltimore as well, but more for revenge purposes. As for the over/under, I think we all learned last week that Indianapolis’ offensive numbers are inflated.

The Pick: Indianapolis 28, Baltimore 10

Philadelphia (+5.0) at TEAM KATRINA / over-under 49.0

Okay, so maybe Team Katrina didn’t come through with the undefeated home record, as I predicted early in the season. But emotionally, what is that much different about Saturday night’s game against the Eagles and their first home game of the season against the Falcons?

Isn’t this just as big? Wouldn’t we all be surprised if the place was not rocking? Not only is it the first playoff game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina, it’s only the second time since 1992 that the Saints have even made the playoffs (interestingly, that 1992 game was against the Eagles, whom they lost to, 36-20).

Besides the obvious home playoff implications for New Orleans, Andy Reid and/or Jeff Garcia have to catch up to the Eagles sometime, right? I know I lauded Garcia a few weeks ago, but that wasn’t a road playoff game.

The Pick: Team Katrina 24, Philadelphia 21

Seattle (+9.5) at CHICAGO / over-under 36.5

I’m starting to feel like Chicago is the playoffs version of the Jaguars. Would any result in this game surprise you? If Chicago won 41-7, would anyone be shocked? How about 28-10 Seattle, with Grossman throwing 7 INTs? Or the Bears defense coming up with a late defensive TD to win 35-31?

None of this would surprise me, which makes the game nearly impossible to pick. I guess the only thing we can say is that, unlike the Jaguars, the Bears have been far more consistent with winning football games, and the .796 win percentage of home teams in the Divisional Round speaks for itself.

Top it all of with the fact that Seattle really shouldn’t have beaten the Cowboys last week (I refuse to acknowledge they won, but instead say that Dallas snatched defeat from the jaws of victory) and did not look good, I simply can’t see Seattle winning this Sunday. I can see them covering a close, higher-scoring game, however.

The Pick: Chicago, 35, Seattle 31

New England (+4.5) at SAN DIEGO, Over/Under 46.5

After the Patriots dispatched the Jets last weekend, Sports Truth founder Levi Matthews and I tried to guess the Patriots/Chargers spread. We both came to the classic “Vegas doesn’t know either” line of Patriots +4.5, and were not surprisingly correct.

The interesting thing about that, though, is that Levi would take the Pats, while I’m taking the Chargers. Many of you may recall that a few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of the bye in terms of winning the Super Bowl, and to expound on that, I believe the effect of a bye is no more prevalent than in the Divisional Round.

The stats of the home team speak for themselves - whether that’s a product of rest, playing at home, or whatever - but the psychological aspects of the bye are just as profound. At least in conference championship games, both teams know the other was a wreck the following Monday as well, bye or not. But the prospect of going into San Diego knowing they’re well rested and (in the case of the Chargers) well juiced has to be daunting.

Even for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

That being said, much like the Chicago game, if the Patriots won, no one would be surprised. Brady and Belichick vs. Rivers and Schottenheimer is about as much of a mismatch as you can get. Does LaDainian Tomlinson vs. anyone make up for the large handicap the QB and coach are playing with?

I’d say so. However, as a biased writer, I believe all the Pats need to do is get by San Diego and a trip to Miami is theirs. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.

The Pick: San Diego 31, New England 24

1. (4) Dallas (29-8). A staggering 29-4 since their 0-4 start. All four losses have come on the road. The Mavericks are also playing better defense — holding the Suns, Nuggets and Jazz under 100 points in recent wins.
2. (1) Phoenix (27-8). Steve Nash’s 21 assists with just one turnover against Cleveland is one of the most impressive lines I’ve seen all season. An even more telling stat about the Suns: Against Cleveland, they did not have a 20-point scorer, but still scored 110 points.
3. (2) San Antonio (26-11). Both Phoenix and Dallas appear to be the better teams at this point, but the Spurs still have a shot at 60 wins and you won’t want to see them in the playoffs.
4. (3) Utah (24-11). Holding on after their strong start. Jazz look like they will stay in the top half of the West for the entire season. They lost three out of seven against San Antonio, Dallas and Houston, but Deron Williams led them to a big win over Denver.
5. (6) L.A. Lakers (23-13). Kobe Bryant has held the team above water without Odom, but back-to-back blowout losses on the road in Memphis and Houston are troubling.
6. (11) Cleveland (22-13). Cavs are in the middle of a brutal seven-game west coast road trip. A few wins could give LeBron James and company a comfortable advantage in the East.
7. (10) Orlando (22-14). Dwight Howard’s 30 and 25 the other night was about as impressive as Nash’s 21 assists last night. As long as Grant Hill stays healthy, the Magic have enough to stay at the top of the East.
8. (5) Detroit (20-13). They’re 2-3 without Billups, and just 2-5 in their last seven games. The Pistons will be fine when he returns, but they are not very good with Carlos Delfino and Will Blalock running the point.
9. (12) Washington (20-14). An amazing 11-3 in their last 14 with all three losses coming on the road. In the Eastern Conference, that is a huge run.
10. (9) Denver (17-16). Struggling at 1-6 in their last seven with Allen Iverson. That’s even more proof that Carmelo Anthony is one of the five best players in the NBA and A.I. is not.
11. (15) Minnesota (17-16). Kevin Garnett is playing like an MVP. He is one of only three players averaging 20 and 10 and he is the only one averaging at least 22/12.
12. (8) Houston (23-13). Rockets are 7-3 since Yao Ming’s injury. How long can they keep it up? Will he return? Both are doubtful.
13. (7) Chicago (20-17). Still an up and down team. They’ve lost five out of six, with their only win in that stretch coming against Detroit.
14. (13) Indiana (20-16). Uninspiring team that will hover around .500 all season. They won three in a row against bottom of the barrel teams (Atlanta, New Orleans/Oklahoma City and Boston).
15. (15) Golden State (18-19). Matt Barnes has been great. Every player they have picked up off the scrap heap has played well.
16. (20) L.A. Clippers (17-19). It’s amazing how average this team is, but they are still just 5-13 on the road. They are playing better of late, but the Clips need road wins to get back in to the West race.
17. (21) Milwaukee (16-19). I told you all five Central Division teams would make the playoffs, but the loss of Michael Redd will hurt the Bucks’ chances.
18. (23) Toronto (16-20). A month ago I told you this was the team to watch in the Atlantic Division. The loss to New Jersey was tough, but wins over Washington and Milwaukee will help their playoff chase.
19. (22) New Jersey (16-19). I’m not convinced the Nets will hold off the Raptors or the Knicks… or even the Celtics if they decide to make a push when Paul Pierce returns.
20. (17) Miami (15-19). The Heat are getting just what they need with Shaq out. They are only a half game out of the final playoff spot with no need to rush the big fella back.
21. (27) New York (16-21). They are winning a few games as of late, but don’t get too excited, they’ll soon lose 9 of 10 and the complaining will resume.
22. (19) Sacramento (14-18). Did you know Ron Artest leads the league in steals? Yeah, I didn’t care either. Bad mistake by ESPN the Magazine for putting him on the cover. He should just go away.
23. (18) Portland (14-23). Zach Randolph… blah, blah, blah. Randolph… blah, blah, blah. At least some of the young guys are getting some time for next year.
24. (24) Seattle (13-25). Just three wins in their last 17 games. Good luck getting Rashard Lewis to return next year.
25. (16) Boston (12-22). When we last submitted these power rankings, the Celtics were coming off of a 48-minute domination of Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets, Al Jefferson looked like an All-Star and Tony Allen was finally becoming a star. Since then, Paul Pierce has not played, Allen destroyed an ACL and Jefferson’s scoring has slowed a bit. Jefferson still looks like a star and Gerald Green is a scoring machine, but Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are looking more and more like they should get used to wearing green.
26. (28) Charlotte (10-23). Nothing new from the Bobcats. They are still Giant-Killers with wins against playoff-bound teams every week (Detroit and LAL are the latest), but they still struggle with consistency from their young stars on a nightly basis.
27. (30) Philadelphia (9-26). They were energized for about a week and then they remembered they did not want to win games. Their four-game slide is better for their future… so is paying Chris Webber to go away.
28. (25) New Orleans / Oklahoma City (13-22). They’re just 5-19 since an 8-3 start. No Chris Paul, No Peja, No David West, No Bobby Jackson and No chance this season.
29. (29) Memphis (9-27). I’m sorry, but I don’t understand why Hakim Warrick is not playing more than 20 minutes per game now that Pau Gasol is back. Warrick led the team in scoring 10 times. He went from 32 minutes and 15 points per game down to 13 minutes and 7 points per game. I don’t understand what he did to lost that much time. I would think the Grizzlies would find more time for Warrick and less time for Dahntay Jones.
30. (26) Atlanta (10-23). Remember the optimism surrounding their 4-1 start? Yeah, that faded faster than Mike Vick and the Atlanta Falcons.

Looks like we will now find out if soccer has what it takes to make it in the U.S. of A. After much speculation about joining Major League Soccer after being demoted from both the English national team and his club team, Real Madrid, David Beckham is coming to America.

In the week leading up to the 2006 MLS Cup Championship the owners passed a rule that would allow teams to spend any amount of money over the salary cap to acquire a player. Many immediately dubbed this rule the “Beckham Rule” - and for good reason, it turned out.

Beckham has been signed by the L.A. Galaxy for a whooping $250 million for five years. This contract easily becomes the largest contract ever given a professional athlete in the U.S., topping the Alex Rodriguez deal of $250 million for 10 years signed in 2000 with the Texas Rangers.

David Beckham brings to U.S. soccer a face that the world will recognize - and relate to the MLS. This isn’t like when Pele came over to the long-defunct North American Soccer League at the end of his career. Teams in both Spain and England still wanted Beckham to play for them and he picked MLS. The other side of the ocean will now take notice of MLS, credibility it desperately needs.

Despite what many people say, Beckham can still play. He scored a goal in the World Cup this year and is merely 31 years old. He is the master of the free kick and set piece. American star Landon Donovan, now his teammate, has to be on his hands and knees thanking the powers that be for getting him the “Lord of the Cross.”

Remember when Michael Jordan returned to play the Bulls the first time with the Wizards, or when Shaq went back to L.A. to face the Lakers? Everyone had to be at those games or see them on TV. Beckham will make every game he plays an event, and people who have never attended a soccer game will be looking to get a peak at who David Beckham really is.

There is a reason David picked L.A. to play for. He wants to be the biggest star there is and that can only be accomplished in two places, L.A or N.Y. Beckham is the quintessential superstar in every sense of the word. He’s the most recognizable athlete in the world, the former captain of the English national team, and married to Victoria Beckham (a.k.a. Posh Spice).

He’s a rock star and a star athlete rolled into one. That said, it’s a lot of money to spend for a league that is still in the red every year. But at some point they had to make a move and see if the league can stand on its own. Expect a few other stars to follow Beckham’s footsteps, as a lot of stars look up to him and will listen if he tells them MLS is where they want to be.

If every NHL game ended like this, we might actually watch the NHL on a regular basis. Okay, not really. But still, check out this bizarre sequence from the Edmonton-Dallas game on January 4, in which Patrick Stefan fans on an empty net opportunity that would have clinched it for the Stars, who when surrender the game-tying goal to Ales Hemsky of the Oilers with two seconds left:

One was the iron man who played in 2,632 consecutive games.

One was the hitting machine who won eight batting titles.

Both were voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame this week, but their achievements were overshadowed by a man who wasn’t: A slugger who shattered Roger Maris‘ single-season home run record, and who many credited with saving the game in the late 1990s, but later fell from grace because of suspected steroid use.

The name of Mark McGwire was included on just 128 of the 545 ballots (23.5 percent) cast by baseball writers who took part in the voting. Far short of the 75 percent needed for induction, McGwire’s rejection is an encouraging sign that writers will not look the other way regarding the sport’s steroids era - even if the league itself will.

McGwire, 43, retired after the 2001 season, his 583 career home runs good for seventh all-time. As concern over steroid use grew, McGwire came under increasing suspicion in retirement. It came to a head when he refused to answer questions about steroid use during Congressional hearings in March 2005.

McGwire repeatedly stated he would not discuss the past, a silence overwhelmingly viewed by baseball writers who take part in the Hall of Fame voting as an admission that he took steroids while playing. The fact that he would not publicly acknowledge doing so, at the hearing or since then, only made matters worse.

New inductees Tony Gwynn, the perennially prolific hitter, and Cal Ripken, Jr., the shortstop who broke Lou Gehrig’s consecutive games played streak in 1995, offered differing opinions on McGwire.

“The fact that Mark didn’t get in, I think it’s more of people making a statement about the Congressional hearings than it is what he was able to do on the baseball field,” Gwynn said. “I don’t mind saying I think he’s a Hall of Famer. I do.”

“When I sit and look at myself, I don’t think it’s my place to actually cast judgment,” Ripken said. “I honestly believe the truth will be known. It saddens me that baseball as a whole had to go through this process and had the integrity of the game be questioned because of steroid use.”

A vague indictment - and one that may prove telling. It remains to be seen whether the verdict on McGwire has a trickle-down effect on Hall of Fame chances of others linked to steroids:

• Rafael Palmeiro, one of four players with more than 3,000 hits and 500 homers, who failed a drug test in 2005.
• Sammy Sosa, whose home run battle with McGwire in 1998 entranced much of the nation, but who has also been linked to steroid use and offered unrevealing testimony at the 2005 hearings.
• Barry Bonds, who eclipsed McGwire’s single-season record with 73 home runs in 2001 and needs only 22 homers to pass career leader Hank Aaron, but who. remains under investigation by a federal grand jury in connection with the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO) steroid-distribution case.

One can only hope that all three are stonewalled by the writers, who appear willing to protect the integrity of the game and the Hall of Fame. Cooperstown should be a shrine to the elite, and if evidence exists that a player would not qualify without the aid of performance enhancing drugs, he cannot in good conscience be admitted.

Tom Coughlin will remain the coach of the New York Giants for at least one more year, and was awarded a one-year contract extension that extends his deal through the 2008 season, the New York Times reports.

His head was rumored to be on the chopping block after collapsing down the stretch and barely clinching the NFC’s last wild card berth after a 6-2 start, but a meeting with team president John Mara left the front office convinced he should not be cut loose.

“What we wanted to hear from him is what exactly is his plan going forward,” Mara told reporters. “We wanted to hear those answers and we heard them.”

Coughlin, who went 24-24 in the first three seasons of the four-year deal he signed, and who has presided over first-round playoff defeats the past two years, sounded like a man who did not understand the fuss. He said he never felt as if his job was in jeopardy.

“Everything we talked about was getting the Giants better,” Coughlin told the Times. “I really don’t view time spent in that fashion, worried about my future, as time well spent.”

The Giants’ late-season collapse forced the owners to consider firing him, especially after losing a handful of winnable games and scraping into the postseason almost by default. With one year left on his contract, New York - which abhors “lame duck” contracts - decided it would either extend his deal or cut Coughlin loose, rather than letting him play out the deal.

Coughlin’s coaching hampered the team at times, but New York’s downfall coincided with a rash of injuries. The Giants played most of the second half of the season without defensive end Michael Strahan, linebacker LaVar Arrington, left tackle Luke Petitgout and receiver Amani Toomer. Several other starters missed multiple games on defense and on the offensive line that resulted in myriad miscommunications and penalties.

“Tom Coughlin is our coach for 2007 and hopefully for many years after that,” Mara said. “That’s the final decision.”

The operative word being hopefully. It’s not often that you witness a coach receive a contract extension under such circumstances - effectively receiving an ultimatum. In giving him a one-year extension, it’s as if the organization said, “Well, Coach, if we were more confident right now, we’d be giving you a three- or four-year extension. But we’re not. However, we don’t quite think you deserve to get fired. Yet.”

Which is probably the way it should be. Basically, the Giants had better improve next year or Coughlin will be out the door. He didn’t do enough this year to warrant the organization’s confidence, but he alone wasn’t responsible for the disappointments Giant fans endured. But this is it. There will be no more one-year extensions. He’ll either be signed for several years or cut loose.

On the one hand, the Giants have the pieces in place to play better. A free agent signing here and there could make them competitive. On the flip side, with the retirement of Tiki Barber, the aging of Strahan, and the dubiously mediocre play of third-year quarterback Eli Manning, Coughlin has his hands full if he wants to avoid such a quagmire in 2007.

Sports Illustrated columnist Grant Wahl writes today after the five-year, $250M signing of David Beckham by the L.A. Galaxy: “Mark it down: Jan. 11, 2007 will forever be known as the day that Major League Soccer truly arrived on the world stage.”

Never one to be surpassed in being overly dramatic, I tried to come up with something even more over-the-top about the David Beckham signing, but Grant has bested me… for now.

Actually, I’m not sure how accurate a statement that is. Well, we have no idea if it is accurate or not. But is it even realistic?

Personally, I say no, and as a truly casual fan of soccer, I can say that a player like David Beckham is supposed to lure fans to the game. This past summer, I wrote articles for my former employers (contractual obligations prevent me from providing you links to those articles) during the World Cup outlining my increasing interest in the games, even after the United States quietly bowed out.

I even went so far as to try and listen to the penalty kick shootout in the Portugal-England quarterfinal because I couldn’t find an English broadcast (the only word I could make out was “GOALLLLLLLLLLLL!”).

Between my inane attempt to listen to soccer in Spanish and my daily following of ESPN’s British World Cup blogger Michael Davies’ hilarious commentary, it would seem I’d be a prime candidate to be sucked in by Beckham-mania. But I’m not. Maybe this is a knee-jerk reaction, but I don’t see myself attending any of the local New England Revolution matches vs. Beckham’s L.A. Galaxy.

Similarly, I don’t see any of my even-less-soccer enthused friends being fired up about the latest British invasion either. Don’t get me wrong, this has to be a step in the right direction for Major League Soccer, and maybe it will validate the MLS on the world stage. I just struggle to see how this is going to dramatically increase attendance and generate interest.

For the dramatic United States-Italy World Cup match in July, about 10 of us huddled around a tiny TV in Long Island to watch the game, living and dying with each play, just as the fans in Europe supposedly do with their respective club matches. However, for reasons worth explaining another time, the allure of national soccer is obviously far greater in the United States than club soccer.

I do think soccer can be a sport that grabs national attention in the U.S., and in July, it received quite a bit of press from major sports outlets in America. To that end, I believe the way to generate interest in pro soccer is to focus on national teams. Michael Davis had the phenomenal idea of a “War for Independence” tournament to be held every 4th of July pitting the participants in that famous war: England, France, the United States, and Spain.

Think about it. It would give sports fans in the United States something to watch during the long weekend besides baseball, as well as a recognizable date for fledgling soccer fans to associate with a fun international tournament.

The United States Soccer Federation should do whatever it can to get us involved and/or organize more North and South American based tournaments to try and fill the void between World Cups. Sadly, the U.S. declined the invitation to the biannual Copa America - a nation-style tournament held by CONMEBOL the South American soccer federation (the next one is set for 2007).

I’m guessing the USSF has their reasons for not entering, but hopefully the rationale is not that they believe it would draw attention away from the MLS. After all, despite what Grant Wahl thinks, Rome was not built in one day.

Currently 12-21 and in fourth place in the weakest division in the NBA, the once-proud Boston Celtics are struggling once again this year. When it rains, it pours… sometimes from 80 feet away. LeBron James’ near-full court heave to end the third period extended visiting Cleveland’s lead. The Cavs went on to win by - you guessed it - three points, defeating Boston 107-104 on January 3.

I suppose the main question we need to ask ourselves is “does the underdog theory still apply when the game pits a 10-6 team vs. a 12-4 team?” It’s not quite like Detroit upsetting Dallas last week (count it!) because:

1. The Patriots don’t stink like Dallas does.
2. The Jets are FAR better than Detroit is.
3. The Jets have already beaten the Patriots at home this year.
4. Every Patriots fan is jumping all over the Jets +8.5. That’s not exactly a surprise if everyone knows the Jets are going to cover.

Along those same lines, I don’t know of many people who are confident in either Dallas or the Giants to beat the home team they’re playing, so maybe the theory could still hold true. I’m skeptical, but I’m also four games below .500, so take what I say with a grain of salt (not to mention the fact that I was 7-1 using a coin flip to predict the Jacksonville games - does that say a lot or what).

Considering there are only four games, and the number will get smaller as the playoffs go on, we’re going to add some more sports betting wrinkles to my predictions and include a final score, and predictions on the over/under…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 9-7 SEASON: 123-127-7, LUKE’S LOCKS™: 7-11

Kansas City (+7.0) at INDIANAPOLIS / over-under: 50.5

There are two schools of thought going into this game regarding who will win and cover. The first, and most obvious, is that Kansas City - Larry Johnson in particular - presents the worst match up for the Colts because of the power running game the Colts have been unable to stop.

The second is that Kansas City was horrible on the road (3-5), the Colts were great at home (7-1) and the Colts were even good when teams gained 100 yards on the ground against them 7-3).

Nevertheless, this is the same team that lost to Houston. Houston! What/who do they have? Ron Dayne? Ron Dayne had 150+ yards rushing vs. Indianapolis. There’s no way they’re stopping Indianapolis. As for the over/under, Indy’s games have been over 50.5 once in the last five weeks.

THE PICK: Kansas City, 28-21

Dallas at SEATTLE (-3.0) / over-under: 46.5

Today I read that Seattle has lost three starting defensive backs and is starting a rookie this week in their defensive backfield. Then, I remembered that Dallas is not a good team, Terrell Owens leads the NFL in dropped passes, Tony Romo has come screaming back to earth and Seattle still has Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander and Darrell Jackson.

I’ll be honest, too, it’s also a bit of intuition. I knew the Cowboys were losing to the Eagles two weeks ago and I knew they were going to blow the game last week vs. Detroit and I just know that Dallas is going to lay a complete egg this week vs. a banged-up Seattle team. That’s going to give us our under too.

THE PICK: Seattle, 28-10

New York Jets (+8.5) at NEW ENGLAND / over-under: 37.5

We’ve already dealt with this topic a little bit, but here are some other things to chew on so you can make your own decisions. The Patriots were only 9-7 against the spread this year, but easily covered their last three games. The Jets were 10-6 against the spread this year.

The Patriots had the third highest opponent winning percentage at .535 the Jets had the 8th highest opponent, .515. Nevertheless, I can’t forget what my friend Tom, a huge Jets fan, told me about the Jets: “they can’t run the ball, they can’t stop the run.” Good luck winning in the playoffs and beating New England with that aspect of your team.

THE PICK: New England, 17-10

New York Giants (+7.0) at PHILADELPHIA / over-under: 45.5

This is a revenge game for the Eagles, an extension of one of the most frustrating seasons ever for the Giants, and a microcosm of the season. The Giants will take a nice 17-7 lead into halftime against the Eagles and then score on their opening drive of the second half to lead 24-7, sucking all wayward Giants fans (of which there are many) back in.

Once they are too comfortable with their lead, the Eagles will resurrect themselves and get revenge on the Giants for their 4th quarter collapse in Week 2. To end it, a horrible roughing the passer penalty will be assessed on the Giants on the Eagles final drive, allowing them to go in for the game-winning touchdown, breaking the hearts of Giants fans, ending the great career of Tiki Barber and causing Jeremy Shockey’s head to explode.

THE PICK: Philadelphia, 28-24

If you were fortunate enough to stay up late on New Year’s Day, well into January 2, you were treated to arguably the best college football game of all time, if not the greatest football game ever.

That’s a debate for another time, but no one will argue that the game was not - to steal a phrase from ESPN Classic - an instant classic. To that extent, a plethora of articles - written by far more accomplished writers than I - have already been waxed about this fabulous game.

I think Pat Forde even wrote two articles himself (not that it wasn’t undeserved). However, did any of these supposed “senior” writers have the foresight to keep a running diary of the Fiesta Bowl as the senior writer for thesportstruth.com (yours truly) did? Okay, neither did I.

At least not until the second half.

I’m also guessing that none of these esteemed writers will admit that they bet on the game as I will.

Not only did I bet on the BSU/OU game, I bet on the Rose Bowl before it, USC/Michigan. I parlayed the money lines for USC and Boise State, a whopping $5 to win $28. Sure, I bet money, but this site doesn’t pay even its senior writer enough to bet big.

Without much further ado, here is a running diary of my USC and Boise State parlay:

4:30 pm: Tariq, a long time friend of mine and my inspiration for the money line parlay, calls to ask who I’d take in the Rose Bowl, USC or Michigan.

4:34 pm: After minor debate (because neither of us know all that much about college football) we decide on USC, but the +2.5 points isn’t all that appealing. However, the money line of +120 seems a lot more fun. What’s the point of getting 2.5 points? How many games are decided by less than a field goal? Exactly.

4:38 pm: Tariq announces that he’s placed a $10-to-win-$12.50 money line bet on USC and is going to place a $5 parlay bet on USC and Boise State’s money lines. It takes very little to suck me in.

4:40 pm: Luke places $5 parlay on USC and Boise State - my first collegiate bet of the year.

5:08 pm: Kick off of the Rose Bowl occurs, but I’m too busy to make it, trying to make dinner for my roommates before I’ve got to head out at 7 pm for a few hours.

5:47 pm: Both defenses have been impressive so far, but the game is a boring 3-0 after USC kicks an ice-breaking field goal.

5:48 pm: Tariq calls to discuss our bet. We conclude that we’re still in good shape. Michigan’s defense has been playing well, but we expected that. The Trojans’ defense stepping up is unexpected, and good news for USC backers.

6:50 pm: Michigan ties the game with a field goal and we go to halftime 3-3. Boring, but effective so far.

7:05 pm: The USC band leader has just informed us that the marching band will now be performing “My Humps” by the Black Eyed Peas. Needless to say, it sounds muddled and horrible. Why? THAT SONG WASN’T WRITTEN FOR A MARCHING BAND! Seriously guys, there’s nothing wrong with playing songs written for marching bands. There’s a reason Drumline was a successful movie, and it wasn’t the story line.

7:20 pm: USC takes their first possession of the second half down the field for what seems like an easy touchdown (I wouldn’t know, radio is ambigious like that). It’s 10-3 USC and I feel much better about everything.

7:34 pm: Chad Henne is picked off in USC territory on a play that looked like it was designed for the USC defensive lineman who caught the ball. Needless to say, USC marches in for their second touchdown, 17-…. what? I hate college football. USC missed the extra point. That’s the thing about point spreads in college football: you can never trust the kicker. Now at 16-3, those 2.5 points loom large.

7:41 pm: Henne has turned the ball over again in USC territory, this time fumbling, and I’m now assuming an 19-3 lead at worst. With a little over one quarter remaining to play, the first half of the best seems solid.

10:36 pm: Back in the car and the Boise State game is instantly on. In this era of scores constantly flashing across the bottom of our screen along with the score of the game we are watching on TV omnipresent, trying to determine the score of a game on radio is near impossible.

10:39 pm: I’ve finally learned that Boise State is up 14-10 after Oklahoma kicks a field goal. I still don’t know if USC won, but I give a guess of 28-10 to my girlfriend.

10:51 pm: Boise State is driving and has the ball in Oklahoma territory with less than 30 seconds to play. Rather than simply drop my girlfriend off, I’m going to run inside for a few minutes and catch the end of the first half. Still, no word on the USC game. I’m surprisingly not nervous.

10:53 pm: We turn on the game right as Boise State’s quarterback, Jared Zabransky, finds Drisan James on the opposite side of the field, avoiding a sack and creating a positive play. James jukes the LSU defender out of his pants and scampers for a touchdown. At 21-10, Boise State has all the momentum and I’m glowing about my bet. We’re 3/4 of the way home.

11:13 pm: I arrive at my humble abode just in time to watch Marty Tadman pick off Paul Thompson and run it in for a touchdown. A 28-10 Boise State lead illicits a “wooooooooooo” from Tariq via instant messanger, and our bet is all but over. Tariq also informed me he’s laid $10 to win $20 on the Boise State money line. I envy Tariq and his wealth.

11:17 pm: There it is, the momentum shift. The only thing that could derail a 28-10 lead in the middle of the third quarter. Oklahoma just punted and the ball took a freakish bounce, hit an unsuspecting Boise State player in the back of the leg and was recovered by Oklahoma. A slew of cuss words and “that really, REALLY sucked” messages are exchanged between Tariq and I.

11:18 pm: Jesus, that was fast. Two plays later, Adrian Peterson is in the end zone and Oklahoma closes to 28-17. What is it about college games that differ so much from the pros where the second the punt hit a Boise State player, you know that an 18-point lead is no longer safe? Stuff like this wouldn’t be nearly as traumatic in the pros.

11:23 pm: Zabransky drops back in the pocket, rolls left, curls back around right while running backwards and while getting taken down, completes a pass to his lineman. This is, of course, illegal. Flag is thrown. Tariq sums it up best with “can you say meltdown?” while I continue the cliche with “I can smell it. From 3,000 miles away.” Needless to say, we’re not amused.

11:24 pm: “Illegal touching, #69 on the offense.” Is there anything better than unintentional comedy?

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