The Sports Truth

No one liked the movie The Da Vinci Code. But how would viewers feel about The Da Vinny Code?

If the film is as funny as this pretend poster for it, sign us up!

The Sportstruth’s senior editor, Lucas Dwyer, provides his observations and thoughts from the weekend that was.

The weekend started and ended with Sunday’s Championship games. Maybe it was just because I live in Boston, but the lead-up to the day felt like a Super Bowl Sunday, but even better. Everyone adjusted their schedules to be able to catch the games and most people gathered at their favorite football-watching spot to enjoy the games. The best was that while everything felt like a Super Bowl Sunday and a Super Bowl party, we were treated two games, not one game and an absurd amount of pre-game analysis and build-up. The games turned out to be competitive and exciting as well, which can’t be said for many super bowls.

We’ve covered time and again that I’m a Patriots fan, but I was LIVID at Norv Turner for punting on 4th and 10 at the Patriots 36 yard line with nine minutes and change left in the game down by two scores. The punt was fair caught at the 11 yard line for a tremendous 25 yard punt. What did Norv think was going to happen? The Chargers would stop the Patriots, forcing them to go 3 and out (the Patriots had the fewest 3 and outs in the league this year) get the ball back and score twice in under eight minutes? Or that giving the Patriots the ball on the 36 yard line mattered at all? The Patriots were as likely to run out the clock from either 36 as the 11 over scoring a touchdown and if the Patriots ended up with a 4th down and time still left on the clock, a field goal still meant it was two-score game. Even if converting 4th and 10 is unlikely, try the 53 yard field goal! Why not? Nate Keading is a good kicker! Turner should have been fired before the game was over.

If Luke owned the Chargers, he would have made an announcement on the Gillette Stadium PA system letting the public know that Norv Turner had been fired immediately after his decision to punt.

Chalk it up to “that’s why the play the games,” but who would have imagined that the reason the Giants won and the Packers lost was Eli Manning and Brett Favre, respectively? Manning didn’t look bothered by the cold at all, electing to go with just a helmet to cover his head, while Favre was holding hand-warmers to his face repeatedly during the game. There was little noticeable effect on Manning, but Favre’s throws obvious lacked any zip, along with accuracy.

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The Sportstruth’s senior editor, Lucas Dwyer, provides his observations and thoughts from the weekend that was.

Apparently my assertion that the Colts were not going away was wrong.

If I were a Colts fan, this would be sour grapes, but the Chargers got amazingly lucky (edittor’s note: Luke is a Patriots fan). The Colts easily could have and should have put up 35 or 42 points and yet San Diego won without Ladanian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers (you could argue they get better with Billy Volek, but we won’t do that here). Nevertheless, as the aforementioned Patriots fan, I’d much rather play San Diego than Indianapolis.

Can San Diego beat New England in the AFC Championship game if they play without Rivers and LT?

However, while we’re here, how is the early line for the Patriots and Chargers game -14.5? Sports Truth founder, Levi Matthews, believes that the spread technically should be lower than the Jax game, but believes that the Jaguars are a better team than San Diego. Maybe the spread is so high because we don’t know LT or Rivers status yet, and that makes sense, but you’d have to think that if they both play, the spread should be lower than the -13 the Jaguars were getting from the Patriots.

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Jessica Simpson is being blamed for Tony Romo’s poor performance last Sunday and Terrell Owens wants to make sure it doesn’t happen again. When asked about his opinion on how Tony Romo’s new girlfriend should be viewed Owens said “Right now, Jessica Simpson is not a fan favorite — in this locker room or in Texas Stadium.”

Honestly, a pink football jersey? As if Jessica Simpson wasn’t annoying enough already…

The Cowboys lost 10-6 to the Philadelphia Eagles and Romo had what was statistically the worst game of his career, all while Simpson sat in a luxury box wearing a pink No. 9 jersey she proudly showed off for television cameras.

While the demerits for wearing a pink football jersey can be debated elsewhere, Simpson’s big problem is that Romo floundered the last time a well publicized girlfriend attending a Cowboys home game, also against the Eagles. Last December, at home vs. the Eagles, Romo had his previous worst game with then-girlfriend Carrie Underwood in attendance.

“With everything that has happened, obviously with the way Tony played and the comparison between her and Carrie Underwood, I think a lot of people feel she has taken his focus away,” Owens said, mimicking the sentiment held by many Dallas fans. “Other than that, she was high on my list until last week.

“Oh, I got a message for her when we make the playoffs. Just stay tuned.”

On a day when Hell reported a record low of 85 degrees, the NHL accomplished a rare feat by defeating the NFL for the first time in 64 years.

Not since the NFL had it’s last 0-0 tie in 1963 has the NHL ever had all of its scheduled games score more goals than points scored in an NFL game. The Steelers and Dolphins could only muster three points on a rain soaked Monday evening, but Buffalo defeated Washington 3-1 and Edmonton defeated Columbus 3-1 to go along with Boston over Philadelphia 6-3 and Dallas over the New York Islanders 3-2.

“Ice Hockey” for Nintendo; a legendary game in the late ’80s.

While many of the whiny NFLers will claim they didn’t know there was a competition going on, they’re lying. The loss is so devastating to the NFL, Roger Goodell is rumored to have convened an emergency meeting of the NFL owners to talk about how such an embarrassing situation could be avoided in the future. Meanwhile, Gary Bettman was heard telling friends and family that the upset win assures him at least two more years as the NHLs top man.

As a Patriot fan, I have been accused of many things and called many names since 2001. The most common theme is that us Patriot fans do not have any perspective when it comes to evaluating the ability of our favorite team. Critics say that we blindly drink the Bill Belichick kool-aid without being objective. Excuse us, but the man does have three Super Bowl titles and the most wins of any franchise since 2001 (with 85. Indy is second with 83).

Nevertheless, the irony of such accusations is that these same people can’t see the forest for the trees when it comes to the Indianapolis Colts. Stories of the Colts demise is 1) funny and 2) obviously unobservant of the conditions with which they lost their last two games.

The first loss is to one of the best teams in history (there’s my unobjectiveness coming out). Whether you think the Patriots could go 19-0 or are just a bunch of bullies waiting to get punched in the mouth, there’s little you can extrapolate about a team losing to them by just four points. The Colts played the Patriots tougher than anyone else all season, by a wide margin. That’s saying something.

Certainly very few people were condemning the Colts after losing to the Patriots. All the talk was about how the AFC Championship will simply be in Foxboro as a result of the game. The Colts then had the nerve to lose to San Diego, in San Diego. The same team who went 14-2 last year and brought every major piece of their team back (except for their head coach. That’s a whole other article). Oh yea, this game was in the pouring rain. And they were missing Harrison, Clark, and a number of other starters. Six interceptions later, the Steelers are hosting the divisional playoff game and beating the mighty Colts.

Darren Sproles jukes Indianapolis kicker Adam Vinateri en route to a 1st quarter touchdown return. A fitting beginning to a tough day for Vinateri.

Easy now. Remember that part about perspective? Patriots fans know about playing short handed. Missing more than a handful of starters. Playing with a D-1AA receiving core. It sucks, but it’s not representative of your team. Patriots fans know that the team we played in Week 9 and the team that lost to the Chargers is not the same team that’s going to show up in January.

Maybe I see too many roses when I watch the Patriots. But, I also know that the rain clouds around the Colts were only in San Diego.

The Indianapolis Colts have been dealt a major blow with the injury to Pro Bowl defensive lineman Dwight Freeney, whose bum foot has him on the shelf for the year.

But if Tony Dungy and the coaching staff desire to look beyond the Colts’ bench and the waiver wire for for a mid-season pickup, we may have found a diamond in the rough.

Just look at the form - the tenacity! - displayed by Friday Night Lights blonde bombshell Tyra Collette (played by Adrianne Palicki) in the photo below. You wanna go up against this?

In fictional Dillon High School’s annual powerpuff game, Adrianna Palicki looks poised to burst through the line and rip the head off QB Lyla Garrity. Just try standing in her way!

The Colts’ Dwight Freeney (left) is out for the year, but one resident bad-ass TV babe - Adrianne Palicki of Friday Night Lights fame - looks like she’s more than up to the task.

Also in Adrianne Palicki’s favor? The Writers Guild of America strike that threatens to wipe out the second half of Friday Night Lights and just about all other shows this season. There’s no work stoppage in the NFL, baby! Get her in a Colts uni by the end of the week!

It’s gotta be a drag when your NFL quarterback boyfriend dumps you after three years and takes up with a Victoria’s Secret supermodel … and then you find you’re three months pregnant!

That’s the situation faced by actress Bridget Moynahan of Six Degrees fame, and her former beau, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, says his knocked-up ex is trying to make him “look like a jerk.”

That shouldn’t be too challenging!

Since announcing his split with Bridget, Tom has taken up with a Brazilian bombshell, supermodel Gisele Bundchen (who used to date Leonardo DiCaprio).

While the two were vacationing in Paris, Bridget dropped the baby bomb to the New York Post’s Liz Smith - catching Brady off guard with a revelation that surely didn’t please his staunchly Catholic family.

Sources close to TMZ.com say that Moynahan was trying to embarass Gisele and make her look bad.

Which would be very challenging.

Reports say that Gisele has never been hotter happier, despite Tom’s lil’ bun in Bridget’s oven. Sorry. We can’t believe we used that analogy.

A friend of Gisele’s says Bundchen is smitten with her man and that the two will probably marry. For the moment, GB and her QB are headed to Milan so G can appear in the D&G show there.

The three-time Super Bowl champ may have let Peyton Manning get the best of him this year, but at least he can take solace in a nice offseason prize. Oh, and the birth of his first child by someone else.

We lost $25 in the first 14 seconds alone.

Hey, it’s the Super Bowl, and that means the greatest exhibition of sports betting since the Fiesta Bowl last month.

We had to start early.

In addition to gambling that there would be no score in the first 6:30 of Super Bowl XLI, the Sports Truth wagered that the first score, whenever it took place, would be an Indianapolis field goal. Devin Hester’s touchdown runback of the opening kickoff blew that all to hell.

Fortunately, in each team’s ensuing possession, we won that money back. A $10 bet to win $17 came to fruition when Peyton Manning’s first pass fell incomplete. An $11.50 wager netted us another $10 when Thomas Jones’ first rushing attempt garnered fewer than 3.5 yards.

Despite Hester’s opening kickoff return and unexpected signs of life from Chicago throughout the first half (we have $100 on Indianapolis to win, -6.5), when the Colts defense rose to the occasion and stuffed Jones on that first carry, we took that as a sign that this would be our night.

Powered by a 52-yard run by Jones and a nice touchdown pass (really) by Rex Grossman, the Bears took a 14-6 lead into the second quarter, where they had a chance to actually make this an interesting Super Bowl (and a stressful one for us), but squandered their momentum via turnovers.

A sequence of punts and fumbles that had to be seen to be believed turned things in the Colts’ favor, with Indianapolis taking a 16-14 lead into the locker room almost by default. On a side note, Marvin Harrison won us $10 when his first catch of the night was for fewer than 12 yards.

At this point, we had some decisions to make. Namely, whether or not to endure Prince’s halftime show and whether to eat that seventh helping of lasagna. There was not the slightest of doubts that our $100 on the game was money in the bank. The only issue was whether to supplement that with a pair of $20 (to win $48) bets on the under (-22.5) and the Colts -4.5 in just the second half.

We did.

With the Dolphin Stadium conditions getting wetter and Grossman losing control of his faculties by the moment, there was no way the Bears were getting in the end zone again. The two supplemental bets were akin to playing safety for the Colts against a Grossman-led offense: sometimes, gifts just fall into your lap.

The only sour note from then on was when the Bears actually gained 14 yards on one possession, setting up a 44-yard field goal to cut the Colts lead to 22-17 - and costing us, albeit barely, the $10.50 we wagered on the game’s longest field goal being longer than 44.5. Fortunately, Kevin Federline’s hilarious self-mocking ad for Nationwide Insurance softened the blow.

With 13:38 left in the game came the proverbial nail in the online offshore sports book coffin. Four plays after a Colts punt, Indianapolis defensive back Kelvin Hayden intercepted a pass (presumably) intended for Muhsin Muhammad and returned it 56 yards for a touchdown. It was 29-17.

Another Bears possession after that, and another Grossman INT. Dunzo.

Break out the champagne glasses and the motherf*%king condoms. Following its Fiesta Bowl and Election Night mastery, the Sports Truth has proven itself the compulsive gambling authority once again.

The tally:

Total winnings: $150.

Total entertainment value: Priceless.

A few weeks ago, in this very column space, I discussed my apathy for the 2006 New England Patriots season based on their inability to secure a first round bye for the playoffs. As I mentioned last weekend, home teams in the divisional round have a near .800 win percentage, exhibiting the importance of the bye.

However, as many of you may remember, my point was about the likelihood of winning the Super Bowl without a bye, which has occurred three out of the 13 years since the NFL expanded to the 12-team playoff format. This means that of the 52 teams who have qualified for the playoffs without a bye, three have won it all, for a killer Super Bowl success percentage of 5.7 percent.

This all came to fruition last weekend when I picked three out of the four home teams to win their games and advance, a winning percentage of .750, about on par with history. This year, the NFL zagged, giving us two home winners culminating with the dramatic Patriots win. As a result of last weekend, the AFC is guaranteed to be sending a non-bye team to the Super Bowl - as a favorite.

Certainly not surprising to think that the AFC is sending a favorite to the Super Bowl, but considering the chances of non-bye team winning the Super Bowl, it becomes all that more interesting. What, if anything, does this all mean in regards to picking Sunday’s games? Not much. What do we have to go on? The Colts beat New England in the regular season while Chicago and New Orleans didn’t play. We know Brady’s, Belichick’s, and Manning’s history in the playoffs and against each other. Nothing interesting there.

As evidence by the small margin of victories in most of the playoff games so far, Vegas has come out with spreads of Chicago -2.5 and Indianapolis -3, indicating they’re not too confident one way or another either. That’s basically your standard home field advantage spread, meaning that on a neutral field, the games would be pick’em.

This is where it gets interesting. In 2006, the Patriots and Saints were both better on the road than at home. Hmm.

On to the picks…

[Playoffs to date: 6-2. Versus spread: 4-4. Over-under: 6-2]

Team Katrina (+2.5) at CHICAGO, Over/Under 43.0

Last week, home field advantage obviously helped out Team Katrina. It’s the only reason why Andy Reid would possibly punt with 1:55 left and two time outs on 4th and 15. He wanted the people of New Orleans to have something to cheer about (no, Mike Lupica did not demand I write that).

As reader Colin Fisher from Pawcatuck, R.I., points out, “why would Reid go for it on 4th and 10 and then not on 4th and 15? Didn’t he realize that the play he ran on 4th and 10 actually gained 18 yards?” A highly overlooked point. Ron Jaworski yammered on and on about how only one 4th and 15+ was converted in the NFL this year.

Certainly accurate, but out of how many attempts? 5? 10? Not to mention, what about how many 3rd and 15+ were converted this year? Is there all that much difference between 3rd and 15 and 4th and 15 in this punt-happy NFL? Signs point to no. By the way, if you want to see something funny, go to ronjaworski.com and look at the picture of him golfing.

Team Katrina can’t rely on such incompetence from the NFL’s most overrated coach this week, but we gamblers can benefit from something else that’s overrated: the Bears defense. This is not the vaunted defense that was talked about all season and there’s no way they’re stopping Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Marques Colston, et al., this week.

This game also has no chance of being under.

The Pick: Team Katrina 35, Chicago 24

New England (+3.0) at INDIANAPOLIS, Over/Under 47.5

We know the AFC will be the favorite in the Super Bowl against the NFC regardless of the matchup. We know that the spread on Sunday is based on home field advantage alone. However, one thing still perplexes me.

Indianapolis is currently selling at 1-1 to win the Super Bowl, while New England is selling at 12-5. Does that seem like a three-point spread to you? Me either. Other things in the Colts’ favor is that this is probably the worst Patriots team Indianapolis has ever faced, and despite running issues, this is probably the best defense Tony Dungy has ever brought into the playoffs.

Honestly, do you remember those Colts defenses? They were atrocious. And yes, I haven’t forgotten that Ron Dayne ran for 150+ yards vs. the Colts, but assuming the Colts were not getting a bye - and they were not - that was almost a meaningless game. As for the over/under my 4-0 record from the first round took a hit and went to 6-2, but I’m 2-0 on Indianapolis games and will stick with the under as well.

The Pick: Indianapolis 21, New England 17