The Sports Truth

After the McNabb/Brown/Buckhalter scoring change issued by the NFL and the ensuing fantasy football chaos that ensued, I wanted to start this week’s column with a look back at the first round of a typical fantasy football draft and how it would be different if we drafted right now.

Injuries and unexpected performances have turned the fantasy football world into a giant crap shoot. It seems as if, more than any other fantasy sport, fantasy football is quite a bit of luck. For simplicity’s sake, let’s take a look at the draft in the league I’m currently in 7th place, at 4-6 (I had the 9th pick). Here’s our first round:

1. Drew Bledsoe’s Crazy Mobility (DBCM): Larry Johnson
2. Not Gonna Win (NGW): LaDainian Tomlinson (below)
3. Kyle Killers (KK): Shaun Alexander (right)
4. Clara Barton’s Red Cross (CBRC): Peyton Manning
5. Ned…… Ryerson (NR): Rudi Johnson
6. Shaq’s Deputies (SQ): Tiki Barber
7. The K-Federation (K-Fed): Ronnie Brown
8. Bateman’s Chainsaw (BC): Edgerrin James
9. The Gymkata Revival (GR): Clinton Portis
10. Woodcockenator All-Stars (WAS): Lamont Jordan

First off, CBRC threw everyone off by not taking Portis because he’s a huge Redskins fan. In retrospect, that looks like a very smart decision. I’ve also got to hand it to DBCM, who changed his mind on draft day and took LJ instead of Alexander because of the Madden Curse.

Our first round looks more like what the second round should look like, with Barber, Brown, and Johnson, and Portis all taken ahead of Willie Parker, Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, and Brian Westbrook, who are all out performing our first round running backs. That doesn’t even take into account the debacles James and Jordan have been, the injuries to Alexander and Portis, or that McNabb should be in the first round.

A first round drafted now, in Week 11, would probably go like this:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Larry Johnson
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Peyton Manning
5. Brian Westbrook
6. Steven Jackson
7. Willie Parker
8. Kevin Jones
9. Tiki Barber
10. Frank Gore

One could argue McNabb should move up to the #1 or #2 spot considering how many games he has won for fantasy teams this year, but LT (26 points per game) leads all fantasy scorers, LJ is 2nd among RBs with 20, followed by Parker (17). The drop off is almost as dramatic after McNabb and Manning, and considering the unreliable Michael Vick is 4th, that shows how unstable quarterbacks are.

Not to mention, in this Week 11 draft, you could get McNabb and/or Manning and still get Brown, Johnson, Chester Taylor, Warrick Dunn, or Deuce McAllister in the second round. Bizarre to think about, considering some of the RBs taken in the second round before the season started include Willis McGahee, Cadillac Williams, and Reggie Bush. Yikes!

Now, on to this week’s picks…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 10-6 SEASON: 66-73-6 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 1-3

Oakland (+9.5) over KANSAS CITY
Simply a brutal underdog to pick, but we’ve got to stay the course after a rough start to the season. A bad team, Oakland at Arrowhead, one of the worst places on earth to play. Very hard not to take Kansas City here, but underdogs will lead the way.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
Indianapolis (-1) over DALLAS
One week after I rip Tony Romo, we start hearing stuff about how he’s got the second-best passer rating behind Peyton Manning. Well, unfortunately for Romo and the Cowboys, they’re facing Manning this week, and even if their passer ratings are close, the dramatic difference between the two of them will be evident and the farce that is QB rating will be revealed.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over TEAM KATRINA
Initially, I took Team Katrina in the Katrina Dome, but I’m sick of getting burned and in writing my brief analysis, I’ve talked myself out of it. What seems like more accurate, Carson Palmer throwing for 400 yards and 3 TDs, or the Bengals defense (heck, any defense) giving up 49 points? I’m going with the former and believe Palmer has turned the corner with his recovery from knee surgery.

CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Pittsburgh
The home underdogs were 0-3 last week, but the Titans should have won their game and the Raiders almost knocked off the Broncos. Only the Cardinals were absolutely worthless. We’ve got an undervalued team (Cleveland) at home, getting points, against a wildly overrated (somehow) team (Pittsburgh).

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For the fourth consecutive week, Britney’s Divorce Lawyers (who are pondering another name change to Marry Me Britney) delivered a savage beating to an overmatched fantasy football opponent.

In pulling our record up to 6-4 and snagging third place by virtue of an enormous lead in the overall points tie-breaker, Philip Rivers (right) led a thorough team effort with his best game to date.

Despite being 4-0 as a starter for us, Rivers hadn’t really showcased his potential until last Sunday, when he passed for 338 yards and three scores against the Bengals. Luckily for the Divorce Lawyers, our opponent’s T.J. Houshmandzadeh stayed out of the end zone for Cincinnati in that 49-41 shootout.

Inspired by Rivers’ effort at the helm, the supporting cast did what it had to do to bury the B-Town Billygoats early.

Even when they weren’t at their best, Larry Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Mark Clayton, Tony Gonzalez and Javon Walker all reached double figures in points, and the 125-85 rout was on. Now it’s time for a grudge match with a fellow 6-4 squad with sneaky-good players like Rex Grossman and Steven Jackson.

Proving what a fickle beast fantasy football can be, Rivers is getting the hook one week after turning in his best game yet. We’re hoping that Drew Brees can victimize that same Bengals defense Sunday, and continue what has been a very strong year for him, despite his 2-4 starting record for us. Jermaine Wiggins was added to the roster this week to spot start for an injured Gonzalez, which is a big loss. However, Larry Fitzgerald’s return should more than make up for it. At least we’re hoping so.

At this point, I turn things over to my colleague, Lucas Dwyer, for an in-depth account of a bizarre turn of events that impacted his own fantasy football league greatly last week. His account follows the Sports Truth’s favorite marathoner, Jane Murray, in her effort to dethrone the league’s top team — only to be thwarted, stunningly, by a mid-week scoring change made by the NFL.

As of Tuesday morning, Jane Murray’s team, aptly named the Kyle Killers, had defeated Kyle Kalember’s team for the second time this year, 77-69. The win for Murray left her tied atop of her division with Alex Woodcock at 7-3, and ahead of Kalember’s 7-3 team by virtue of a 2-0 head-to-head record. Additionally, Murray was tied with Woodcock and Toby Ralston for the #1 overall seed.

Everything changed Wednesday night when Jane, Sports Truth Founder Levi Matthews and I were watching SportsCenter and Brian Kenny told us about the scoring change.

Reggie Brown, Jane’s player, was no longer going to be charged with a fumble which was “recovered” by Correll Buckhalter and run into the end zone for a 55-yard touchdown. Instead, the play was going to be rulled a completed pass to Buckhalter by Donovan McNabb - Kyle’s player.

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51 points.

That was the margin I enjoyed going into Sunday night’s much-anticipated Colts-Patriots battle, with my star receiver, Reggie Wayne, still to play and my opponent enjoying the services of both Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. We were cautiously optimistic, but would need almost every one of those 51 points to hold on for a gut-wrenching, desperate fantasy football win.

Mr. Britney Spears, a team that may have to rename itself Britney’s Divorce Lawyers in light of recent events, wouldn’t have had that cushion to begin with were it not for a complete team effort in the 1:00 and 4:00 games.

There was no margin for error. The Boss Bombers, led by a general manager for whom The 40-Year-Old Virgin is not just a movie but an inevitability, somehow held a firm grasp on first place at 7-1. We came in at 4-4 and battling for our playoff lives. Everything had to click for us Sunday.

For the second straight week, giving Philip Rivers the start at QB over Drew Brees (the irony) proved inadvisable. But aside from that, it was smooth sailing right up until the night game. Larry Johnson ran for 172 yards and a touchdown, then offered this quote after the game to further motivate his teammates.

“I’m a little disappointed because I feel we did leave 200 yards of rushing on that field,” LJ said. “The way we were going out there and just pushing them backward and shakings things up, we should have done even more.”

That’s the kind of attitude we’d need if we were going to knock off the Bombers, and LJ’s teammates responded. Tony Gonzalez caught a pair of TD passes. Chester Taylor was able to grind out 96 yards rushing and catch eight passes out of the backfield for 14 points at the other running back spot. Mark Clayton got into the mix with eight catches of his own, while San Diego’s defense notched two turnovers — one a fumble returned for a score — against the beleaguered Browns.

But the game ball goes, without question, to Javon Walker (above). We drafted Javon high and had big expectations for him coming into the year, and while he’s played some good football, this served as his coming out party — and we’re not talking Neil Patrick Harris style.

With six receptions for 134 yards and two TDs, and a 72-yard reverse that also went for a touchdown, Walker established himself as a premiere threat in this league — and staked us to the 51-point edge we’d take into the Pats-Colts bloodbath. Little did we know how vital that would be.
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My fantasy football team needed a wake-up call.

Reggie Wayne delivered it.

The newly-acquired wideout caught seven passes for 122 yards and a score, giving Mr. Britney Spears (me) a badly-needed boost at receiver and raising the bar for a group of underachieving teammates. Wayne’s 23 points were not enough to propel us to a demonstrative, 138-91 victory on their own, but they sent a message in the early going that this was a new team.

New name. New lineup. New mentality.

When we suffered a humiliating loss in Week Six to fall to 2-4, we made a decision. This was not about to be a lost season, and if we were going to fall short of our goal (every season’s goal is winning the title), we were at least going down like men. We were going to play smash-mouth football and leave it all on the field. Nothing less than 110 percent effort would be tolerated from here on out.

To that effect, Olindo Mare and the Miami defense have both been issued their unconditional release. They weren’t buying into our philosophy, and are officially looking for other work. We’re not kidding around.

Also answering the bell was star running back and #1 overall pick Larry Johnson. He had been lackluster through the first six games, but ran for 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns Sunday against the Chargers. That was good enough to negate the strong effort from our opposition’s LaDainian Tomlinson. It was that matchup that concerned our coaching staff most. We felt at some other positions, we were stronger. We were right.

In his first career start (for me), Philip Rivers threw for 266 yards and two TDs. A commendable effort and not one sign of the yips. Chester Taylor ran for 169 yards, including a 95-yard touchdown scamper. Tony Gonzalez and Javon Walker each eclipsed the century mark in receiving yards and hauled in a combined 15 balls.

The rout was on. “Warm up the bus” chants rained down upon the defeated Darkstar Dragons. The fact that the Dragons’ GM is also a personal friend of mine, rather than one of the several GMs in my league I don’t know, made the victory all that much sweeter. A win is a win, don’t get me wrong — but the $h!t talking potential is amplified when you can put a dejected face to your victim.

Of course, it won’t mean anything if we don’t back it up this week.

We’re still in 8th place out of 14, and have little margin for error if we want to earn one of the six postseason berths. No more letdowns are permissable.

The slumping Hard Dawgs (2-5) are on the agenda this weekend, and with our 3-4 mark and one-game win streak, we’re feeling like this one’s pretty much in the bag. It’s not overconfidence talking. Just our dearth of talent, and of course, our new mentality.

Smash-mouth, baby. Smash-mouth.

That about sums up the fantasy team of this supposed expert, which will be 2-4 as of tomorrow barring a miracle from Javon Walker. Despite what many considered to be the best fantasy football draft of my 14-team league, I’m on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.

With seven regular season games to go, and probably needing to go 8-5 to finish in the top six and gain a postseason berth, I had to shake this underachieving fantasy football roster up. After pathetic output at wide receiver and three losses by a combined eight points, I decided it was time to drop Deuce.

Then I decided I had to move Deuce McAllister of the New Orleans Saints, a.k.a. Team Katrina, because having four good running backs is not going to do a lot for you when you can only use two of them per week (my league has no hybrid spot).

As my first round pick and the #1 overall selection, Larry Johnson, and the Vikings’ Chester Taylor appear entrenched as my 1-2 punch, I opted to keep Laurence Muroney as my third back and add a quality receiver to supplement Larry Fitzgerald (whose hamstring is a major concern) and Javon.

It was a long dealmaking process, but one that ended well — and leaves me somewhat confident in my playoff chances despite having little to no margin for error the rest of the way. In classic early-stage negotiating fashion, I threw out ridiculous proposals designed to land Steve Smith, Chad Johnson or Marvin Harrison. No dice.

Then, having made it known that I was looking to move Deuce (who, it must be said, would have won me two games this year had I played him over the aforementioned Mr. Taylor), I received the requisite low-ball offers. No way was I going to trade for Antwaan Randle-El or Amani Toomer, but at the very least, I’d gotten some interest.

I was actually pondering another deal when the trade I’d been seeking all along came through. The John Mark Karr All-Stars (classy name) had offered Isaac Bruce in exchange for Chester Taylor. I knew I’d be getting the worst of that agreement, but was desperate enough for WR help to consider it. But then Mailbox Head came through.

I love Mailbox Head. Not just because I’ve been friends with that team’s owner for over 15 years, and not because he’s got the best (albeit the weirdest) team name in our league. But because when he senses a good deal for both parties, he doesn’t get cute. He pulls the trigger. We both needed to hammer out a deal, so rather than trying to bilk each other, we put our heads together and didn’t rest until we found common ground.

With by far the greatest receiving depth in the league, and a strong need for a dependable rusher, Mailbox Head (also 2-3 entering today) wanted to trade me Reggie Wayne (left, not to be confused with Dwayne Wayne) for Mr. McAllister over two weeks ago — but was hesitant, in large part due to the status of his other star WR, Terrell Owens, after the whole suicide attempt / drug overdose thing. Understandable.

But with T.O. looking normal (as normal as T.O. can look, anyway) he quickly accepted Deuce in exchange for Wayne when offered by yours truly a second time. The agreement was finalized not a moment too soon for two squads fading quickly into the land of the irrelevant.

With Wayne and a hopefully-healthy Fitzgerald in the lineup a week from now, the K-Federation, Yo, should be ready to embark on an epic win streak. I can’t help but wonder, however, if naming a team after a proven loser like Kevin Federline might be contributing to its struggles.

The Fantasy Football Draft is a sacred event for all players. Some choose to have a party with all team owners present and make a day out of it, some choose to do a live online draft and some just don’t care and let various sites assign players via pre-season rankings. However, with my league’s online draft rapidly approaching on Tuesday evening, I am in quite a pickle.

My laptop is off being fixed for a faulty power socket, my girlfriend won’t let me use her computer because she’s doing the live draft too and there’s no way I’m staying an hour and a half late at work just to use their Internet. So my options are now to either pre-rank my players and hope to end up with some decent talent or go to the local public library across town and sit at the reference desk drafting my unstoppable line-up. So what is worse — skipping the draft or severely going out of your way to ensure quality selections?

As it stand now, I’ll probably go to the library but with two girls and three amatuers in the league, I don’t think it really matters. I welcome all advice.

Carson Palmer is ready to play.

With his rebuilt knee holding up in practice, the Cincinnati quarterback said Thursday that he will play in the Bengals’ next preseason game. It will mark the first time he steps on the field since the playoffs, when he suffered two torn ligaments in his left knee against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

“I’m going to play. Nothing’s changed. We set out this date a while back, and everything’s been on schedule and I’ve been fortunate enough to progress from day to day and week to week. So, I’ll be out there for the first time this year,” Palmer told ESPN.

Palmer is expected to start against the Green Bay Packers on Monday night, when the rebuilt knee will get its biggest test yet.

Palmer hasn’t talked to coach Marvin Lewis about how much he will play. He has practiced with the starting offense in minicamp and training camp, but sat out the first two preseason games because he didn’t feel ready to give the knee its most crucial test — seeing how it holds up when he’s going full tilt.

And getting hit.

“I’ll get hit. I’ll get knocked around a little bit,” he said. “It’ll feel good because I haven’t been doing that in training camp.”

Lewis has maintained that unless Palmer plays in two preseason games, he wouldn’t be ready for the opener. Teams generally play their starters more in the third preseason game, then scale back in the final contest to avoid significant injuries. How he plays Monday will impact how much Palmer plays in the preseason finale against Indianapolis — or if he plays at all.

From a fantasy football perspective, this is a frustrating scenario. Many drafts are happening this weekend, before Palmer even lines up under center. More will be taking place next week, but with just one preseason game under his belt, can we really gauge if Palmer is fully recovered?

If healthy, he figures to be one of the top quarterbacks selected in this year’s draft. But it remains to be seen if prospective owners’ trepidation causes him to fall, which could have a serious impact on leagues.

The Truth recommends keeping a close eye on him Monday if your draft isn’t until after that. If it’s this weekend, you might want to consider some alternatives, at least in the early rounds. On a completely unrelated note, here’s another guy you should shy away from in your fantasy draft: Terrell Owens.

In the running back’s defense, San Francisco Coach, Mike Nolan, has been to Germany. And the new member of the Jets has apologized for the following remarks, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth running:

“He walks around with a chip on his shoulder, like he’s a dictator, like he’s Hitler,” Barlow said after he was traded. “People are scared of him. If it ain’t Nolan’s way, it’s the highway.”

And a coach that rules with the proverbial iron fist NEVER wins anything. Pat Riley, as coach and GM of the Heat, didn’t just win the NBA title. Bill Parcells has never won a Super Bowl. Lord knows Ozzie Guillen is a gentle, flexible manager.

Barlow is an idiot. We are at least glad he tried to take back his comment: “I was kind of harsh on him, saying he’s a dictator. That’s bad. Saddam Hussein is a dictator.”

(Pssst, Kevan, so was Hitler).

But the running back is just lucky Saddam is so understanding. When reached for comment, Hussein said he had no ill feelings towards Barlow, but was still upset at the former Niner for ruining his fantasy football season last year.

As fantasy football has taken over every office cubicle in the country - and as the NFL sits atop the American sporting landscape - a pressing debate has emerged:

Would You Prefer a Fantasy Football Championship Over a Super Bowl Victory for Your Favorite Team?

I speak from experience. While I agonized along with every yard of the 49ers’ game-winning march down the field years ago, and while butterflies dart around my stomach during tense moments of professional contests every season, I’ve played in fantasy football title games. I’ve cursed, I’ve broken into sweats, into hives, cheered, booed and stood slack-jawed at the results on screen as my team - MY team! - rallied from deficits to bring home the championship.

This has occurred in each of the past two seasons and I can safely hold my head up high to state: you can have your Lombardi Trophy. I’ll take the gratification of superior drafting prowess and in-season decision making. My friends can eat it!

As Jerry Seinfeld once opined, cheering for a specific team is like rooting for laundry. Sure, I’m a 49ers fan. I grew up idolizing Montana. So now I should live and die with each pass by … Alex Smith? I should have rooted for Terrell Owens earlier in his career, but now it’s ok to bash him for the selfish cretin that he is because he’s no longer wearing red and gold? They’re only jerseys, there’s no more personal attachment to clubs. Especially in this era of free agency, you’re following a concept more than a franchise.

The opposite holds true with fantasy football. These are my guys, my squad. My decisions will drive the outcome of each game, as waiver wire pickups such as Joe Jurevicius and Samkon Gado helped catapult the team into championship contention last season. In the world of fantasy football, I’m personally invested in the results and players involved. In the world of professional football, other so-called general managers control who I’m rooting for. Where’s the fun in that?

Face it, when your favorite team wins it all, you never touch the Lombardi Trophy. You’re riding the wave of other people’s accomplishments, complete strangers, often times very spoiled ones at that. Pretty soon, I’ll forget the feeling of my father’s arms clutching his celebratory young son. Our smiles will fade from memory like the career of my boyhood idol. But I’ll always brag to my friends about the years I demolished their dreams of a fantasy football championship. No one can ever take that away from me.

– Levi Matthews

But here’s the thing. While this experience is one that I will not soon forget (or stop talking about, much to the chagrin of my friends), I would trade it for a New York Giants championship in a heartbeat. I might even do the same for a mere playoff appearance. While significant, the excitement generated by crunching numbers, managing a non-existent franchise and talking enormous amounts of trash to your friends pales in comparison to a team you have supported since birth making a run at the Super Bowl.

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