The Sports Truth

The Sports Truth senior college basketball writer, Colin Dwyer, will break down the field of 65, if the season ended today. We’ll start with seeds 1-4.

Now that football is coming to a close, and let’s face it, the G-men have zero chance. I’m willing to go ahead and put the infamous “Sports Truth Curse” on the Pats because not even that can stop them. Clear conditions, Arizona, no wind, Brady with a healthy ankle…thanks for comin’ out New York, enjoy the hot chicks at ASU, and have a safe flight home. Anyway, it’s time to talk about college basketball, and talk about college basketball at length. Since I am the unabashed expert on this website when it comes to 18-22 year old basketball, this breakdown of the 65 NCAA teams is probably as close as it’s gonna get to Selection Sunday. Anyway, let’s get goin…

1 Seeds

Kansas
Record: 17-0
RPI: 3
Thoughts: The Jayhawks just look far better than any competition in the Big 12, which is one of the best and deepest conferences in the country this year. Although I’m a little concerned about their lack of depth, their starting five could carry Bill Self’s squad deep into the dance.

Memphis
Record: 17-0
RPI: 2
Thoughts: The Tigers look to be the most talented team in the country. There is not a player in the country with a quicker first step than Chris Douglas – Roberts other than maybe Ty Lawson at UNC. The frontcourt was supposed to be a weakness for this group, but Dorsey and Dozier have been dominant underneath. Dorsey looks like he could easily be in a football uniform and Dozier is the long, athletic inside presence that gives opposing coaches nightmares. If I had to bet with my every penny I own (a.k.a. $57.95), the Tigers would be my choice to cut down the nets.

Chris Douglas-Roberts, a junior 6′7″ guard, leads #1 ranked Memphis.

UNC
Record: 18-1
RPI: 4
Thoughts: As dominant as this team can be on the offensive end, I was tempted to keep them out of the top seeds because they have yet to learn how to defend on a consistent basis, giving up more than 70 points/game. However, if these guys get into an offensive rhythm in March, they could cruise to the Final Four. I already feel bad for the 16 seed that has to lace them up with the Tar Heels.

Indiana
Record: 16-1
RPI: 25
Thoughts: The computer numbers aren’t yet there, but I still contend that the Hoosiers are a legit #1 seed. The inside – out combination of DJ White and Eric Gordon is harder to defend than Bobby Knight, and the Hoosiers have the pieces around them to beat out Michigan State for a Big Ten Title.

2 seeds

UCLA
Record: 15-2
RPI: 13
Thoughts: Kevin Love. The 6-10, 250 load underneath is keeping UCLA’s hopes for a 3rd straight Final Four appearance alive. Even in a defeat to USC, Love recorded a double double to go along with 4 steals. Don’t get me wrong, players like Shipp, Westbrook, Mbah a Moute, and definitely Collison are very important pieces to the puzzle, but none of them can give UCLA a legitimate low block scorer like Love can. As the freshman phenom goes, so go the Bruins.

Tennessee
Record: 15-1
RPI: 1
Thoughts: This ranking is contingent on what the Vols do at Rupp Arena, which looked a lot easier before Patterson and the ‘Cats started playing up to their potential. You’ve got to love this Vols team though. They get up and down the court almost with the same fluidity as North Carolina, and their impressive depth will only give deadeye All American shooter Chris Lofton more open looks from beyond the arc. The Vols could easily be a 1 seed, but they have disappointed in their last 2 NCAA appearances so they slide to a 2 here.

Duke
Record: 15-1
RPI: 6
Thoughts: As much as I hate to admit it, this Blue Devil team is impressive. I would say even more so than the days of Sheldon Williams and J.J. Redick. Taking a page out of Mike D’antonio’s Phoenix Suns offense during the offseason, Coach K has employed a run and gun style that few opponents in the country have been able to slow. Guys like Henderson, Singler, Nelson, and Scheyer are very young, but they are incredibly talented. If not for a tough loss vs. Pitt (at a neutral site, when Pitt was healthy), the Blue Devils would be undefeated and undoubtedly a 1 seed.

Washington State
Record: 16-1
RPI: 18
Thoughts: There were certain doormats in every league a few years ago. In the Big 12 there was Baylor. In the Big 10 there was Northwestern. Hell, even the all-powerful Big East has Rutgers and Seton Hall. For the Pac – 10, besides Oregon State, there was Washington State, an afterthought on a Pac – 10 powers’ way to the NCAA Tourney. Now look at them. They play a slow, plodding, set offense that bores everyone to death. I’ll be the first to tell you that I hate watching. But it works. They’ve won 16 of 17, and even in their defeat to UCLA at Pauley they made an impressive run late to put a scare into the Bruins. They win ugly, but the bottom line is they win, and with upperclassmen like Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver, they have the leadership to be successful in March.

3 seeds

Michigan St.
Record: 16-2
RPI: 5
Thoughts: Everyone talks about Drew Neitzel. Pre – season All American. The through and through leader of the Spartan team. But look at this Raymar Morgan kid, and you’ll instantly get excited about what MSU can do. Incredibly athletic and only a sophomore, he’s got the tools to be an All Conference player and possibly even more important to his team’s success than Neitzel. That statement may seem blasphemous to you Spartan fans out there given Neitzel’s knack for late game heroics, but I’m a sucker for guys that can not only produce on the offensive side of the ball, but are lock down defenders. That’s just me.

Drew Neitzel, a senior guard for Michigan State and a pre-season All-American, is one of the most overrated players in recent memory.

Georgetown
Record: 14-2
RPI: 17
Thoughts: To be honest, I’m becoming less and less impressed with Georgetown and am starting to think they’re overrated. They barely snuck by a Syracuse team that is down to 6 scholarship players at home, and snuck by West Virginia in a game that they could easily have lost. Hibbert is not the dominating force that many experts believe him to be. His numbers are nearly the same as last year, and when he’s matched up with a physical inside presence (see Joey Dorsey), he doesn’t usually perform. They’re Big East schedule is a joke so we may never find out so good this team can really be until the Big East Tourney.

Wisconsin
Record: 15-2
RPI: 20
Thoughts: Probably the least sexy team in our Top 16 seeds. They have no flashy players, pre – season all Americans, or stud freshman. Hell, they probably don’t even have a preseason All Big 10 choice. But what the Badgers do have is balance, depth, and senior leadership. That’s a recipe for success no matter who your players are. Butch, at 13.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg, has that Hansbrough - effect muscle out opponents around the glass. Complimented with Landry and Hughes, Wisconsin is a legitimate contender for the Big 10 crown, and can easily compete with the best as evidenced from their thrilling win over Texas. This team is absolutely not fun to watch, but they really don’t give a horses’ rear.

Texas
Record: 13-3
RPI: 12
Thoughts: Is Texas better off without Kevin Durant? Well I think Coach Barnes put it best when he said, “We wouldn’t mind having Kevin back for another year?” This team has improved not from Kevin Durant’s absence, but from the maturation of freshman D.J. Augustin and the emergence of under appreciated forward Connor Atchley who seems to be the “glue” guy for this Texas team. Combined with sharpshooter A.J. Abrams and Damion James, the Longhorns are tough to run with on any night, and as they get older, they get better and better. Given their youth, that’s a scary prospect for Big 12 opponents in the future.

4 seeds

Dayton
Record: 14-2
RPI: 11
Thoughts: Well, Dayton was considered for this spot before they lost back-to-back games at Xavier and Richmond, but I just can’t ignore that blowout win at Pittsburgh. Even with Pitt’s injuries, no one blows them out by 25 at their place. That said, I think the Flyers will rebound from their current skid, and take the A-10 from the likes of Xavier and Umass, and make some noise come March. You gotta love their balance, with 10 players averaging at least 10 mpg. This team can run with anyone, and that depth will wear out A-10 opponents as the season goes on.

Butler
Record: 17-2
RPI: 22
Thoughts: Butler didn’t fold after a tough loss to a very good Cleveland State team. Instead, they came back and took care of business at Youngstown State with a barrage of 3 pointers. They continue to win despite the shooting woes of AJ Graves. When Graves finds his shooting touch, this team will be a tough out come tourney time, and could revisit the Sweet 16 and beyond. Remember, Butler gave eventual National Champion Florida fits before falling at the end. Being a mid – major guy, I’m a little biased towards a team like Butler, but even the most ardent power conference fan would have to agree that these Bulldogs are for real.

Butler senior guard AJ Graves doesn’t get much attention, but he’s quietly leading the 14th ranked Bulldogs towards a top four seed in the NCAA tournament this spring.

Pittsburgh
Record: 15-3
RPI: 8
Thoughts: After beating Duke on a neutral court, Jamie Dixon’s Panthers seemed poised for a memorable year. However, injuries have killed them with Levonce Fields being the latest victim. However, they have still stuck together and have gotten impressive wins over Georgetown and Seton Hall. A recent loss to Rutgers only proves that it’s proven tough to overcome injury on a night to night basis, but I think once this team learns how to play together, they will be as tough an out as any in March.

Texas A&M
Record: 15-3
RPI: 42
Thoughts: A member of probably the most exciting college basketball game of the year when they played Baylor to five overtimes before coming up short. A few years ago, that loss would be incredibly disappointing, but remember Baylor is one of the most improved programs in the country, and will probably be dancing in mid – March so, if anything that loss on the road speaks to the character of the Aggies. These guys may not have any prolific scorers, but they are deep and they are huge with a capital H. Any time you start a 7 footer and a 6-9 guy who could probably start for the Texas A&M offensive line, you have a frontcourt that causes fits for opponents. Opposing guards will think twice before driving into the brick wall that is DeAndre Jordan and Joseph Jones.

Posted in College Basketball