To Santana, Or Not Santana, Part II
December 5th, 2007 by Lucas DwyerThe Sports Truth founder, Levi Matthews, and senior editor, Lucas Dwyer, Yankees and Red Sox fans, respectively, spent two days debating the merits of the hottest MLB rumors - specifically their respective favorite teams’ efforts to trade for Johan Santana.
The debaters started their discussion on November 27th and concluded it on December 4th. For the first part, click here.
December 4th …
Levi: Do you wanna stretch before we talk about Santana?
Luke: First off, I love the Yankee ultimatums. Great subplot of this offseason
Levi: It boggles the mind. Just say it’s your final offer and chill the heck out. Why make a deadline?
Luke: Because they want to move on Haren instead?
Levi: But there’s NO way the Twins actually trade Santana for just Lester, right? Right?!? They have to just be drawing this out to get more from the Yanks.
Boston Red Sox LHP Jon Lester is rumored to be heading to Minnesota in exchange for Johan Santana.
Luke: The initial offer from the Sox was Lester, Crisp, Jed Lowrie (who’s good) and another minor leaguer.
Levi: But, how is that offer better than Hughes/Melky?!? Lester has a 4.60 career ERA.
Luke: In what, 15 starts? (editors note: Lester has 26 career starts)
Levi: He’s good, sure. But, is his ceiling as high as Hughes?
Luke: Probably not, but he is a lefty. I guess I agree that the Yankees offer is better. It depends on Lowrie who was the Red Sox minor league player of the year.
Levi: Right.. so I think/pray they’re trying to get Kennedy in it, too.
Luke: For whatever it’s worth, the Sox second offer was Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson (basically where Buchholz was this time last year in terms of development).
Levi: They need a CF/pitcher and they’re asking for that from the Yanks - so I can’t see how thy can agree to any trade with Boston that doesn’t include Ellsbury AND Lester/Clay. If the Sox get Santana and keep Ellsbury and Clay…something is amiss dammit.
Luke: In my world the best ending is Santana going to somewhere other than NY or Bos. Obviously I’d never complain to get Santana, but I don’t like the idea of giving up Ellsbury.
Levi: How can you not want Santana? Thats just “he’s has a cool name and is a fun farm system guy” talking. You have Santana and Beckett and the Sox are in the WS for the next five years.
Luke: I wonder if the Sox would trade Ellsbury and Buchholz. Very similar to Hanley and Anabel Sanchez for Beckett. I’m not sure how the Twins trade Santana. I know why, obviously, but I think 75 cents on the dollar is the best you can do.
Levi: Lester can not be the main player in that deal, that’s insane. And, no, of course they shouldn’t trade him - their owner is 93 and has $3 billion. And, they’ve made like $20million/year in luxury tax over those five years, while the payroll has only gone up like $16 million total in that time. Meanwhile, if the Yanks don’t get Santana, how can they possibly get Haren for LESS? The A’s will know they’re even more desperate.
Luke: Why trade Hughes for Haren? Or Kennedy for Haren? He’s good, but is he THAT good?
Levi: The Sox have one pitcher who has thrown a no-hitter and one who has had cancer… and the Twins get the cancer guy?1?
Luke: It seems like the Twins would rather have Lester than Buchholz because I’m not sure how the Sox turn down Ellsbury and Buchholz for Santana.
Levi: I’m not gonna get over this if it happens; I’ll hate the Twins more than the Red Sox.
Levi: If Minny is holding out for Kennedy, Hughes and Melky… doesn’t it seem like they arent holding out at all from the Sox?
Luke: Maybe they’re not truly interested in the Sox offer or suspect the Sox aren’t serious.
Levi: That’s what I figure. But reports make it seem serious.
Luke: Well, I’m sure the Sox would do what they are offering. But, maybe Minnesota knows the Sox won’t go where they want them to go. Certainly the urgency factor is a lot different for the Yankees than the Red Sox. If either team were to budge it’d be the Yankees and all parties know this.
Levi: But, the deadline has passed, Luke. They’re too busy finalizing A-Rod’s $300 million contract to go back on their word here. The yanks should offer Melky, Kennedy, Hughes and Cano for Nathan and Santana
Luke: Wow. I’d do that from both sides. I wonder if the Twins would consider it. Just blow up the whole team. Why not? Hunter’s gone, Santana will be soon as well.
Levi: Then again, the Yankees do have Farnsworth. Maybe they don’t need Nathan.
Luke: Where do you draw the line in terms of trading for Santana?
Levi: It’s hard to give him and Hughes up… but, really, Ian Kennedy is gonna get in the way of Johan Santana?? Especially if the alternative is the Sox getting him.
Luke: I’d give up Lester and Buchholz for Santana. I’m sure the twins would take that. Crisp, Lester, and Buchholz?
Levi: I dont see why the Sox dont just do it and lock up the Series forever. I’m not high on Lester - if you can get Ellsbury, Masterson has the same ceiling as Lester to me.
Luke: Lester is less of an unknown, even vs. Ellsbury. It’s hard to imagine Ellsbury won’t be as good as 2007, even as brief as it was. But, what is Ellsbury ceiling?
Levi: But in trading the best pitcher in baseball, don’t you need to get back the best pitching prospect possible? I’d holdout for Ellsbury and Buchholz.
Luke: I don’t know how the Sox don’t make that deal.
Levi: Me neither, but the refuse to. The Sox are basically like: Look, we won the World Series. We’ll make a low ball offer, if they take it, awesome. If not, well, we won the World Series with this roster.
Luke: With so much young talent, it’s a reasonable approach, I think.
Levi: Which is correct on the their part… and is apparently working way too well.
Luke: if the Sox can add Santana without giving up Ellsbury, Theo’s a genius.
Red Sox General Manager, Theo Epstein.
Levi: It seriously seems baffling, like some sort of collusion. How can anyone think the Sox offer is better than the Yanks?
Luke: I think you’re underestimating Lowrie. And reasonably so, we know so little about him, but he’s a serious prospect.
Levi: I’m focusing on the pitchers.
Luke: Lester’s pretty damn good. Had some good starts and so bad starts. He’s been a classic rookie.
Levi: Just like Hughes, who is younger and with more potential.
Luke: Well, Lowrie makes up for the short comings.
Levi: People are underestimating Melky, too.
Luke: I agree. The other thing, that’d I’d consider, is that managing young players in baseball is like fantasy football draft strategy. Draft as many RBs and WRs as you can, throw them against the wall and see what sticks. So, 2-3 extra players, however less touted, help.
Levi: Even for someone like Santana?
Luke: Well, as we say, Hughes has 15 starts, Lester has 12 starts, Ellsbury has 30 games. These guys are far from known quantities. Melky is the known at this point.
Levi: I know you cant think this way, but shouldn’t the Twins MAYBE consider that giving the Sox Santana makes them heavy favorites for the next five years? Why make a team in your league a dynasty?
