NFL Wild Card Weekend: The Predictions
January 5th, 2007 by Lucas Dwyer
I suppose the main question we need to ask ourselves is “does the underdog theory still apply when the game pits a 10-6 team vs. a 12-4 team?” It’s not quite like Detroit upsetting Dallas last week (count it!) because:
- The Patriots don’t stink like Dallas does.
- The Jets are FAR better than Detroit is.
- The Jets have already beaten the Patriots at home this year.
- Every Patriots fan is jumping all over the Jets +8.5. That’s not exactly a surprise if everyone knows the Jets are going to cover.
Along those same lines, I don’t know of many people who are confident in either Dallas or the Giants to beat the home team they’re playing, so maybe the theory could still hold true. I’m skeptical, but I’m also four games below .500, so take what I say with a grain of salt (not to mention the fact that I was 7-1 using a coin flip to predict the Jacksonville games - does that say a lot or what).
Considering there are only four games, and the number will get smaller as the playoffs go on, we’re going to add some more sports betting wrinkles to my predictions and include a final score, and predictions on the over/under…
[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]
LAST WEEK: 9-7 SEASON: 123-127-7, LUKE’S LOCKS™: 7-11
Kansas City (+7.0) at INDIANAPOLIS / over-under: 50.5
There are two schools of thought going into this game regarding who will win and cover. The first, and most obvious, is that Kansas City - Larry Johnson in particular - presents the worst match up for the Colts because of the power running game the Colts have been unable to stop.
The second is that Kansas City was horrible on the road (3-5), the Colts were great at home (7-1) and the Colts were even good when teams gained 100 yards on the ground against them 7-3).
Nevertheless, this is the same team that lost to Houston. Houston! What/who do they have? Ron Dayne? Ron Dayne had 150+ yards rushing vs. Indianapolis. There’s no way they’re stopping Indianapolis. As for the over/under, Indy’s games have been over 50.5 once in the last five weeks.
THE PICK: Kansas City, 28-21
Dallas at SEATTLE (-3.0) / over-under: 46.5
Today I read that Seattle has lost three starting defensive backs and is starting a rookie this week in their defensive backfield. Then, I remembered that Dallas is not a good team, Terrell Owens leads the NFL in dropped passes, Tony Romo has come screaming back to earth and Seattle still has Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander and Darrell Jackson.
I’ll be honest, too, it’s also a bit of intuition. I knew the Cowboys were losing to the Eagles two weeks ago and I knew they were going to blow the game last week vs. Detroit and I just know that Dallas is going to lay a complete egg this week vs. a banged-up Seattle team. That’s going to give us our under too.
THE PICK: Seattle, 28-10
New York Jets (+8.5) at NEW ENGLAND / over-under: 37.5
We’ve already dealt with this topic a little bit, but here are some other things to chew on so you can make your own decisions. The Patriots were only 9-7 against the spread this year, but easily covered their last three games. The Jets were 10-6 against the spread this year.
The Patriots had the third highest opponent winning percentage at .535 the Jets had the 8th highest opponent, .515. Nevertheless, I can’t forget what my friend Tom, a huge Jets fan, told me about the Jets: “they can’t run the ball, they can’t stop the run.” Good luck winning in the playoffs and beating New England with that aspect of your team.
THE PICK: New England, 17-10
New York Giants (+7.0) at PHILADELPHIA / over-under: 45.5
This is a revenge game for the Eagles, an extension of one of the most frustrating seasons ever for the Giants, and a microcosm of the season. The Giants will take a nice 17-7 lead into halftime against the Eagles and then score on their opening drive of the second half to lead 24-7, sucking all wayward Giants fans (of which there are many) back in.
Once they are too comfortable with their lead, the Eagles will resurrect themselves and get revenge on the Giants for their 4th quarter collapse in Week 2. To end it, a horrible roughing the passer penalty will be assessed on the Giants on the Eagles final drive, allowing them to go in for the game-winning touchdown, breaking the hearts of Giants fans, ending the great career of Tiki Barber and causing Jeremy Shockey’s head to explode.
THE PICK: Philadelphia, 28-24
