The Sports Truth

In his popular Tuesday Morning Quarterback article this week, Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN.com decided to give his readers a “gambling tip” with this nugget: “Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, home teams in the divisional round are 51-13, a .796 winning figure.”

That’s great, Gregg, but for those of us who actually DO gamble (apparently being Baptist does not allow Gregg to bet, and he hides behind the classic excuses such as “wagering only brings regret and sorrow.” Um, Gregg, you forgot money and glory, but those are only minor things) we know of a little thing called the spread.

Would you be surprised if the Bears won their home playoff game? No. Would you be surprised if they won by 10 points? Maybe. That’s the point of the spreads (no pun intended); otherwise Vegas would be losing at a 4-to-1 clip. As my father always says, there’s a reason casinos look so nice.

Nevertheless, Gregg makes a good point. Home teams win games. Considering all four home teams won last week and only Seattle didn’t cover, it would seem reasonable to stick with the home teams again (something I neglected to do last week - but I was 4-0 on the over/under!).

Besides the Chicago/Seattle game, the spreads of the other three games are below a touchdown, something certainly reasonable for home teams to cover. Yet, despite last week, I still feel like I’m making a mistake by taking the favorites. A mistake on par with The Pundit’s Fiesta Bowl “prediction” of “Sooners by 14 in the least-anticipated bowl all year.”

Good call, genius. It isn’t hard to have a “gaudy” winning percentage when you’re only picking winners. I went 5-0 on BCS games against the spread by the way - although I admit I changed my OSU/Florida pick only after another Sports Truth staffer, Michael Brian, picked OSU. I was going to go with OSU, but after Michael backed OSU, well, his record speaks for itself.

On to the picks…

[Last week's record: 3-1. Versus spread: 1-3. Over-under: 4-0]

Indianapolis (+4.0) at BALTIMORE / over-under 41.5

There are two things you need to know about this game. First, every Ravens fan, including a friend of the Sports Truth, James Alexander, is betting their whole stash on the Colts. They all recognize that the 13-3 record is inflated by:

1. A freak win over San Diego
2. The fact that they’re not even as good as a 12-4 team.

Second, every Patriots fan is rooting for Baltimore to win (not expecting, but rooting for Baltimore to win for fear they’re going to lose) because they don’t want to go to Indianapolis to play Peyton Manning. Not that they wouldn’t win, but Baltimore is a much friendlier proposition.

I’d have to guess the few thousand Chargers fans (cheap shot at San Diego’s attempt to not have Patriots fans attend the contest Sunday by restricting sales to California residents only) are rooting for Baltimore as well, but more for revenge purposes. As for the over/under, I think we all learned last week that Indianapolis’ offensive numbers are inflated.

The Pick: Indianapolis 28, Baltimore 10

Philadelphia (+5.0) at TEAM KATRINA / over-under 49.0

Okay, so maybe Team Katrina didn’t come through with the undefeated home record, as I predicted early in the season. But emotionally, what is that much different about Saturday night’s game against the Eagles and their first home game of the season against the Falcons?

Isn’t this just as big? Wouldn’t we all be surprised if the place was not rocking? Not only is it the first playoff game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina, it’s only the second time since 1992 that the Saints have even made the playoffs (interestingly, that 1992 game was against the Eagles, whom they lost to, 36-20).

Besides the obvious home playoff implications for New Orleans, Andy Reid and/or Jeff Garcia have to catch up to the Eagles sometime, right? I know I lauded Garcia a few weeks ago, but that wasn’t a road playoff game.

The Pick: Team Katrina 24, Philadelphia 21

Seattle (+9.5) at CHICAGO / over-under 36.5

I’m starting to feel like Chicago is the playoffs version of the Jaguars. Would any result in this game surprise you? If Chicago won 41-7, would anyone be shocked? How about 28-10 Seattle, with Grossman throwing 7 INTs? Or the Bears defense coming up with a late defensive TD to win 35-31?

None of this would surprise me, which makes the game nearly impossible to pick. I guess the only thing we can say is that, unlike the Jaguars, the Bears have been far more consistent with winning football games, and the .796 win percentage of home teams in the Divisional Round speaks for itself.

Top it all of with the fact that Seattle really shouldn’t have beaten the Cowboys last week (I refuse to acknowledge they won, but instead say that Dallas snatched defeat from the jaws of victory) and did not look good, I simply can’t see Seattle winning this Sunday. I can see them covering a close, higher-scoring game, however.

The Pick: Chicago, 35, Seattle 31

New England (+4.5) at SAN DIEGO, Over/Under 46.5

After the Patriots dispatched the Jets last weekend, Sports Truth founder Levi Matthews and I tried to guess the Patriots/Chargers spread. We both came to the classic “Vegas doesn’t know either” line of Patriots +4.5, and were not surprisingly correct.

The interesting thing about that, though, is that Levi would take the Pats, while I’m taking the Chargers. Many of you may recall that a few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of the bye in terms of winning the Super Bowl, and to expound on that, I believe the effect of a bye is no more prevalent than in the Divisional Round.

The stats of the home team speak for themselves - whether that’s a product of rest, playing at home, or whatever - but the psychological aspects of the bye are just as profound. At least in conference championship games, both teams know the other was a wreck the following Monday as well, bye or not. But the prospect of going into San Diego knowing they’re well rested and (in the case of the Chargers) well juiced has to be daunting.

Even for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

That being said, much like the Chicago game, if the Patriots won, no one would be surprised. Brady and Belichick vs. Rivers and Schottenheimer is about as much of a mismatch as you can get. Does LaDainian Tomlinson vs. anyone make up for the large handicap the QB and coach are playing with?

I’d say so. However, as a biased writer, I believe all the Pats need to do is get by San Diego and a trip to Miami is theirs. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.

The Pick: San Diego 31, New England 24

Posted in NFL