The Sports Truth

A few weeks ago, in this very column space, I discussed my apathy for the 2006 New England Patriots season based on their inability to secure a first round bye for the playoffs. As I mentioned last weekend, home teams in the divisional round have a near .800 win percentage, exhibiting the importance of the bye.

However, as many of you may remember, my point was about the likelihood of winning the Super Bowl without a bye, which has occurred three out of the 13 years since the NFL expanded to the 12-team playoff format. This means that of the 52 teams who have qualified for the playoffs without a bye, three have won it all, for a killer Super Bowl success percentage of 5.7 percent.

This all came to fruition last weekend when I picked three out of the four home teams to win their games and advance, a winning percentage of .750, about on par with history. This year, the NFL zagged, giving us two home winners culminating with the dramatic Patriots win. As a result of last weekend, the AFC is guaranteed to be sending a non-bye team to the Super Bowl - as a favorite.

Certainly not surprising to think that the AFC is sending a favorite to the Super Bowl, but considering the chances of non-bye team winning the Super Bowl, it becomes all that more interesting. What, if anything, does this all mean in regards to picking Sunday’s games? Not much. What do we have to go on? The Colts beat New England in the regular season while Chicago and New Orleans didn’t play. We know Brady’s, Belichick’s, and Manning’s history in the playoffs and against each other. Nothing interesting there.

As evidence by the small margin of victories in most of the playoff games so far, Vegas has come out with spreads of Chicago -2.5 and Indianapolis -3, indicating they’re not too confident one way or another either. That’s basically your standard home field advantage spread, meaning that on a neutral field, the games would be pick’em.

This is where it gets interesting. In 2006, the Patriots and Saints were both better on the road than at home. Hmm.

On to the picks…

[Playoffs to date: 6-2. Versus spread: 4-4. Over-under: 6-2]

Team Katrina (+2.5) at CHICAGO, Over/Under 43.0

Last week, home field advantage obviously helped out Team Katrina. It’s the only reason why Andy Reid would possibly punt with 1:55 left and two time outs on 4th and 15. He wanted the people of New Orleans to have something to cheer about (no, Mike Lupica did not demand I write that).

As reader Colin Fisher from Pawcatuck, R.I., points out, “why would Reid go for it on 4th and 10 and then not on 4th and 15? Didn’t he realize that the play he ran on 4th and 10 actually gained 18 yards?” A highly overlooked point. Ron Jaworski yammered on and on about how only one 4th and 15+ was converted in the NFL this year.

Certainly accurate, but out of how many attempts? 5? 10? Not to mention, what about how many 3rd and 15+ were converted this year? Is there all that much difference between 3rd and 15 and 4th and 15 in this punt-happy NFL? Signs point to no. By the way, if you want to see something funny, go to ronjaworski.com and look at the picture of him golfing.

Team Katrina can’t rely on such incompetence from the NFL’s most overrated coach this week, but we gamblers can benefit from something else that’s overrated: the Bears defense. This is not the vaunted defense that was talked about all season and there’s no way they’re stopping Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Marques Colston, et al., this week.

This game also has no chance of being under.

The Pick: Team Katrina 35, Chicago 24

New England (+3.0) at INDIANAPOLIS, Over/Under 47.5

We know the AFC will be the favorite in the Super Bowl against the NFC regardless of the matchup. We know that the spread on Sunday is based on home field advantage alone. However, one thing still perplexes me.

Indianapolis is currently selling at 1-1 to win the Super Bowl, while New England is selling at 12-5. Does that seem like a three-point spread to you? Me either. Other things in the Colts’ favor is that this is probably the worst Patriots team Indianapolis has ever faced, and despite running issues, this is probably the best defense Tony Dungy has ever brought into the playoffs.

Honestly, do you remember those Colts defenses? They were atrocious. And yes, I haven’t forgotten that Ron Dayne ran for 150+ yards vs. the Colts, but assuming the Colts were not getting a bye - and they were not - that was almost a meaningless game. As for the over/under my 4-0 record from the first round took a hit and went to 6-2, but I’m 2-0 on Indianapolis games and will stick with the under as well.

The Pick: Indianapolis 21, New England 17

Posted in NFL