The Sports Truth

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 9-7 SEASON: 104-114-7 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 5-9

Minnesota (+3.5) over GREEN BAY
First off, I love that the NFL Network broadcast games have been absolute bombs, with this one probably taking the cake. Secondly, I was watching ESPN after the game and Ron Jaworski started waxing about how Brett Favre can still play in the NFL at a very high level. I don’t know what game Ron was watching, but Favre was awful.

OAKLAND (+7.0) over Kansas City
It hurts so much not to take Kansas City here, but home underdogs, even the Raiders, have an astonishing win percentage this year. Let’s just move on.

Tennessee (+5.0) over BUFFALO
Vegas must be still banking in the SI cover jinx (even though we’re two weeks away now) with this line. However, Buffalo is something like 6-2 in its last eight games and playing at home in December, where no one wants to play. Still, I’m very impressed with Vince Young so far and he’s been winning us a lot of money.

Team Katrina (+3.0) over N.Y. GIANTS
You have to love the NFC. The Saints lose in Week 15 and still clinch their division at 9-5. Meanwhile, the Patriots, at 10-4 haven’t even assured themselves of a playoff spot yet, let alone their division.

Luke’s Lock Alert!!
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Carolina
I must have either not known or forgotten that Chris Weinke was starting last week for Carolina. What a mistake that was. He’s 1-17 as a starter. Enough said.

Washington (+2.0) over ST. LOUIS
Don’t let last week’s win over happless Oakland confuse you. The Rams are still the team that got pasted by Arizona… at home.

Indianapolis (-9.0) over HOUSTON
At least Oakland has a decent defense. I’m not sure what Houston has that will allow them to either score points on Indianapolis, or stop Peyton Manning from lighting it up and ultimately covering the spread.

Baltimore (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
When I first read this, I thought it was a typo. How on earth could the Ravens be giving points to anyone? Then, someone told me that Pittsburgh was 7-7 (who knew) and still alive for a playoff spot, even in the AFC (I think 7-7 in the NFC clinches a playoff birth). Still, the Ravens are much better than Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay (+3.0) over CLEVELAND
A third string QB vs. a second string QB. A 3-11 team vs. a 4-10 team. The second lowest points scored vs. the third lowest point scored. Both teams that were swept by division opponents. I could probably go on…

DETROIT (+5.5) over Chicago
Detroit is racing against Oakland for the #1 pick (they’re currently #2) and I could definately see them doing someting to their fans like beating Chicago in a meaningless game for both teams and destroying their chances at the #1 pick.

New England (+3.0) vs. JACKSONVILLE
The coin flip is 4-1 on the season. As always, Jacksonville is heads, New England is tails.
Filp #1: Tails! New England leads, 1-0.
Flip #2: Tails! New England wins, 2-0.

Phew! I really didn’t want to pick against my boys in a game they should win and need to win. The pick: New England (+3.0).

Arizona (+4.0) over SAN FRANCISCO
As much as I’ve come to love San Francisco this year, they’re still an unreliable team, so I’m taking the points.

Cincinnati (+3.0) over DENVER
Always dangerous picking against Denver at home, but Cincinnati is still very alive for a playoff spot and I like them getting points.

San Diego (-4.0) over SEATTLE
Am I the only one who thinks this spread is too low? San Diego is the best team in football right now (however, those who think these guys are winning a Super Bowl with Philip Rivers at quarterback are incorrect) and Seattle laid an absolute egg at home last week.

Luke’s Lock Alert!!
Philadelphia (+7.0) over DALLAS
I love all the people that are astonished with the play of Jeff Garcia (pictured). This guy was once a Pro Bowl quarterback - it’s not like this is A.J. Feeley coming off the bench here. By the way, glad to see that Tony Romo came back to earth. I almost got the feeling we lost him, kind of like Apollo 13. Was that tasteless?

New York Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI
Why am I picking the Jets? Because the Patriots need them to lose. Considering I’m well under .500 for the year, it seems like a good way to get them to lose is to pick them (uh oh, I just realized I picked the Pats too).

Posted in NFL