The Sports Truth

Before the Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2004, I had a weird dichotomy with my friends who were Red Sox fans as well. This awkwardness stemmed from something that can only be produced by meeting Red Sox fans who are not from Boston.

The reason being of all my close friends who are Red Sox fans, none of them are Patriots fans. The list of football teams supported by my own mini-Red Sox nation includes Denver, Chicago, the New York Giants (twice), amongst others, but never my beloved Patriots. For the New England Patriots, 2001-2004 were the glory years. Until 2004, those were some of the hardest seasons for Sox fans.

As a fan of both, I could at least take solace in my Patriots after Pedro, Grady, and Boone crushed my heart in the fall of 2003. Those Bronco, Bear, and Giant fans were unable to share in my joy.

The vast difference between my disposition towards football and those of the other non-Patriot fans has been very apparent in the last few weeks, culminating with the Dolphins game last weekend.

I’m spoiled, I’ll admit it. But, I’ve also watched enough playoff games since 2001 to know the Steelers last year were an anomaly. Not only were they the first #6 seed to win the Super Bowl, they were one of the few to even make the Super Bowl without a first-round bye.

My point is simply that the Patriots have blown two great chances to put themselves in position to get a bye (losing to the Jets the same weekend the Ravens lost, and losing to Miami last Sunday when the Colts lost their third game) and to me, it feels like a season lost.

Sure, barring a collapse. the Patriots are going to the playoffs and probably will host a home game in the first round against a very beatable team like the Jets, Jaguars, or Chiefs. But, every year the Patriots won the Super Bowl, they were the #1 or #2 seed.

It’s no coincidence that Tom Brady’s first playoff loss came when the Patriots were not a top seed.

The fact that I can’t get excited about the 2006 Pats separates me from my friends. Fortunately, the 2004 Red Sox title has spared me the “spoiled” jeers and insults when I talk about the Patriots, because we’re all still basking in the glow of that championship. Yet I’m sure any of my friends (even the Bears fans, who, if they’re honest with themselves, know Chicago is going nowhere with that offense) would trade their team for mine, in spite of its flaws, despite playing in the AFC. I guess I know what it feels like to be a Yankees fan, huh? I need a shower…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 9-7 SEASON: 95-107-7 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 4-8

Luke’s Lock™ Alert!!
San Francisco (+10) over SEATTLE
I don’t know why, but I’ve really taken to the 49ers this season. I don’t know if it’s the emergence of Frank Gore, the fact that I can’t name a single player on their defense, or that they’ve been dead for so long, no one gave them a real shot this season and yet they’re still in the playoff hunt (albeit barely) and just won’t die.

The 49ers are just fun to root for. How could you not like this team? On a side note, not only was Thursday’s game not available to non-NFL Network people, for reasons unknown to me, the first half of the game was not even on the radio in Boston. For some reason, WEEI (which has a stranglehold on Boston sports radio) wasn’t picking up the game until the 2nd half. I still haven’t learned the reason why.

ATLANTA (+3.0) over Dallas
There’s a really fun rumor out of Atlanta this week that Michael Vick may line up at running back on some plays with Norwood and Dunn injured. This means that the most underrated back-up in the NFL, Matt Schaub, will be quarterback and any Patriots fan can tell you what a great move that is for the Falcons. In my weekly, obligatory rip on Vick, when the Falcons scared the Patriots a few years ago and lost by three, 31-28, it was Schaub and his three passing TDs leading the way, not Vick.

New York Jets (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
A brutal, albeit predictable, loss to the Bills last week crushed several dreams around the New York metropolitan area (not to mention a certain living room in Boston). The question is now whether he remaining teams on the Jets schedule smart enough to mimic the Bills and run like crazy. I guess the Jets are fortunate they don’t play the Jags the rest of the way because that’d be a guaranteed loss. And, I was so looking forward to betting against Chad Pennington on the road in the playoffs.

Cleveland (+11.0) over BALTIMORE
Speaking of my buddies’ favorite football teams, I’ve never seen anyone (except a Patriots fan) less excited about a 10-3 team than my friend Woody. It is as if he knows that this offense is just not going to get it done in the playoffs, when they’re facing either the Chargers or Colts in the second round. That’s a telling sign to me.

Houston (+11.0) over NEW ENGLAND
This is going to seem like sour grapes, but I talked myself out of picking Miami last week because the spread was only 3.5. Maybe if I had taken the time to look up that Brady’s three (now four) worst passing games have all come at Miami I would have known better. But, I didn’t. Probably a contributing factor to my sub-.500 record.

Luke’s Lock™ Alert!!
Miami (+1.0) over BUFFALO
Jason Taylor was given carte blanche to do whatever he wanted defensively last week and the Patriots could not handle him in the least. I found this to be wildly intriguing, a highly underrated way of running a team (or in this case, a defensive unit), and something I’ve been lobbying for the Patriots to do all year.

Jason Taylor is a phenomenal player, a defensive MVP candidate this year, and I’m sure knows more than his coaches on occasion. Why not let him do what he wants? It clearly worked and it’s really hard to game plan for. I wish the Patriots would do this with Brady. Why? You know every play would be a four- or five-WR set and any running play would be a draw. This offense was unstoppable against Minnesota and yet, for some reason, the Patriots strayed from it. Don’t over-think it!

CAROLINA (+2.5) over Pittsburgh
We need to clarify something here: this game is currently not available to bet on because no one is sure who Carolina’s starting QB will be. The spread we’re using is the opening line and, I believe, contingent upon Jake Delhomme starting. The theory would then be that if he doesn’t start the line would go up. Whatever. It’s not like Jake was tearing up the field.

Washington (+9.5) over TEAM KATRINA
The big knock on Team Katrina is its defense, especially the run defense, so let’s see if Washington is smart enough to run Ladell Betts 30+ times. It’d also do wonders for my fantasy football team (even if I am in the losers bracket).

TENNESSEE (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville
The coin flip finally lost last week, but all good things must come to an end. I admit, it pains me not to take Tennessee without the coin flip this week, I even wrote it that way originally, but these guys are still the Jaguars, let’s stick to the plan. As always, the Jags are tails, the Titans are heads.

Flip #1: Tails! Jacksonville leads 1-0 (damn)
Flip #2: Heads! Woo hoo, the Titans rally, tied 1-1!
Flip #3: Heads! Vince Young leads another comeback, this time in Sacagawea coin flipping.

The Pick: TENNESSEE (+3.5)

Tampa Bay (+13.5) over CHICAGO
What’s amazing to me is that Tampa Bay is in line for the third pick right now. How are they not the worst team in football? And how are the Lions, 2-11, worse than the Bucs at 3-10? Let’s just move on.

Philadelphia (+5.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants season comes to a crashing halt this week and all playoff talk is quieted (okay, maybe if they were in the AFC, sadly, they’ll be very much alive in the NFC, even with a loss) after a classic “just when you thought I was out” game last week vs. Carolina.

GREEN BAY (-5.0) over Detroit
Just out of curiosity, does anyone know who the Lions beat this year? Anyone? Buffalo in Week 6 and Atlanta in Week 9, both at home. The Lions are 4-8-1 against the spread this year. What a miserable season.

ARIZONA (+2.5) over Denver
The move to Jay Cutler doesn’t look so hot, does it? It’s hard to fault Mike Shanahan though. What do you do in his situation? Jake Plummer was not the answer (and the Broncos can’t trade for Allen Iverson). Jake was not taking them to the Super Bowl. It’s clear that Cutler may be ruining their shot at the playoffs, but the Broncos are a team for whom a playoff berth ending in a first round loss isn’t any better than missing the playoffs.

SAN DIEGO (-8.5) over Kansas City
I’m just afraid of betting against LaDainian Tomlinson at this point. Interestingly, however, the Chargers are only 8-5 against the spread.

St. Louis (+2.5) over OAKLAND
I really wish that the Rams pre-game speech would include such phrases as “okay guys, the Raiders are a team even we can beat.” I’d guess that not many people would have taken a 2:1 wager than the Raiders would be favored against anyone the remainder of the season around Week 5.

Cincinnati (+3.0) over INDIANAPOLIS
My, how the mighty have fallen. Can you imagine if the Colts don’t get a first round bye?

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