The Sports Truth

For Thanksgiving, my family enjoyed the traditional things - way too many family members over, awkward conversations with relatives, turkey and the like, finally wandering home around 8 p.m. The one thing we were unable to do, however, is watch all of the NFL games on TV - usually a tradition.

Heck, if nothing else, it’s something to distract us and keep us from those awkward conversations. The NFL, however, made the decision to broadcast it’s first prime time Thanksgiving game on a network no one seemingly has access to.

I’m not a marketing guy, I’ve never worked in marketing and don’t really have an affinity for the discipline. Maybe there is a long-term strategy here by the NFL which involves depriving (at least indirectly) its audience of Thursday night games in order to develop a larger long-term base, but I can’t see how this helps. Seems like an old case of “cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face” to borrow the cliché.

The strategy by the NFL went even further with advertisements for the NFL network running during mainstream Sunday games, asking people to contact their local cable network and ask for the NFL Network. They even went so far as to launch a website, iwantmynflnetwork.com - a site with a marketing campaign so successful, it took me five tries to get the name correct.

The website itself is quite inflammatory, preying on customer’s lack of knowledge by making broad statements without no proof to back anything up. One statement claims “NFL Network was created so you could watch it. There is no reason the network would be withheld from you. It doesn’t make sense for you or the network. Think about that. Why would this network be created and then kept from you?”

In the simplest sense, the statement is correct, but the implication is that money is not an issue. Another important question is not asked “Why was the NFL network created?” with the logical answer being not to altruistically provide viewers with another avenue to watch football, but to make money. Clearly money is the issue.

I didn’t see this Thursday’s game because I was predisposed and because my cable provider does not carry the NFL network. Frankly, the reason I didn’t see it has a lot more to do with former than the latter and raises a few questions about the NFL’s strategy. Is three days a week of football too many (four when Saturdays are in effect, and those prime time games will also be on NFL Network, for those who didn’t know, which included me until a few minutes ago)? Does it dilute the quality of Sunday? I say yes, but I’ll use another sport to show why.

A few years ago, Major League Baseball began starting the season with a Sunday night telecast. Just one game, seemingly randomly chosen, usually in the Sunday night, 8 p.m. slot on ESPN. The idea, with fans chomping at the bit to watch some real baseball, people all over the nation would tune in. I’m one of the largest baseball fans I know - I prefer it to the NFL and, as such, my breed is on the endangered list. However, the one-game season openers don’t appeal to me. It’s the subsequent Monday when there are 12 games being played throughout the day with so many different games to follow during the course of the day that is the most fun.

I’ve contended (to mostly deaf ears) that MLB should go the NFL route and have a grand opening day on a Sunday with as many games as possible on that opening Sunday. Run the games on as many networks as possible, recreating the NFL Sunday Ticket effect (for those of us lucky enough to be able to watch): constantly flipping to runners on first and third with 2 outs in a random Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee game.

The point is, simply, the one game a day marketing strategy might not be as effective as it seems. Again, I’ve never seen numbers for this; maybe the strategy MLB employs to open their season give them their biggest ratings. I’m just not convinced it’s a good long-term strategy throughout the course of a season. I think Thursday night NFL games on a network no one can watch won’t garner the type of dedicated audiences the NFL is striving for.

On to this week’s picks…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 6-10 SEASON: 78-92-7 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 3-5

Baltimore (-3) over CINCINNATI
I gave this pick last night to my editor, Michael Stephens, before the game and, upon hearing a score of 13-0 on the radio, wanted to scream. Why? Not because I cared or put money on the game, but because after my tirade last week, I didn’t have the cojones to stick with my anti-Ravens theory until it paid off. Pansy.

Minnesota (+9) over CHICAGO
What a career Rex Grossman (left) has had so far, eh? I’m not talking Peyton Manning-impressive, but so much has happened to him. He’s been injured a bunch of times, but when he does play, there have been times when people are real high on him and times when they are down. Currently, the stock on Grossman is down, and thus the Bears are giving nine - too many. Wonder if the Vikes are bold enough to copy the Pats’ strategy of putting 7-8 guys at the line and daring them to pass deep.

PITTSBURGH (-7) over Tampa Bay
I’ve been down on Pittsburgh all year but Tampa Bay is atrocious. The only way this game could be more painful to pick is if it were in Tampa Bay (and just because home underdogs are dangerous this year in the NFL).

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
ST. LOUIS (-6.5) over Arizona
Yea, yea, I know, this is third time I’ve selected the Rams for a lock and I’m not doing well on my locks, but come on, it’s Arizona! What have they done to show they could cover a game on the road, more or less win a game.

TENNESSEE (+7.5) over Indianapolis
My only fear here is that Indy is coming off of a loss and motivated to prove they’re the class of the NFL by beating the tar out of the young Titans. I guess that’s why it’s called gambling. On another note, I can safely admit I was wrong about Vince Young. I criticized him to no end when he was drafted, but he’s been very good for the Titans so far. If ask me, the key to his success (with the opposite being why Michael Vick is failing right now) is that he does what he can do and doesn’t try to be what he’s not. The Titans keep running the shotgun offense for him, with the off-set running back option offense. Tennessee doesn’t have Young in seven-step drops trying to be Tom Brady or Peyton Manning as the Falcons inexplicably do.

Jacksonville (Pick’em) at MIAMI
Back to the Sacagawea dollar. The Jags, as always, are tails and the Dolphins heads. Don’t want to jinx it, but our methodology is 2-0 so far.

Flip #1: Tails! Jacksonville leads 1-0
Flip #2: Heads! Dolphins even the series at 1
Flip #3: Tails! Jacksonville wins, 2-1
The pick: Jacksonville (Pick’em)

San Francisco (+7) over TEAM KATRINA
Boy, we’re a long ways away from the days I was discussing Team Katrina going undefeated at the Katrina Dome, huh? On another note, do the 49ers remind anyone else of the Florida Marlins and Charlotte Bobcats?

I suppose they’re a mix of both - one or two big names (Frank Gore, right, and Alex Smith) and a bunch of young parts (like the Marlins) all assembled via the draft (like the Bobcats). And, much like the Marlins and Bobcats, can anyone root against those teams? Is anyone rooting against the 49ers? At the risk of jinxing them, I think the long-hiding 49ers fans can start coming out of the closet again. It’s okay. No one hates you. That means you, Sports Truth founder Levi Matthews.

Atlanta (+2) over WASHINGTON
This year, I discovered the power and fun of the money line bet. A friend of mine furthered my horizons with the money line parlay. Take three or four seemingly surefire wins by favorites and make money just if they win. Sometimes we’re scared by Chicago +9, but Chicago to win outright? Not many people want to lay the $55 it takes to win $10, but couple them up with Indy -360 and San Diego at -300 and you’re even money again. Seems like a great bet, right? Wrong. It’s what has killed many of this year, the year of the underdog. The long winded point here is, why take Atlanta and the points on, say, $22 to win $20, when you could bet Atlanta to win outright $20 to win $22. Sure, it’s a $4 difference, but do those two measly points ever matter?

Requisite Michael Vick comment: I love that it takes a move like flipping off the fans, something that has nothing to do with playing football, for the talking heads on ESPN, etc. to finally come around to the fact that Vick is a train wreck at quarterback in Atlanta.

Kansas City (-5.0) over CLEVELAND
In as much as Arizona was never going to recover from its loss to the Bears, I don’t think Cleveland is coming back from blowing the Pittsburgh game last week. And Pittsburgh is far worse than Chicago.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Detroit
New England seems back to form after the back-to-back losses to Indy and the Jets. The Lions, meanwhile, are predictably going the other way. Let’s go to Jason C. from Newark to round out our Lions comments. “No one is saying he’s good, but why does Mike Williams seem to receive the brunt of the abuse for the Lions three consecutive 1st round WR picks? Hell, at least he plays, what happened to Charles Rodgers? Is he even on a roster anymore?”

I like the use of “a roster” (vs. the Lions roster) as if he not even being in the NFL anymore, more or less the Lions, is not out of the question.

San Diego (-6.0) over BUFFALO
As a Patriots fan, it was no more than 5-6 weeks ago when I was ripping the AFC East as the worst division in football, partially including the Pats in that assessment (but conveniently using it as an excuse as to why the Patriots were locks for the playoffs). Now? All four teams are in the playoff hunt (even if the Dolphins and Bills would need miracles) and, if you look at the schedule, the Jets could easily win 10 games and make the postseason. However, the Bills dream dies here. Still, probably a better season than anyone expected.

New York Jets (Pick’em) over GREEN BAY
Look at that segue, the Jets game! Here’s their schedule (fulfilling the wishes of those annoyed I didn’t spell it out in the previous game): @GB, vs. Buf, @Min, @Mia, vs. Oak. Those are all winnable games, but we’ll assume at least one loss to put them at 10-6. Heck, even with two losses they’ll be in contention at 9-7. I’m not going to spell out the other schedules, but the Jets have a much easier road than all the other contenders (Denver, KC, Jax, and Cincinnati).

Houston (+3) over OAKLAND
Congratulations to those who had Week 13 for the NFL’s annual Toilet Bowl. Fortunately for the NFL, for once, the game is not on national TV.

Seattle (+4) over DENVER
Both teams are 7-4. One team just had their starting quarterback and MVP running back return from injury, rallied to win a game at home last week in the snow and has a seemingly insurmountable two-game lead in the division. The other played a lifeless game on barely-regional television (thank you, NFL Network!) to lose their second in a row and now trail by two games in their division. Much like San Francisco getting points last week (and losing because their coach would not go for it on 4th and ONE INCH to ice the game), the Seahawks are getting points this week. Shocking.

Carolina (-3) over PHILADELPHIA
Steve Smith on Monday night is the only factor I could put together to determine a winner. It’s the only thing that prevented Sacagawea from determining my pick for this game as well.

Posted in NFL