The Sports Truth

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 9-7 SEASON: 104-114-7 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 5-9

Minnesota (+3.5) over GREEN BAY
First off, I love that the NFL Network broadcast games have been absolute bombs, with this one probably taking the cake. Secondly, I was watching ESPN after the game and Ron Jaworski started waxing about how Brett Favre can still play in the NFL at a very high level. I don’t know what game Ron was watching, but Favre was awful.

OAKLAND (+7.0) over Kansas City
It hurts so much not to take Kansas City here, but home underdogs, even the Raiders, have an astonishing win percentage this year. Let’s just move on.

Tennessee (+5.0) over BUFFALO
Vegas must be still banking in the SI cover jinx (even though we’re two weeks away now) with this line. However, Buffalo is something like 6-2 in its last eight games and playing at home in December, where no one wants to play. Still, I’m very impressed with Vince Young so far and he’s been winning us a lot of money.

Team Katrina (+3.0) over N.Y. GIANTS
You have to love the NFC. The Saints lose in Week 15 and still clinch their division at 9-5. Meanwhile, the Patriots, at 10-4 haven’t even assured themselves of a playoff spot yet, let alone their division.

Luke’s Lock Alert!!
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Carolina
I must have either not known or forgotten that Chris Weinke was starting last week for Carolina. What a mistake that was. He’s 1-17 as a starter. Enough said.

Washington (+2.0) over ST. LOUIS
Don’t let last week’s win over happless Oakland confuse you. The Rams are still the team that got pasted by Arizona… at home.

Indianapolis (-9.0) over HOUSTON
At least Oakland has a decent defense. I’m not sure what Houston has that will allow them to either score points on Indianapolis, or stop Peyton Manning from lighting it up and ultimately covering the spread.

Baltimore (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
When I first read this, I thought it was a typo. How on earth could the Ravens be giving points to anyone? Then, someone told me that Pittsburgh was 7-7 (who knew) and still alive for a playoff spot, even in the AFC (I think 7-7 in the NFC clinches a playoff birth). Still, the Ravens are much better than Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay (+3.0) over CLEVELAND
A third string QB vs. a second string QB. A 3-11 team vs. a 4-10 team. The second lowest points scored vs. the third lowest point scored. Both teams that were swept by division opponents. I could probably go on…

DETROIT (+5.5) over Chicago
Detroit is racing against Oakland for the #1 pick (they’re currently #2) and I could definately see them doing someting to their fans like beating Chicago in a meaningless game for both teams and destroying their chances at the #1 pick.

New England (+3.0) vs. JACKSONVILLE
The coin flip is 4-1 on the season. As always, Jacksonville is heads, New England is tails.
Filp #1: Tails! New England leads, 1-0.
Flip #2: Tails! New England wins, 2-0.

Phew! I really didn’t want to pick against my boys in a game they should win and need to win. The pick: New England (+3.0).

Arizona (+4.0) over SAN FRANCISCO
As much as I’ve come to love San Francisco this year, they’re still an unreliable team, so I’m taking the points.

Cincinnati (+3.0) over DENVER
Always dangerous picking against Denver at home, but Cincinnati is still very alive for a playoff spot and I like them getting points.

San Diego (-4.0) over SEATTLE
Am I the only one who thinks this spread is too low? San Diego is the best team in football right now (however, those who think these guys are winning a Super Bowl with Philip Rivers at quarterback are incorrect) and Seattle laid an absolute egg at home last week.

Luke’s Lock Alert!!
Philadelphia (+7.0) over DALLAS
I love all the people that are astonished with the play of Jeff Garcia (pictured). This guy was once a Pro Bowl quarterback - it’s not like this is A.J. Feeley coming off the bench here. By the way, glad to see that Tony Romo came back to earth. I almost got the feeling we lost him, kind of like Apollo 13. Was that tasteless?

New York Jets (+2.5) over MIAMI
Why am I picking the Jets? Because the Patriots need them to lose. Considering I’m well under .500 for the year, it seems like a good way to get them to lose is to pick them (uh oh, I just realized I picked the Pats too).

Here are the winners and losers from the Allen Iverson trade:

Winners: Denver, for obvious reasons. The Nuggets found a solution to their loss of Carmelo Anthony for 15 games and they upgraded from Earl Boykins. The Atlantic Division, because the other four teams will now get easy wins against a Philadephia squad that actually wants to lose.

Losers: Greg Oden, who could end up in Philly now. Philadelphia, which got nothing and still has to watch Chris Webber drag his leg around the court. Utah, which was going to have a chance to extend its lead deu to the Carmelo Anthony suspension, and now will be battling a team with ‘Melo and A.I. come February and March.

On to this week’s Sports Truth Power Rankings…

[Current ranking, followed by last week’s ranking in parentheses, followed by team record]

1. (1) Phoenix (18-6). Okay, we know they are pretty good, but the Phoenix Suns‘ field goal percentage is 49.17 percent. And they shoot 82 percent from the line. They say you have to make shots to score points, but this is off the charts.
2. (2) San Antonio (19-6). Only two teams have a winning differential margin of over five points per game: Phoenix at 6.9 and the Spurs with a whopping 9.7 points per game difference. The Suns may score a ton of points, but the Spurs are blowing teams out.
3. (4) Utah (18-7). One-point losses to the Knicks and Kings in the past week are not inspiring. San Antonio does not lose games like that. And now their closest competition acquired Allen Iverson. They better step it up.
4. (3) Dallas (18-7). They’ve rebounded from the blowout loss in Utah with four straight wins.
5. (5) Detroit (15-8). One of only three teams with winning road records in the East (Boston and Orlando). As predicted, they’ll have to hold off Cleveland and Chicago all season long.
6. (9) L.A. Lakers (16-9). Still solid, but they have lost three out of four without Odom and their only win came when Kobe scored 53.
7. (7) Chicago (15-10). Winners of 12 out of their last 13 and are only one game behind Detroit in the Central division.
8. (6) Houston (15-9). Yao Ming is averaging 34 and 12 over their last five, but they are only 2-3 in those games.
9. (8) Denver (14-9). I was prepared to drop the Nuggets into the middle of the pack after the Celtics’ domination over them on Friday night and the loss of ‘Melo for 15 games, but then they got Allen Iverson for virtually nothing. I get the feeling they will begin to move up in these rankings. By they way, great move by Denver.
10. (10) Orlando (16-10). 4-6 this month, back-to-back losses against Toronto and Charlotte and a team that desperately needs a week off. Our once-promising team is starting to slide.
11. (11) Cleveland (14-9). Can’t win on the road (3-7), need to get a spark from Larry Hughes. They actually lost to Orlando when the Magic started Tevor Ariza, Tony Battie and Carlos Arroyo… that’s not good.
12. (16) Washington (12-12). The Wiz are playing decent basketball of late, but losing to a shorthanded Denver squad the other night was not pretty. Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison were a miserable 29-for-75 in that game.
13. (14) Indiana (13-13). Are they really anything more than a .500 team? I don’t think so, but in the East that means playoffs.
14. (12) Golden State (12-14). Another team who can’t win on the road (1-9). I really love the young players on this team. Is there any chance someone would take Baron Davis off their hands? Isiah, you listening?
15. (13) Minnesota (10-11). Knocked off a few teams to prove they aren’t that bad, but once it became clear they were not getting Iverson, team lost back-to-back games and will now begin trying to unload Kevin Garnett (right).
16. (21) Boston (10-13). The talent is there, but they still need to play consistently well against better teams. They also need to do a better job of finishing games.
17. (19) Miami (11-13). Heat would actually make the playoffs if the season ended today. You know Shaq is just taking his time right now. I’d hate to be the top seed that gets stuck with this eight seed if Shaq is healthy.
18. (25) Portland (11-14). Showed some signs of life this week with a four-game winning streak. We’ll see if they can keep it up.
19. (18) Sacramento (10-13). Kings have just two wins in the month of December. They are just a mediocre team that looks to be lottery-bound.
20. (15) L.A. Clippers (10-13). For Elton Brand’s sake, I hope Livingston turns out to be one hell of a player. The Clips could have had Iverson if they included Livington in the deal.
21. (22) Milwaukee (10-14). They are 5-4 this month, which gives them a chance in the East.
22. (20) New Jersey (10-14). That was a huge win over Golden State thanks to Nenad Kristic’s 26 and 14. Nets schedule gets really tough over the next month.
23. (17) Toronto (10-15). Found a way to beat New Jersey and Golden State without Chris Bosh, but we’ll see how long that lasts.
24. (24) Seattle (10-16). Lost five straight on the road: Four against the East and one against Memphis. That says it all, this is not a good team.
25. (23) New Orleans/Oklahoma City (10-13). 2-9 in last 11 without Peja and West.
26. (26) Atlanta (9-14). Joe Johnson (right) is back, but they won’t win many games the rest of the month against a really tough schedule.
27. (27) New York (10-17). Isiah Thomas is entering the Ron Artest-crazy category. Other than that, this team just flat out sucks and they don’t care.
28. (28) Charlotte (6-17). Win over Orlando was impressive and Sean May is playing great ball.
29. (30) Memphis (6-19). Pau Gasol says he is ready to return, but I think they should hold him out another month. If they play .500 ball with him, the will really screw up their draft position.
30. (29) Philadelphia (5-18). They have officially given up and Billy King is foolish. Sad part is, they got two first rounders for Iverson, but those picks will come really late in the round (Denver and Dallas). In addition, their own first round pick is lost if it isn’t in the top 15. In other words, don’t win too many games.

It was late in the fourth quarter.

The Knicks were losing badly. As usual.

The Madison Square Garden crowd was cheering for the Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony.

By the time Denver’s J.R. Smith drove in to finish off another fast break, the Knicks had had enough. It was time to thug it up. Hard.

Mardy Collins figured he’d put a stop to the fun with a hard foul. Instead, it was the start of a wild brawl - the last thing the NBA needs two years after the epic Pistons-Pacers melee in Detroit, and the last thing the Knicks need in a season already spiraling downward.

The Saturday night fight went from one end of the court to the other. The Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony dropped Collins with a punch. Both Smith and Nate Robinson went flying into the stands while fighting, and six other players were ejected.

Anthony, the NBA’s leading scorer, could be looking at a suspension of more than five games. The NBA was reviewing the incident and interviewing people involved Sunday. It could announce penalties Monday, since both teams play that night.

Combined with Terrell Owens spitting in the face of an Atlanta defender, it was a banner night for pro sports. What caused the New York-Denver meltdown? To make a long story short, the Knicks felt dissed.

“The score period, and the guys that they had in,” Robinson said.

Anthony, Camby, Smith and fellow starter Andre Miller were all still on the floor with Denver leading by 19 with 1:15 to play when Collins prevented Smith from another easy basket by grabbing him by the neck (pictured) and taking him to the floor.

Smith rose and immediately started jawing with Collins, and Robinson jumped in to pull Smith away. Anthony shoved Robinson away, and Robinson and Smith then tumbled into the front row while fighting.

Then, right as things appeared to be calming down, Anthony threw a hard punch that floored Collins. New York’s Jared Jeffries sprinted from the baseline toward halfcourt in an effort to get at Anthony, but was tackled by a Denver player before he could get there.

By the time security had finally contained Smith, they were nearly at the opposite end of the court from where the altercation started, making it the NBA’s scariest scene since the brawl at Auburn Hills, Mich., between Pacers players and Pistons fans two years ago.

“Without being there, I can tell you the power of emotions can be an underrated thing in our game,” Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said. “Something like this should not happen, and when it does, it’s disappointing. But unless you’re there and a part of it and know all the dynamics of it, it’s really hard to comment on it.”

Somewhere, Ron Artest is smiling. Probably Sacramento.

Knicks coach Isiah Thomas, who took over for Larry Brown after one season, said he even told Anthony that he and Camby shouldn’t have been in the game at that point. Nuggets coach George Karl had just dispatched three players to the scorer’s table to check in while the Knicks brought the ball up the floor. Before play stopped so they could check in, New York turned it over, starting Smith’s fast break.

Two minutes earlier, Smith had thrown down a reverse dunk on the break, as both he and Anthony seemed trying to impress their group of fans.

The Knicks weren’t enjoying the show.

Robinson said the Knicks were “just trying to fight, come back from the deficit and they got their star players still in. It’s a slap in the face to us as a franchise.”

It’s certainly not the first time.

The Knicks have been routinely booed while compiling an awful 4-10 record at MSG. Moreover, they were in the midst of their second straight savage beating (pun intended). Collins committed a flagrant foul at the tail end of a 112-96 loss at Indiana Friday. The final score Saturday was 123-100. Denver.

The NBA has taken numerous steps to clean up its image after the fiasco in Detroit, implementing a dress code and its community relations initiative NBA Cares last season, and trying to eliminate excessive complaints to officials this season. Commissioner David Stern even implored NBA players to leave their guns at home!

One Sports Truth staff member believes that as a result of this incident, the league should institute a height requirement, so people such as Nate Robinson no longer feel a need to prove they are “hard” and get into it with taller players. It’s a theory that hasn’t been explored much, even amid rumors that Sebastian Telfair may have been in on the capping of Fabolous earlier this fall.

Regardless, what does it say about the NBA when Anthony (below, left), its leading scorer and a guy appearing in league marketing campaigns, is involved in an incident sure to trigger more discussions about all that’s wrong with it? We’ll find out as the suspensions are handed out this week and the fallout resonates for weeks to come.

DeAngelo Hall has always considered Terrell Owens to be pal.

They would talk on the phone and playfully taunt each other.

But Owens spitting in Hall’s face Saturday night has probably put an end to that friendship.

“He had a couple of nice catches,” said Hall, the Atlanta Falcons’ Pro Bowl cornerback. “You expect that. He’s a great player. Right before the first punt, though, we kind of got in each other’s face, talking back and forth, and I lost all respect for him when he spit in my face.”

Owens, Dallas’ star receiver, acknowledged losing his temper with Hall in the Cowboys’ 38-28 victory Saturday night.

“I got frustrated and I apologize for that,” Owens told the NFL Network. “It was a situation where he kept bugging me and getting in my face.”

Owens beat Hall for a 7-yard touchdown late in the first quarter and a 51-yard score midway through the second. After the third play from scrimmage, however, Hall used his forearms to shove Owens near the sideline. Neither player was involved in Tony Romo’s 19-yard pass to Jason Witten at the Dallas 31, but Hall stayed on Owens’ case.

Terrell Owens responded by spitting in his face.

“I lost all respect for the guy,” Hall said. “That’s the No. 1 thing in the National Football League. You don’t spit in a grown man’s face. Hopefully, the NFL can see it and go back and watch the film right just before the first punt. On third down, we were kind of walking face to face, walking back to the huddle and he just hauled off and spit in my face.”

Owens, who still maintains an offseason home in the Atlanta neighborhood of Decatur, indicated that Hall kept jawing with him throughout the game.

“He had a lot of words. I didn’t. I just wanted to come out and prove I’m a guy to be schemed with,” Owens said.

Hall and Owens began their rivalry on the field in the season opener for Atlanta and Philadelphia last year. The Falcons prevailed, 14-10. Despite catching seven passes for 112 yards, Owens didn’t score. His controversial behavior eventually led to the Eagles’ releasing him, and he signed with Dallas during the offseason.

Ah, yes. It never fails. What would an otherwise impressive Dallas victory be without the obligatory Terrell Owens drama? Hopefully these two guys can find some time to chill, listen to some soothing John Mayer tunes and bury the hatchet.

Before the Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2004, I had a weird dichotomy with my friends who were Red Sox fans as well. This awkwardness stemmed from something that can only be produced by meeting Red Sox fans who are not from Boston.

The reason being of all my close friends who are Red Sox fans, none of them are Patriots fans. The list of football teams supported by my own mini-Red Sox nation includes Denver, Chicago, the New York Giants (twice), amongst others, but never my beloved Patriots. For the New England Patriots, 2001-2004 were the glory years. Until 2004, those were some of the hardest seasons for Sox fans.

As a fan of both, I could at least take solace in my Patriots after Pedro, Grady, and Boone crushed my heart in the fall of 2003. Those Bronco, Bear, and Giant fans were unable to share in my joy.

The vast difference between my disposition towards football and those of the other non-Patriot fans has been very apparent in the last few weeks, culminating with the Dolphins game last weekend.

I’m spoiled, I’ll admit it. But, I’ve also watched enough playoff games since 2001 to know the Steelers last year were an anomaly. Not only were they the first #6 seed to win the Super Bowl, they were one of the few to even make the Super Bowl without a first-round bye.

My point is simply that the Patriots have blown two great chances to put themselves in position to get a bye (losing to the Jets the same weekend the Ravens lost, and losing to Miami last Sunday when the Colts lost their third game) and to me, it feels like a season lost.

Sure, barring a collapse. the Patriots are going to the playoffs and probably will host a home game in the first round against a very beatable team like the Jets, Jaguars, or Chiefs. But, every year the Patriots won the Super Bowl, they were the #1 or #2 seed.

It’s no coincidence that Tom Brady’s first playoff loss came when the Patriots were not a top seed.

The fact that I can’t get excited about the 2006 Pats separates me from my friends. Fortunately, the 2004 Red Sox title has spared me the “spoiled” jeers and insults when I talk about the Patriots, because we’re all still basking in the glow of that championship. Yet I’m sure any of my friends (even the Bears fans, who, if they’re honest with themselves, know Chicago is going nowhere with that offense) would trade their team for mine, in spite of its flaws, despite playing in the AFC. I guess I know what it feels like to be a Yankees fan, huh? I need a shower…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 9-7 SEASON: 95-107-7 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 4-8

Luke’s Lock™ Alert!!
San Francisco (+10) over SEATTLE
I don’t know why, but I’ve really taken to the 49ers this season. I don’t know if it’s the emergence of Frank Gore, the fact that I can’t name a single player on their defense, or that they’ve been dead for so long, no one gave them a real shot this season and yet they’re still in the playoff hunt (albeit barely) and just won’t die.

The 49ers are just fun to root for. How could you not like this team? On a side note, not only was Thursday’s game not available to non-NFL Network people, for reasons unknown to me, the first half of the game was not even on the radio in Boston. For some reason, WEEI (which has a stranglehold on Boston sports radio) wasn’t picking up the game until the 2nd half. I still haven’t learned the reason why.

ATLANTA (+3.0) over Dallas
There’s a really fun rumor out of Atlanta this week that Michael Vick may line up at running back on some plays with Norwood and Dunn injured. This means that the most underrated back-up in the NFL, Matt Schaub, will be quarterback and any Patriots fan can tell you what a great move that is for the Falcons. In my weekly, obligatory rip on Vick, when the Falcons scared the Patriots a few years ago and lost by three, 31-28, it was Schaub and his three passing TDs leading the way, not Vick.

(more…)

Another week goes by and the Western Conference just keeps getting better. You could argue Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Utah and maybe even Houston, the Lakers and Denver are all better than any team in the East.

Meanwhile, Orlando has cooled off, Detroit looks like the favorite in the East, Chicago is making a run and Cleveland is tough to figure out. Will Allen Iverson and/or Kevin Garnett be traded? Will Shaq ever return? Will someone take control of the Atlantic Division? Will Philadelphia ever win again? Are the Warriors and Clippers really that bad?

On to this week’s Sports Truth Power Rankings…

[Current ranking, followed by last week’s ranking in parentheses, followed by team record]

1. (5) Phoenix (15-6). Okay, I realize six of their last seven wins came against the East, but with the return of Amare Stoudemire (right) to form this month, the Suns are a team nobody wants to play. Amare’s December numbers: 19.9 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, 62.3 FG% and 84.3 FT%.
2. (3) San Antonio (17-6). In his last five games, Manu Ginobli is averaging 16 points per game while playing just 20 minutes. He is 10-for-16 from behind the arc in that stretch.
3. (2) Dallas (15-7). Just 4-3 in the month of December, but losses came at Utah, at Washington and versus Detroit. Even Erick Dampier is playing well. He is shooting an amazing 69 percent from the field.
4. (1) Utah (17-5). Although they were coming back down to Earth after losing three of four, now they have won four of five and Deron Williams’ 29-point, 14-rebound effort against the Lakers was impressive.
5. (9) Detroit (13-8). Wins over Dallas and Orlando were impressive, but the losses against Charlotte, Portland and Indiana were not.
6. (7) Houston (14-7). Rockets keep hanging around. They are afterthoughts in the West as they currently sit in the sixth seed, but who wants to play this team in the playoffs?
7. (11) Chicago (12-10). Winners of nine of their last 10, could acquire Kevin Garnett and feasting on a very weak conference. They have moved back up to where I had them in the preseason.
8. (8) Denver (12-8). Probably the toughest team in the league to figure out. They have the talent to be a championship contender, but are they? Would you take them in a series against any of the teams ahead of them on this list?
9. (6) L.A. Lakers (15-7). The loss of Lamar Odom really hurts Kobe Byrant and the rest of the squad. Can they win three out of every four without him? Probably not, but Kobe will do his best.
10. (4) Orlando (15-9). 4-4 in their last eight. They looked like they were running away a little, but they have quickly come back to the pack - even Miami and Washington are back in striking distance.
11. (10) Cleveland (13-8). Larry Hughes (below, right) is back… that helps. But they really need a good run to stay with Detroit and Chicago.
12. (12) Golden State (11-11). Another team that is way too talented to be .500, but when your wagon is attached to Baron Davis, you will always underachieve.
13. (23) Minnesota (10-10). Rejuvenated with the thought of AI coming to town? Either way, KG looks inspired. Wins over Houston, Utah and Chicago put this team on the map. Of course if they don’t get AI, KG could be gone.
14. (15) Indiana (12-12). Stephen Jackson should not have been benched. He should have been banned.
15. (13) L.A. Clippers (10-11). They need to find a way to win games. They are too talented to struggle this much. Could AI be on his way? It would make sense.
16. (19) Washington (10-11). Two road wins last week! Right now they would be the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
17. (17) Toronto (8-14). Watch out for them. Bargnani’s 23 points in win at Orlando could be a sign to come, but the previous four game losing streak did not help their cause.
18. (18) Sacramento (9-11). Slowly fading, so we should start hearing more complaints from Ron Artest.
19. (20) Miami (9-12). Right now they are in the East playoffs… go figure. Unfortunately, now Dwyane Wade is hurt again.
20. (16) New Jersey (9-12). This is easily the most frustrating team in the NBA. They are inconsistent from one night to the next and can’t take control of a terrible division. Oh yeah, Jason Kidd just got another triple double.
21. (28) Boston (8-13). Sacrifice the future (Al Jefferson and/or Gerald Green) for Allen Iverson (right)? That is the question facing Danny Ainge.
22. (22) Milwaukee (9-13). They made a run, but then lost at New York and New Jersey. You aren’t a contender with losses like that.
23. (14) New Orleans / Oklahoma City (10-10). Falling almost as fast as Atlanta. By the way, Deron Williams is averaging more assists per game than Chris Paul. Just thought you should know that.
24. (24) Seattle (10-13). A quarter of the season is over and Seattle should realize they have no chance in the West. It’s time to focus on signing Rashard Lewis and developing those project centers they drafted. Trading away Ray Allen would not be a bad idea either.
25. (25) Portland (10-14). Keep building for the future with Zach Randolph and the kids.
26. (21) Atlanta (8-13). For some reason, reports out of Atlanta say the Hawks are not interested in Iverson. Why not? This team has zero veterans and could desperately use some star power. Plus, they have an abundance of young players Philly would be interested in.
27. (26) New York (9-15). Since I have yet to write the “How to Fix the Knicks” article (expected arrival in January), here is a free one for Isiah: Curry, Lee, Jeffries, Crawford and Richardson should start. Collins, Balkman and Robinson should be the first and only players off the bench. Marbury should be used sparingly. Jones and Rose should not be used at all. Frye should join the rotation when healthy.
28. (29) Charlotte (5-16). Acquiring Iverson would have been great for this organization, but I would go after Rashard Lewis and Chauncey Billups in the offseason. If they land one of those players with Okafor, Morrison, May and Felton, they would have a chance.
29. (27) Philadelphia (5-16). Yuck. Should have traded Iverson in the offseason. Now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Don’t worry about talent coming back. Just get draft picks and make the team take Webber with Iverson. You’ll have salary cap freedom next year with a pretty good free agent crop and a draft that is expected to be as talented as ever.
30. (30) Memphis (5-17). Don’t trade Pau Gasol. Instead, play him with Hakim Warrick and add a point guard who can play.

To trade or not to trade for Allen Iverson.

That is the question.

In a schizophrenic league where the balance of power is extremely delicate, that question needs to be considered carefully. Would the addition of Allen Iverson dramatically improve your team?

This is what we know about the current cast of Boston Celtics. They are young and moderately talented. Paul Pierce is one of the most reliable sources of offense ever. And their current coach sucks.

Now, taking all of that information and turning it into hard, cold data, you still cannot determine what direction General Manager Danny Ainge wants this team to go.

The Celtics are stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they could secure “The Answer” and combine his formidable offensive attributes with “The Truth,” the Celtics still are on the outside looking in. A.I. does not make Boston an automatic title contender.

By the time the Celtics youth movement (whoever is remaining after the potential trade) comes of age, both Iverson and Pierce will be well beyond their prime. That said, the Celtics have way too much youth. They will not be able to sign all of their younger players. It makes sense to hold onto the ones they believe will turn into NBA standouts and deal the others.

What the Celtics would gain from securing the rights to Iverson is some much-needed swagger. Ever since the “wiggle” left the building, the Celtics have not had much heart. In addition, ever since “The Big Three” wrapped up their illustrious tours of duty, the Celtics have not seriously challenged for a title.

One thing is certain: by landing Iverson, the Celtics will suddenly become an interesting squad. Think about it. Iverson and Pierce on the floor at the same time! Those two players control the means of production when it comes to scary offense, and neither is a stranger to the foul line.

Perhaps Pierce and Iverson can draw upon each other and create something worth watching. Neither player has ever been accused of dogging it. As far as toughness is concerned, Pierce and Iverson are not afraid to mix it up in the paint.

So the question remains whether Iverson improve the Celtics as a whole. yet the answer to this question matters little. What Boston needs right now is a serious blood transfusion. Certainly Iverson would be the “Answer” to that.

It seems like the only people who still maintain that the Patriots did the right thing by not signing Super-Bowl MVP wideout, Deion Branch, are the same folks who run up to owner Bob Kraft (left) every chance they get to kiss his ring and thank him for “saving the Patriots.”

Objectivity must supplant fanaticism when considering the plight of the ’06 New England Patriots. It is true that in years past, the Pats had the oft-mentioned formula for success - and proved as much with three Super Bowl wins in four years.

But if you were paying attention to the contract machinations of the off-season, you know the salary cap increased significantly.

Bob Kraft objected to the increase, one of only a handful of owners to do so.

His solution was to simply not spend the money. While other teams have caught up to New England in talent and methodology, the Patriots have failed to recognize the changing landscape of the NFL.

The Patriots are still a good team. The defensive front is menacing and quarterback Tom Brady is as heady as they come. Those facts alone keep the Pats in contention.

But what the Patriots players continue to do on the field, the ownership has failed to do in the front office - be a team player. The 2006 Patriots just do not have the firepower to win it all this season. If they do win the Super Bowl, get the construction equipment ready so that the Tom Brady Wing can be built in Canton, because it will take that type of effort.

Let’s face it. Although we may not want to admit it, Brady is no deity. For that matter, neither is Deion Branch. But at a certain point you must take one on the chin. The Patriots gambled with Branch and lost. They figured he would back down and come to camp. Then they determined he would not get what he was asking for. Most critically, they did not have a backup plan.

You’re not always going to get a bargain. Sometime you must pay premium pricing. The only time you get burned is when a player turns out to be a bum. Branch (pictured below) is no bum. His market value is not worth the money he got from the Seahawks, but to the 2006 Patriots, he would have been worth every dime.

One has to wonder, with the deadline to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka fast approaching, if not signing the Japanese pitcher was part of the Red Sox plans to begin with.

Was the $51.1 million negotiating offer just a preemptive move to prevent the Yankees from landing the prized Japanese pitching standout?

Probably not, and here’s why. The Red Sox learned from the 2006 campaign that a team can never have too much front-line pitching. When it comes to top-notch, top-of-the-rotation starters, the Red Sox now realize a little goes a long way.

Case in point: While the Sox were tired of Pedro Martinez’s indiscretions, they now understand the impact a quality starter makes on the staff as a whole. There is a cumulative effect. When one piece of the puzzle is removed, the entire staff takes a collective step back.

And pitching is the name of the game. The primary reason the Sox coasted to their 2004 title was starting pitching. The 2004 staff gelled at the perfect time and the team never looked back.

Certainly a strong argument can be made for the Sox not pursuing Martinez. Since he has left Boston, Martinez has not exactly been a world-beater. Also, the former Sox ace has been riddled with injuries.

So the question remains: If the Red Sox were correct in letting Martinez (and Derek Lowe) leave, where have they come up short? By not making the proper plans to address their starting pitching, the Sox have discovered themselves with a mediocre staff.

The fix is as simple as adding a front-of-the-rotation guy. Many baseball observers believe that Daisuke Matsuzaka is the guy. By inserting a starter with the potential to win 15-18 games, you not only gain those wins, but improve the overall quality of your staff.

One can only believe that at this juncture it is simply a question of who is going to blink first - Daisuke Matsuzaka and his super-agent, Scott Boras, or the Boston Red Sox.

Of course, the silver lining to all of this is that, no matter what, the New York Yankees will not be vying for the pitcher’s services this year.

If you’re a fan of ESPN.com’s Gregg Easterbrook, a.k.a. the Tuesday Morning Quarterback, or have had the misfortune of watching a Sunday of football with me, you probably already know what I’m going to write about:

Punting. Its rampant overuse, the poor decisions coaches make in terms of when to punt, when not to punt, how underrated going for it on fourth down is and how overrated “field position” is.

For those of you familiar with the topic, David Romer, a professor of economics at the University of California-Berkeley wrote a paper in July 2005 about the inefficiency of punting. As a scholar of economics, Romer used his paper to evaluate the effectiveness of NFL teams in maximizing their profits and to do so means winning football games.

Romer takes it to an extreme, but in short, indicates that so long as the play is fourth and 10 yards or less to go for the first, statistically it is in a team’s favor to go for the first down versus punt, regardless of field position.

Now, it certainly takes some chutzpah to go for it on fourth and nine from your own six, but NFL teams are abusing the use of the punt. I’m not going to list the numerous egregious situations where teams should have gone for it on fourth down, say, in opposing territory down in the fourth quarter - for a comprehensive week by week list of those moments scan through any TMQ article. But, I’d like to try and point out a loose correlation between teams winning games, not punting, and going for it on fourth down.

It would probably surprise no one to learn that the best teams in the NFL don’t punt the football. The logic stands to reason that teams that are scoring points and winning football games are not punting as much because they’re not even facing fourth down as much. That the Colts, Cowboys, Chargers and Patriots are teams 1 through 4 in least amount of punts probably doesn’t shock anyone.

That’s not to say these teams don’t punt often, they’re just not “forced to punt” as NFL broadcasters would like you to think, because they’re not facing fourth down as often. However, the Patriots, Colts, and Cowboys are in the bottom third of punts inside the 20. Does this mean they have poor punters? Probably not, all three teams are in the bottom third of punts for touchbacks. More likely, these teams are only punting on fourth and long from within their half of the field (the Chargers, inexplicably, have 47 punts, 24 of which have landed in the end zone).

The bottom line is that the punt is vastly overused and vastly overrated as a tool of winning football games. On to this week’s picks…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 8-8 SEASON: 86-100-7 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 3-7

PITTSBURGH (-7.0) over Cleveland
One of the fun things about the Thursday night games, for me at least, is to comment on the game after I’ve picked it. Thank you, NFL Network.

If they pay attention to Sportscenter at all, or use ESPN as any sort of barometer, last night’s midnight Sportscenter could not have been encouraging news. Instead of starting with the Thursday primetime NFL game, Sportscenter first gave us the mouth-watering news that Barry Bonds had resigned with San Francisco and then highlights of the Suns-Nets game (which was, in all fairness, phenomenal) and then the riveting Browns Steelers game was the third story and *gasp* after a commercial. I really couldn’t imagine a more disastrous start to their package.

Atlanta (-3.0) over TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay has fallen to the point where you can’t pick them, even as a home underdog, even against the inimitable (in a bad way) Michael Vick. I can’t even pretend to have an enthusiasm about this game.

Minnesota (+1.5) over DETROIT
How does Matt Millen still have a job? Okay, Roy Williams, good pick. Your second leading receiver is Mike Furrey, a former safety? The third receiver is Cade McNown, a former quarterback? How embarrassed must Mike Williams and Charles Rodgers be? They were number one draft picks and can’t even beat out former safeties and quarterbacks for a wide receiver position.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
Tennessee (+1.0) over HOUSTON
The Titans are 8-4 against the spread this year, including 7-2 against the spread when Vince Young starts. Somehow, they’re only giving one point to the Texans, who stink. I don’t get it either.

New York Giants (+3.0) over CAROLINA
There is one way to neutralize Steve Smith that we all forgot about - get rid of his quarterback. Does any non-Giants or Panthers fan even know who Delhomme’s back-up is? It’s career record of 1-15 Chris Weinke! That’s all I needed to hear.

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