The Sports Truth

We’re halfway through the season, and to steal a technique from ESPN’s Bill Simmons, here’s what we know so far: The Colts are the best team in football, period.

Wins at Denver and at New England solidify any questions there and make them an easy #1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots and Ravens are winning their divisions. The winner of the Giants/Bears game this weekend will be the #1 seed in the NFC and both of those teams are winning their divisions.

Doesn’t seem like a lot to be set in stone, but with only half the season completed, we have almost half the playoff spots set already. In an era when Jacksonville can go a four-game stretch with three impressive wins by a combined score of 91-13 and lose to Houston in that other game, that is some unexpected dominance by five teams.

That is what we know through nine weeks. Now let’s look at what is likely. The Patriots will probably end up the #2 seed in the AFC. Besides the Chicago game in New England, their schedule is cake. Conversely, the Ravens are going to win their division but end up as the #4 seed thanks to a schedule that has them going to Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh in weeks 13, 14, and 16, respectively.

Team Katrina would have to collapse at this point to not make the playoffs, and with a win over Atlanta already in hand, New Orleans has the inside track to win its division.

With New Orleans our sixth playoff team, that leaves six playoff teams to determine and their seeding. At least two of the AFC West trio of Denver, San Diego and Kansas City are going to the playoffs - one will win the division, the other will pick up one of the wild cards.

By virtue of its play thus far, I’m going to give Denver the division and the #3 seed. That leaves San Diego and Kansas City for one spot, with the other battling Jacksonville for the last wild card. San Diego has the toughest remaining schedule - @ Cin, @ Den, vs. Oak, @ Buf (no one wants to play at Buffalo in December), vs. Den, vs. KC, @ Sea, vs. Ari - so I’m going to give the #5 seed to Kansas City.

Fortunately for the Chargers, however, the Jags have a tough schedule too (vs. NYG, vs. Indy, vs. NE, and @KC) and K.C. will still need that week 16 win to get into the playoffs, so the Chargers will back into the #6 spot by virtue of a week 16 loss for Jacksonville. Thus, our AFC looks like this:

1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Denver
4. Baltimore
5. Kansas City
6. San Diego

Moving over the NFC, I’m going to award the NFC South and the #3 seed to Team Katrina by virtue of a slightly easier schedule. I’m going to give three wins to Atlanta - vs. Cle, @Was, and @TB - and a 10-6 record good enough for the #5 seed. That leaves the NFC West and one more wild card.

A Seattle win this week would make it hard to lose the NFC West, but St. Louis is going to stun the home team and make it a tight race again. Even with the loss, Seattle has five fairly easy games remaining on their schedule (@ SF, vs. GB, @ Ari, vs. SF, @ TB) and should have ten wins.

St. Louis, similarly, has four easy wins (vs. SF, vs. Ari, @ Oak, vs. Was) and if they can win at Carolina in Week 11 or at Minnesota in Week 16, they will reach 10 wins as well. The Week 2 loss to San Francisco will come back to haunt St. Louis as they lose the NFC West by a slightly worse division record than Seattle. Minnesota should have 10 wins as well, but a Week 17 loss hands the #6 seed to St. Louis.

Here’s how the NFC shapes up:

1. Chicago
2. New York
3. New Orleans
4. Seattle
5. Atlanta
6. St. Louis

Now, on to this week’s picks…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 5-9 SEASON: 56-67-6 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 0-2

Kansas City (Pick’em) over MIAMI
I’m a little confused as to how a 5-3 team playing a 2-6 team is a pick’em, regardless of where it is play, but there’s no way Miami is winning two games in a row. They played out of their shoes last week; they’d have to do it again to win this week.

TENNESSEE (+7.0) over Baltimore
Just feels like it’s time for Baltimore to lose a game. They can’t be as good as their 6-2 record and they’re playing a feisty Titans team (despite last week’s abomination) in Nashville.

Houston (+10.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville will win this game, but their record all-time vs. Houston is something like 7-6. Houston always plays them tough (as evidenced by their aforementioned win earlier this year) and 10.5 points is too many.

CINCINNATI (+1.0) over San Diego
Is anyone else starting to get the feeling that last year was “the year” for the Bengals, but was derailed by the injury to Carson Palmer? People keep saying Palmer isn’t the same, and he’s not. His completion percentage and TDs are down from last year, but the whole offense has struggled as well. Sure, quite a bit is put on the shoulders of Palmer and if he’s not performing well, teams could “load up” on the run, but is anyone actually doing that? I doubt that anyone thinks Palmer has “lost it” and are willing to let him beat them. With Rudi Johnson’s numbers down as well, it falls on the offensive line. They’re not blocking for Palmer or Chad Johnson and it’s really hurt the Bengals.

Cleveland (+8.0) over ATLANTA
The real Michael Vick came back last week, so it’ll be interesting to see if he and the Falcons staff can make adjustments. Did the Lions (as I so inaccurately predicted) figure out what kind of defense is needed to beat Vick? Or was it what we’ve always known?

Many Lions players commented that the defense was about being disciplined, staying in their lanes, containing Vick. Haven’t we been saying this all along? Could two wins vs. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati be an aberration for Vick? I think so.

Buffalo (+12.0) over INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis has covered a spread of double digits or more twice this year - vs. Houston and Washington. Certainly Buffalo is as bad as or worse than those teams, especially with Willis McGahee out with a broken rib. But it’s the year of the underdog and we’re going to take the points.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
Team Katrina (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH
Even more puzzling than the Kansas City and Miami game, we have a 2-6 team giving 4.5 points to a 6-2 team. What is this based on? Their 45-7 win over Kansas City four weeks ago? This is the same team that lost to Oakland and they’re giving points to a team that defeated Atlanta AND Philadelphia? What does Vegas know that I do not?

Washington (+7.0) over PHILADELPHIA
What a season for Philadelphia. In Week 5 they’re 4-1 with a brutal loss to the Giants that should have been avoided and everyone is saying that they should be 5-0 and the cream of the NFC. Team Katrina rallies to beat them in the Katrina Dome, then the crippling loss to Tampa Bay, followed by the awful game against Jacksonville and now we’re all saying they’re not going to make the playoffs. And they’re not, amazing. I almost penciled them in as the #2 seed back in Week 5.

Chicago (Pick’em) over N.Y. GIANTS
No information from my inside sources this week on the Giants game, but I’m going against convention. Granted, the Giants are missing some key players due to injury, but people are really down on the Bears, and rightfully so. However, no team is 7-1 by accident, and I see them picking up the pieces this week after a bad loss to Miami and really sticking it to the G-Men.

Green Bay (+5.5) over MINNESOTA
If any other team is equipped to dismantle the Vikings defense like the Patriots did two weeks ago, it would be the Colts. But since the Colts aren’t playing Minnesota this week (or any week for that matter) is there another quarterback you’d want to have in the pocket firing to five wide receivers than Brett Favre? Wasn’t he built for this type of an offense? I can’t wait for how disappointed I’m going to be when they try to run the ball.

N.Y. Jets (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND
The Jets will not win this game - the Patriots haven’t lost back to back games in a stretch of 80+ games - but they always play the Patriots tough and this is the best team the Jets have had in years. Take the points.

San Francisco (+6.0) over DETROIT
I’m not saying it will happen, but if St. Louis beats Seattle this week and San Francisco can beat Detroit, they’d be one game out of the NFC West lead. They then play Seattle at home and in St. Louis and if they ever won both of those games they’d have sole possession of first place and a 2-0 record vs. St. Louis this year. I know, it can’t happen, but I can dream, right?

OAKLAND (+9.0) over Denver
Based purely on scoring averages - 17 points per game for Denver, 11 points per game for Oakland - Denver won’t cover. Since Javon Walker & Co. have not been a prolific offensive team to begin with and they’re playing a good defense on the raod home, Oakland should cover this spread. The wild card, of course, is Oakland’s inept offense. All they need is a touchdown, but does anyone have confidence in them to do that at this point?

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
St. Louis (+3.0) over SEATTLE
This reeks of a revenge win for St. Louis. Seattle is playing without Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander and St. Louis has to be fired up for this game after the brutal 31-28 loss in Week 6. Interestingly, these teams come into Sunday’s game with a combined 1-5 record over the past three weeks and Seattle’s only win was at home over Oakland last Sunday (though, they did play Kansas City tough at Arrowhead).

ARIZONA (+7.0) over Dallas
In the year of the underdog, you have to like a home dog getting seven points. I’ve also got to ask, is anyone sold on Tony Romo, starting QB? I realize he’s been more effective than Drew Bledsoe (not exactly challenging to do), but this can’t be the answer for a winning team. In fact, I’m going to give you a list of the starting quarterbacks on all of the winning teams in football and you tell me which one you’d rather have Romo over: E. Manning, McNabb, Grossman, Johnson, Brees, Vick, Wallace/Hasselback, Bulger, Brady, Pennington, McNair, Palmer, P. Manning, Garrard, Plummer, Rivers, and Huard. Acceptable answers include: Grossman, Garrard, and Huard. That’s not a sign of a good quarterback.

Tampa Bay (+9.5) over CAROLINA
Kenny from Tampa Bay sent me this perspective on the Buccaneers, “It’s going to sound ridiculous, but Tampa Bay is the best 2-6 team in the NFL right now. Look at the schedule they’ve had to play so far: vs. Bal, @Atl, vs. Car, @NO, vs. Cin, vs. Phi, @NYG, and vs. NO. It’s kind of hard to be upset with the way the team has performed given the schedule.”

That’s brutal. Not even the Giants have played a better collection of teams. Fittingly, the Bucs beaten the two poorest teams on there, Cincinnati and Philadelphia, but doesn’t that seem ridiculous to say those are the worst teams on their schedule? Tampa Bay feels more like a 4-4 to me and they’ll cover this game.

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