The Sports Truth

In honor of the family tradition of Thanksgiving, we’re live from the columnist’s parent’s house for our Week 12 edition of the Sports Truth’s NFL picks. Working conditions are far from ideal, working on an aging PC instead of the luxury of every writer’s best friend, the laptop.

At the same time, we’re keeping the Thanksgiving theme going by supporting the family college, Siena (where father, brother, and sister all graduated and the patriarch still teaches), in its effort to win its first game of the year vs. Dartmouth in men’s hoops by listening to the game on Internet radio. It’s being broadcast by WROW out of Albany, N.Y. and your play-by-play man, “The General” Robert Lee. No joke, that’s his name - he’s even referred to by the moniker “The General.” They don’t call him Robert E. Lee, in case you’re curious.

Siena has been very disappointing so far this season, losing predictably at Stanford, but also playing an awful game at Holy Cross this past Saturday. Your humble writer was in attendance and not impressed. Siena’s offense was ultimately non-existent as the Saints were somewhat flummoxed by Holy Cross’s relatively standard 2-3 zone defense. Maybe yours truly should be sent in to teach the 2-3 zone offense currently employed (and blatantly stolen from Sports Truth founder Levi Matthews) in two recreational basketball leagues.

Interesting side note: Dartmouth lost its last game to the de facto Sports Truth alma mater, Colgate, a perennially mediocre team. Some of us at the Truth have been advocating, albeit quietly, the removal of Colgate coach Emmett Davis. He’s an awful, boring coach and in the nine years we’ve been affiliated with the school, Colgate has never even made the conference finals. Haven’t been able to watch them on TV. Ever. Thanks Emmett.

Currently, it’s 23-17 Dartmouth, with 13:05 to go in the 1st half. On to this week’s picks.

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 6-9-1 SEASON: 72-82-7 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 1-5

Tampa Bay (+11) over DALLAS
Five of Dallas’s six wins this year have been by over 11 points, but this is still the year of the underdog and despite a blip in the radar last week, we’re not giving up on that theory just yet.

DETROIT (+3) over Miami
The ever popular home underdog and two teams going in different directions. I have nothing else to say here (how depressing for a Thanksgiving game), so here are some more thoughts on Siena College hoops:

Paul Hewitt is currently coach of Georgia Tech and has had great success since taking over the program several years ago, including a NCAA Finals appearance. Those at the Sports Truth and from New York’s Captiol District know that before his stint at Georgia Tech, Hewitt was a very successful coach at… you guessed it, Siena. Last night, #19 Georgia Tech was playing #11 Memphis in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational and rallied from a 15-point halftime deficit to win, 92-85.

As an observer of both Siena and Georgia Tech under the reigns of Hewitt, one notices a drastic difference in coaching style. At Siena, Hewitt installed a brand of basketball designed to give his team a chance to win. However, at Georgia Tech, Hewitt’s offenses have been geared around the best players on the team, and rightly so. Considering his relatively equal success at each school, one could argue that coaching is more important at the lower levels of college basketball.

SCORE UPDATE: Dartmouth 30, Siena 27, 8:07 left in the first half.

KANSAS CITY (-1.5) over Denver
It may be the year of the underdog, but Kansas City is brutal at home and Jake Plummer (right) looks awful. Amazing that you can have a playoff team, and a decent one at that, led by a terrible quarterback.

SCORE UPDATE: All square at the half, 32-32. Alex Franklin leads Siena scorers with nine. The patriarch just walked in to announce that the game was tied at half. Apparently the Internet broadcast is about two minutes behind his radio broadcast. Meanwhile, Colgate trails Canisius, 39-33 at half.

Jacksonville (-3) at BUFFALO
Per our tradition enacted last week, the Jags will be tails and the Bills heads:

Flip #1: Heads! Bills lead, 1-0.
Flip #2: Heads! Bills win, 2-0
The Pick: Buffalo (+3)

SCORE UPDATE: Dartmouth 43, Siena 38, 15:57 left in the game.

Houston (+6) over NEW YORK JETS
As much as the NFL and it’s underdogs have given us migraine headaches all year in their unpredictability, we really should have seen what was coming with quarterbacks like Michael Vick and Chad Pennington. After a nice start to the season, Chad has coming come crashing back to earth like a meteor.

Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE
One of these days, I might learn my lesson with Baltimore, but this is not the week. I just don’t believe it, I can’t. How can this team be 8-2?!?! Ray Lewis isn’t even playing. Something’s not right. This smells of the Knicks in ‘99. If the Ravens go to the Super Bowl, I won’t recognize the ‘06 season as having happened.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT
Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND
You can’t blow a big lead over the Steelers at home and expect me to ride you again the following week. That, and, as I said last week, Palmer has turned a corner. He’s back to 2005 Carson Palmer. Fantasy owners around the United States are jumping for joy (and were it not for Lee F@#*ing Evans, Palmer would have carried my team to another win).

Dartmouth 46, Siena 46, 14:14 left. Dartmouth scored 48 points last Saturday versus Colgate.

MINNESOTA (-6) over Arizona
The Cardinals really seem to raise their game at home. But, they’re still 2-8 and playing in Minnesota. The Vikings blew last week’s game, and they won’t blow this one.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT
San Francisco (+5.5) over ST. LOUIS
Forget the team names and look at the stats. The away team is 5-5, the home team is 4-6. The 5-5 team has won three straight games, the 4-6 team has lost four straight. The 5-5 team has given up only 30 points in the last 14 quarters. What should the spread be? Away -3? Pick’em? Nope, the away team, San Francisco, is getting 5.5 points! Wow.

SCORE UPDATE: Siena 52, Dartmouth 48, 12:58 left. Siena is currently being led by Kenny Hasbrouck and freshman Edwin Ubiles (you-BILL-is).

Team Katrina (+3) over ATLANTA
Drew Brees’ 510 yards passing last Sunday surpased Xavier Nady’s catch in Game 7 of the NLCS as the most unbelievable performance of 2006 that no one will ever remember. As long as Michael Vick remains on the Falcons, and they insist on dropping him back in the pocket to pass instead of rolling him out, the Falcons will not be winning games.

Carolina (-4) over WASHINGTON
Betting against another home underdog, but the Redskins are 3-7 and not fooling anyone. Ladell Betts is nice, but no Clinton Portis (much to the chagrin of my fantasy football team). So long as Steve Smith still plays for the Panthers, it’s hard to bet against them versus a bad team.

SCORE UPDATE: Siena 58, Dartmouth 56. 10:02 left to play.

Chicago (+3) over NEW ENGLAND
It’s been beaten to death at this point, but New England is 5-0 on the road, 2-3 at home. This coming from a team which entered the year with fewer than 10 losses all time at Gillette Stadium. Just an odd performance by the Patriots this season.

While we’re here, I have an interesting theory about running the football and the Patriots. Tiki Barber spouted off this week about how he felt that Tom Coughlin bailing on the running game in the 2nd half at Jacksonville this week was a “slap in the face.” He continued by saying that the winning formula in the NFL is fairly simple and that the disproportionate number of teams who run the ball win games. In the case of the Giants, I think Tiki is right, the Giants need to give him the ball. But, he’s also the best player on the Giants, so that makes even more sense.

The Patriots, however, live and die with their quarterback, Tom Brady. However, the Patriots are averaging 120 yards per game with Dillon and Maroney, good for eigth in the league. Their passing offense, meanwhile, is 12th in the league. Conventional wisdom and 2006 stats suggest the Patriots should run the ball and I agree… to a point. The Patriots’ best games of the year (at Minnesota and at Green Bay) all involved Brady annihilating opposing defensive backfields all game long. Running the ball is certainly important (and was inexplicably abandoned in the Indianapolis game) but when you have one of the top five quarterbacks of all time on your team, you should always put him in position to win games.

SCORE UPDATE: Siena 62, Dartmouth 60, 7:36 reamining.

Philadelphia (+9.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
As I pointed out a few weeks ago, Indianapolis has only covered a double-digit spread twice all year.

TENNESSEE (+3) over N.Y. Giants
I was listening to ESPN Radio on the drive to my parents’ house for the Thanksgiving holiday and the host du jour asked Len Pasquarelli what order the quarterbacks of the class of 2004 would be drafted in today. Pasquarelli instantly placed Eli Manning #3, with Tony Romo’s lack of a body of work landing him at #4. It’s debatable who you’d take #1, Ben Rothelisberger or Philip Rivers (I’d take Rivers), but the point was to emphasize how far Eli’s stock has dropped. The Giants are a team I put in the playoffs only a few weeks ago and now they’re tied with Dallas for the NFC East lead. Not good times in the Meadowlands.

SCORE UPDATE: Siena 75, Dartmouth 65, 4:00 remaining. Timeout Dartmouth. Redshirt senior Michael Haddix has been impressive in the second half.

SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland
Hard not to take the points, but San Diego beat the Raiders 20-0 in Oakland already this year and San Diego is clearly better than they were in Week 1.

Green Bay (+9.5) over SEATTLE
Hard to predict this game with four days to go before Sunday, and Brett Favre and Matt Hasselback’s status unknown, so we’ll take the points.

The final score from Hanover, N.H.: Siena, 83-69. An impressive 17 second half points from Haddix and Kenny Hasbrouck, held scoreless in the first half, finished with 21. Colgate? They lost to Canisius in OT.

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