The Sports Truth

Very few gamblers in our world bet on every game, every week. At the request of several of my readers, I’m going to start listing Luke’s Locks™ of the week. A feature where by I list two games I guarantee (read: “with 75 percent certainty”) a winning pick.

I’ll preface the two Luke’s Locks™ prior to the pick, so even if you’re just looking for two solid picks, you can skip the rest of the article and go straight to the Locks™. We’ll keep a record of Luke’s Locks™ along with my overall record as well.

It’s a more realistic way to help my readers, nay, all of us, bring down Vegas with successful betting because my record against the spread for the year is not accurate enough to be winning money… yet!

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 8-6 SEASON: 51-58-6

ST. LOUIS (-2) over Kansas City
Last week we went with the Chiefs at home, where they’re seemingly unbeatable, and Seneca Wallace, Maurice Morris, and the defending NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks all gave us a big scare. Get my drift? If Larry Johnson (right) and the Chiefs can barely beat a depleted ‘Hawks team in Arrowhead, they’re not going to go to St. Louis and defeat the Rams. Sorry.

Cincinnati (+3.0) over BALTIMORE
Add Cincinnati and Baltimore to the 2006 list of teams that no one can figure out (for the record, the list is captained by Jacksonville, assistant captained by Philadelphia, and includes Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and the New York Jets). Cincinnati had a very winnable game at home against an overrated Falcons team and inexplicably came up short. Baltimore, meanwhile, last week defied the hurricane gods and annihilated Team Katrina in the Katrina Dome, ruining my prediction of a perfect home season for the Saints. I see the hurricane gods exacting revenge and giving the Bengals the win in this one.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.0) over Houston
I hope no one had to suffer through the Giants game last week vs. Tampa Bay. I bet that unless you’re a Giants or Bucos fan, you can’t even tell me the score, can you? You’re thinking to yourself, “was it 13-3? 14-3? 17-3?” It was 17-3 (I honestly thought it was 14-3, I had to go fact check myself), but the reason you can’t remember is: A) it was one of the least talked about NFL games in the last 10 years (look it up); B) The score was 14-3 at the half (a boring 14-3) and a whopping three points were scored in the second half. Thank you, Tom Coughlin. I see another game that is going to be far closer than it needs to be. Something in the range of 20-6 or 24-10 for Tiki Barber & Co.

Tennessee (+9.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Is there really any point in trying to pick Jacksonville games anymore? I think that I’m just going to pick the opposite of whatever the Jags did the week prior. They won last week, lose this week. And since I have nothing more to add here, let’s handicap one of the wagers we can make on next Tuesday’s exciting U.S. Senate races.

Right now, Montana Republican incumbent Conrad Burns is supposedly in a “heated battle” with the Democratic challenger Jon Tester. Burns is currently listed as a +180 underdog to Tester (+180 indicates that if you bet $100, you win $180). Tester (left) is currently president of the Montana State Senate.

Beyond the hysterics of someone handicapping a senate race, beyond the absurdity of anyone being a heavy favorite or underdog in the Montana U.S. Senate race, and beyond the fact that the challenger is aptly named Tester, is that Tester is the president of the Montana state senate.

Have you ever heard of something like that? Is this man elected twice: once to senate, and then again voted president of the senate by other state senators? Go with the Republican incumbent and the odds.

WASHINGTON (+3.0) over Dallas
Washington was a charter member of the 2006 list of teams no one can figure out when they beat the Jaguars 36-30 (appropriately, the Jaguars were the other charter member and a unanimous choice for captain). Dallas joined the ranks just last week with an improbable comeback from a 14-0 deficit for a resounding 35-14 win over the other Week 8 inductee Carolina. So who do you take? The home underdog.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
Green Bay (+3.0) over BUFFALO
Last week I mentioned how I felt bad about not pushing Green Bay more in Week 7, but I was forceful in Week 8 and Brett Favre delivered with one of the best types of gambling wins — the early win. There were three early wins last week — Green Bay, Chicago, and Tennessee — and the early win when the team you bet on is covering the spread handily around halftime and you don’t even worry about the bet anymore.

On a related note, the Packers are currently 3-4, a game behind Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis, who are all tied for the 6th NFC playoff spot at 4-3. I hope not to jinx the Pack like I did with Team Katrina last week, but Packers have two game left vs. teams with a record better than 4-3 right now (New England at home and at Chicago, both losses).

After Brett Favre (left) and the Packers beat Buffalo this week, all the Packers have to do is win their non-Patriots home games and get a win in San Francisco to finish 8-8. In the suddenly awful NFC, that could be playoff material.

New Orleans (-1.0) over TAMPA BAY
A win this week over New Orleans and Tampa Bay would be inaugurated into the 2006 list of teams no one can figure out, but I think the hurricane gods will make up for being asleep at the wheel last week and Team Katrina will cruise.

Atlanta (-5.5) over DETROIT
Is anyone else excited for when Atlanta finishes the season with the #3 seed gets to face Carolina, New Orleans, or a healthy Seattle team in the 1st round and we get to bet against Vick? I know I am. Don’t believe the hype. This isn’t a case of Michael Vick needing the right offense in order to reach his true potential and has finally reached superstar status. Even if it is, don’t bet against some defensive coordinator coming up with a scheme to beat the Falcons and the copycat-league following suit and sending Vick back to the sub-80 passer rating he’s known for. Unfortunately for the Lions, Donnie Henderson is not going to figure that out this week.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
CHICAGO (-13.5) over Miami
Last week’s spread against San Francisco was -16 and the Bears won 41-10. San Francisco is better than the Dolphins, the game is still in Chicago and the spread is lower? Someone please explain this to me. What am I missing?

SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5) over Minnesota
I’ve mentioned it once already in this article, the NFL is a copycat league and there’s no way the 49ers won’t be coming out in 4- and 5-wide sets this weekend. Minnesota had all game to make adjustments — the Patriots didn’t even stop passing the ball when they were way ahead late — and still could not stop the passing game. Alex Smith is not even close to Tom Brady, but getting 4.5 at home? I’m going to ride the 49ers. Choo choo!

SAN DIEGO (-12.5) over Cleveland
Seamus from Boston emailed this observation last week: “I was watching the Chargers fail to ‘put away’ the Rams last week and I realized that the Chargers are the Alfonso Soriano of the NFL. They’re going to kill bad teams — see San Francisco, Tennessee, Oakland — just as Soriano kills bad and mediocre pitching, but they’re not the superstar team you imagine they would be. See losses to Kansas City and Baltimore. Just like Soriano looks awful against good pitching.” Great analogy, and I couldn’t agree more. Is anyone picking the Chargers to beat the Colts or Patriots right now? Nope. I’m not sure you’d even take the points. Fortunately for us, they’re playing Cleveland, a bad team, at home this week.

Denver (+3.0) over PITTSBURGH
Honestly, what more do the Steelers have to do to prove to us that: A) this season is finished, and B) last season was a fluke. In regards to the latter, no one is saying to themselves “the loss of Jerome Bettis is really hurting this team in 2006.” In regards to the former, I’m sure the motorcycle accident and the appendectomy didn’t help, but this is the real Ben Roethlisberger.

He’s not good. I’d rather have him than Vick, and he’s always going to have a starting job in the NFL, but he’s not going to win games for you and if you force him to, he’s going to lose those games. Also, Pittsburgh lost to Oakland last week and they’re giving points to a team that almost beat the Colts?

SEATTLE (-7.0) over Oakland
I know Kansas City is not that great of a team — borderline playoff team at best — but were you as surprised as I was at how well the Seahawks played in Arrowhead last week? I was shocked, I’ll tell you that. I know everyone is now off the “Raiders are the worst team ever” bandwagon because they beat the Steelers last week, but remind yourself that Pittsburgh isn’t very good (this would be a more widespread opinion if not for the misguided theory that Pittsburgh is still the defending NFL champions). The only reason the spread is scary is because Oakland does have a good defense. I’m still laying the points.

NEW ENGLAND (-3.0) over Indianapolis
Certainly the hardest game on the board, and no one would be surprised if either team wins. Indianapolis probably looked the best they have all year last week, but a few things stick out in my mind.

1. The Colts gave up 31 points to a team that averaged 12.2 going into last week.
2. The Colts tried to lose to the freakish Jacksonville Jaguars… at home.
3. The New York Jets should have beaten the Colts.
4. Tennessee almost beat the Colts… at home.

Eventually this kind of stuff has to catch up to you. This is the week.

Posted in NFL, Sports Betting