The Sports Truth

After the McNabb/Brown/Buckhalter scoring change issued by the NFL and the ensuing fantasy football chaos that ensued, I wanted to start this week’s column with a look back at the first round of a typical fantasy football draft and how it would be different if we drafted right now.

Injuries and unexpected performances have turned the fantasy football world into a giant crap shoot. It seems as if, more than any other fantasy sport, fantasy football is quite a bit of luck. For simplicity’s sake, let’s take a look at the draft in the league I’m currently in 7th place, at 4-6 (I had the 9th pick). Here’s our first round:

1. Drew Bledsoe’s Crazy Mobility (DBCM): Larry Johnson
2. Not Gonna Win (NGW): LaDainian Tomlinson (below)
3. Kyle Killers (KK): Shaun Alexander (right)
4. Clara Barton’s Red Cross (CBRC): Peyton Manning
5. Ned…… Ryerson (NR): Rudi Johnson
6. Shaq’s Deputies (SQ): Tiki Barber
7. The K-Federation (K-Fed): Ronnie Brown
8. Bateman’s Chainsaw (BC): Edgerrin James
9. The Gymkata Revival (GR): Clinton Portis
10. Woodcockenator All-Stars (WAS): Lamont Jordan

First off, CBRC threw everyone off by not taking Portis because he’s a huge Redskins fan. In retrospect, that looks like a very smart decision. I’ve also got to hand it to DBCM, who changed his mind on draft day and took LJ instead of Alexander because of the Madden Curse.

Our first round looks more like what the second round should look like, with Barber, Brown, and Johnson, and Portis all taken ahead of Willie Parker, Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, and Brian Westbrook, who are all out performing our first round running backs. That doesn’t even take into account the debacles James and Jordan have been, the injuries to Alexander and Portis, or that McNabb should be in the first round.

A first round drafted now, in Week 11, would probably go like this:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Larry Johnson
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Peyton Manning
5. Brian Westbrook
6. Steven Jackson
7. Willie Parker
8. Kevin Jones
9. Tiki Barber
10. Frank Gore

One could argue McNabb should move up to the #1 or #2 spot considering how many games he has won for fantasy teams this year, but LT (26 points per game) leads all fantasy scorers, LJ is 2nd among RBs with 20, followed by Parker (17). The drop off is almost as dramatic after McNabb and Manning, and considering the unreliable Michael Vick is 4th, that shows how unstable quarterbacks are.

Not to mention, in this Week 11 draft, you could get McNabb and/or Manning and still get Brown, Johnson, Chester Taylor, Warrick Dunn, or Deuce McAllister in the second round. Bizarre to think about, considering some of the RBs taken in the second round before the season started include Willis McGahee, Cadillac Williams, and Reggie Bush. Yikes!

Now, on to this week’s picks…

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 10-6 SEASON: 66-73-6 LUKE’S LOCKS™: 1-3

Oakland (+9.5) over KANSAS CITY
Simply a brutal underdog to pick, but we’ve got to stay the course after a rough start to the season. A bad team, Oakland at Arrowhead, one of the worst places on earth to play. Very hard not to take Kansas City here, but underdogs will lead the way.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
Indianapolis (-1) over DALLAS
One week after I rip Tony Romo, we start hearing stuff about how he’s got the second-best passer rating behind Peyton Manning. Well, unfortunately for Romo and the Cowboys, they’re facing Manning this week, and even if their passer ratings are close, the dramatic difference between the two of them will be evident and the farce that is QB rating will be revealed.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over TEAM KATRINA
Initially, I took Team Katrina in the Katrina Dome, but I’m sick of getting burned and in writing my brief analysis, I’ve talked myself out of it. What seems like more accurate, Carson Palmer throwing for 400 yards and 3 TDs, or the Bengals defense (heck, any defense) giving up 49 points? I’m going with the former and believe Palmer has turned the corner with his recovery from knee surgery.

CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Pittsburgh
The home underdogs were 0-3 last week, but the Titans should have won their game and the Raiders almost knocked off the Broncos. Only the Cardinals were absolutely worthless. We’ve got an undervalued team (Cleveland) at home, getting points, against a wildly overrated (somehow) team (Pittsburgh).

Tennessee (+13.0) over PHILADELPHIA
Suddenly everyone is back on the Eagles bandwagon after drubbing the horrible Redskins. Brian Westbrook (right) and the Eagles are giving way too many points to a team that has played a lot better than their 2-7 record (even though that sounds like a really dumb statement). They should have beaten the Ravens last week, lost by only one to the Colts in Indianapolis, and lost 10-13 to the Dolphins in Miami. With two of those games, they’re 4-5 and this spread is around seven.

Atlanta (+4) over BALTIMORE
This game is very similar to the Eagles game. Everyone is really high on the Ravens and down on the Falcons (I know, I know, I don’t like them either, but bear with me). In this the season of the topsy-turvy NFL, I feel like the Falcons should be giving points for the sole reason that they’re due to win and the Ravens are due to lose. Makes me want to pick Washington this week without even knowing who they play.

Washington (+3.0) over TAMPA BAY
Hey, look at that, a segue! Talk about a putrid game, though. Who wants to watch this matchup? Why even play it? The out-of-the-playoffs 2-7 Bucos and the out-of-the-playoff 3-6 Redskins minus Clinton Portis. I’m predicting a final score of Redskins 2, Buccaneers 0.

LUKE’S LOCK™ ALERT!!
St. Louis (+6.5) over CAROLINA
Randy from St. Louis makes a great point about the difficulty of staying positive in sports (unless you are a Patriots fan, of course, for whom optimism is a way of life now): “Is what is happening to the Rams the Gods way of exacting revenge for the Cardinals winning the World Series? I know there’s a 5-year grace period with the Cardinals and considering we’re less than two months removed from their title I shouldn’t be complaining, but come on? This team is 4-5 and haven’t won a game since the Cardinals started winning and have two stomach punch losses to the Seahawks (sans Alexander, of course) mixed in there.”

I’m sorry, Randy, but yep, this is the payment for the city’s deal with the devil. My buddy Tariq sold his soul to the Devil for a Red Sox world title and the Devil got him a full-time job in Philadelphia and has made him start to like the Phillies. That’s quite the punishment. This is your ‘pound of flesh’ for having an 83-win team capture the World Series over a far more deserving Detroit Tigers team. Oh, and, I’m sorry, but you have to suffer another last-minute field goal loss this week. But the Rams will cover.

Buffalo (+2.5) over HOUSTON
How many awful games can one league have in the same week? This is supposed to be the era of parity in the NFL, but it seems as if we have more awful teams than ever. Look at these four match-ups this week: Pitt @ Cle, Was @ TB, Buf @ Hou, Det @ Ari. And Detroit vs. Arizona is one of two 4:05 games this week, with the other being the phenomenal battle between Seattle and San Francisco. Why would the NFL do that to us? If the normal 1:00 audience is 10 million, I feel as if the 4:00 audience will drop to 250,000.

GREEN BAY (+5.5) over New England
New England won’t lose three games in a row, but the suddenly sloppy and undisciplined Patriots look very vulnerable. Two weeks ago, I’d have said this game would be 31-7 Patriots with a spread in excess of 10. Now? I’m not sure they’ll cover a field goal.

N.Y. JETS (+7.0) over Chicago
Another home underdog, and considering those are the only home teams I’ve taken this week, I’m not going to buck the trend now. Come to think of it, I’m not really happy about all of these road underdogs. Let’s just move on before I change my mind and start giving points somewhere.

Minnesota (+3.5) over MIAMI
It’s another tale of two teams going in different directions, which, by observance of the NFL’s unwritten rule of parity, must inexplicably change directions. Minnesota has lost three in a row and Miami has won two in a row and is at home. Seems like an easy win for the Dolphins, but they’ll lose 31-3.

Detroit (+2.0) over ARIZONA
Bill Parcells once said “you are what your record says you are.” The Cardinals are 1-8. I should probably avoid betting on the Cardinals again this season, eh? Probably. Since there’s little else to say about this game, here are three (unsolicited) reasons why the Red Sox (or anyone) should not sign J.D. Drew (below):

1. His career high in games played is 146, in 2006. Besides 145 games in 2004, J.D. has never played more than 135 games in his nine year career. J.D. Drew has never had consecutive season of 110+ games played or more. J.D. Drew had career highs in doubles (34) and RBIs (100), 2nd most runs (84) and triples (6) ABs (494) and hits (140), third most HRs (20) and triples (6).
2. The last time the Red Sox signed a career National Leaguer coming off highs in several categories, his name was Edgar Renteria.
3. J.D. Drew will be 35 and making $14 million a year at the end of the rumored contract.

SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over Seattle
The Seahawks have covered one spread of +3 or more since Week 3 and that was against the Raiders at home. The Seahawks may be winning games without Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander, but they are not the same team and if it were not for two last second field goals against the Rams, this team would be in danger of missing the playoffs. The 49ers, meanwhile, are 4-5. I bet you very few people realize that right now. Get it, bet? Hello, is this thing on?

DENVER (-3.0) over San Diego
Here it is folks, my lone home favorite pick. To be honest, I’m not really sure why. Both of these teams are very good and, I suppose, when in doubt, take the home team. Denver plays well at home, right? Yep, they’re 12-1 at home in the last two years, including the playoffs.

N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at JACKSONVILLE
Astute observers already noticed that I eschewed my traditional phrasing of Team #1 over Team #2 for this final matchup. Why? I’m no longer “picking” Jacksonville games, we’re going to be having a best of three coin-flip-off to determine who will cover this game. The Giants will be heads, the Jaguars tails. The coin being flipped with be a Sacagawea one dollar coin.

Seriously, I have one at my desk! Why? I got one months ago and never spent it because, well, who caries around Sacagawea dollars? Also, can you call it anything other than a Sacagawea dollar? If you told someone you had a one-dollar coin, wouldn’t they look at you funny? Or assume you’re talking about those old dollar coins that have JFK on them? I feel like the Sacagawea dollar is the government’s effort to mimic the WNBA.

EDITOR’S NOTE: John F. Kennedy is actually on the half dollar.

Anyways, flip #1: Sacagawea! Heads! Giants up 1-0.
Flip #2: Ooooo, tails. Tied 1-1.
Final flip: Tails! A comeback win for the Jaguars. See, you have to do the Jags games this way. ou thought the Giants were going to win once up 1-0, didn’t you?
The Pick: JACKSONVILLE (-3.5).

Posted in Fantasy Football, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL