The Sports Truth

At the Sports Truth headquarters, it was a night of gambling that will go down in history, and will never be repeated… at least for the next two years. For the first time ever, our gambling gurus had to wait until early afternoon the next day to eke out a win. Also for the first time on record, alcohol turned out to be a bad bet.

Remember our sports betting lesson from the other night? Always take the over when wagering on aggregate goals scored in the night’s NHL games. That’s textbook. The other three wagers that comprised this epic night, however, had no blueprint. We had to trust our guts… and the up-to-the-minute Zogby/WSJ Poll.

The four components of the night’s wagering:

• $20: That the 10 NHL teams taking the ice would score 28.5 or more goals combined.
• $18: That Democrat Claire McCaskill (above, watching the returns) would oust Republican incumbent Jim Talent of Missouri for that state’s U.S. Senate seat.
• $18: That Democrat Jon Tester would oust Republican incumbent Conrad Burns of Missouri for that state’s U.S. Senate seat.
• $20: That Massachusetts Ballot Question #1 would pass (this represents a personal bet with an acquaintance).

Hey, how often does election day come along? Once a year? Sometimes you have to go all-out and let it ride on a couple of Democratic challengers and the ability of food stores in Massachusetts to sell wine. Yes, that’s what was up for debate as ballot initiative #1 here in the Bay State. The liquor stores have all the wine business and the grocery stores want in. Our contention was that they would get their wish.

Boy did we misread Massachusetts residents on this one. From the minute ballots started being counted, “No” took a commanding lead, at one point garnering 61 percent of voter support with 20 percent of the precincts reporting. While the hopes of food stores and the Sports Truth were lifted briefly as “Yes” clawed up to 45 percent around 9:32, the race was over and done with by 10:01.

We were devastated, as the first portion of our epic parlay to be decided eliminated the possibility of a sweep. But we weren’t as downtrodden as the real proponents of Question One, who spent $3.5M on ads and threw a party at the Westin Hotel in Copley Square to celebrate what they were certain would be a landslide win.

Presumably, wine was the beverage of choice, and presumably, plenty was consumed after the ballot question was officially shot down, 56 percent to 42 percent. Some local news cameras were on hand, panning the room and showing dejected supporters drowning their sorrows. I’m not kidding.

The early NHL games didn’t bode well for us either. A pair of 3-2 OT games settled by shootouts may be fun to watch, but not if you need an average of six goals to pull out an aggregate wager. Luckily, the gambling gods smiled upon us and delivered the badly-needed 6-5 contest. The L.A. Kings, bless their souls, caught fire and got Colorado goaltender Jose Theodore pulled. We were still in this thing.

Still, at 27 goals and two low-scoring games still in the third period, we needed a miracle. The Sharks got us within 0.5 when Patrick Marleau scored with under five minutes to play, but as time ran down in the Calgary-Dallas matchup, with the Flames up 2-1, our chances were looking bleak at best.

We had just about thrown in the towel when Jarome Iginla fed Kristian Huselius (left) for an empty-net goal with 17 seconds to go, setting off pandemonium here at the office. Always take the over. Remember that.

Meanwhile, McCaskill had finally clinched the Missouri Senate seat as the night gave way to early morning. If there is one thing we can tell you about betting on U.S. Senate races, other than that you may have serious mental problems, it’s not to expect a spectator sport. Can’t they count votes any faster, dammit? Why won’t Talent just concede, trailing by 55,000 votes with a handful of precincts to go?

Nevertheless, the Democrat held on and won us $10. Handicapped as a fairly heavy favorite (-180), Claire ended up prevailing by 1 percent, making those odds seem dubious. This was the same spread enjoyed by our man Jon Tester, looking to accomplish the same thing McCaskill did and oust a Republican Senator in Montana. If the margin of error in tracking polls is +/- 3 percent (and decidedly so, as seen in the 2004 Bush-Kerry race) how can anyone be a heavy favorite if they’re ahead by 1 percent?

Our online bookie has some explaining to do. After he pays up! Though it took until Wednesday afternoon, Tester (left) prevailed in Big Sky Country, equalling McCaskill’s 49 percent of the vote and barely outlasting the established GOP opponent in a tooth-and-nail struggle.

Even more amazing than having to wait until the following day to see if you win a bet is how few people live in Montana. Tester’s 198,302 votes were good enough for the win. For reference, McCaskill drew over a million.

It was a momentous day for the Democratic party, but an even bigger one for the Sports Truth. We pulled out some tough races thanks to an amazing empty-net goal and widespread anti-Bush backlash. Three out of four ain’t bad.

Moreover, our only loss is mitigated by the fact that, despite the food stores’ defeat, we can still go to the liquor store for wine and get smashed anyway. Seriously, does anyone know why we had to vote on this?

Posted in Hockey, NHL, Sports Betting