The Sports Truth

We live for this! Actually, we don’t, with the Red Sox out of it. But there are still four Division Series matchups taking place this week, and two of the Sports Truth’s venerable scribes are here to break them down for you.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

MINNESOTA TWINS (96-66) vs. OAKLAND ATHLETICS (93-69)

Why the Twins will win: During the majority of the ‘06 campaign for the Domers, they were carried by five superstars. They’ll have to make due with just four of those heroes in the postseason — Santana, Nathan, Mauer, and Morneau. However, those are arguably the game’s best players at their positions. Can anyone on the A’s make that claim? And let’s not discredit fine seasons put together by third baseman Michael Cuddyer and infielder Nick Punto, as well as the work their bullpen has done in front of Nathan. And veteran Torii Hunter is still roaming centerfield, like a cheetah.
Why the A’s will win: Whether it’s because MLB finally banned amphetamines along with steriods, or because the game is simply evolving, it’s quickly becoming a young players’ game and the A’s are loaded with them. Barry Zito might not put up the gawdy numbers of Santana, but if the A’s can escape Game 1 with a win, you have to like the A’s stable of young arms — Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, and Rich Harden — vs. Boof Bonzer, Brad Radke & Co. in Games 2-4.
Key factor: Whichever team hits better will win the series. It seems like common sense, but considering how solid each team’s pitching is, it may only take 1-2 runs to win a game. Think about it. If Zito goes 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER and the Twins win 1-0, it’s hard to blame Barry for losing that game for the A’s. In a series where every run counts, the team that can hit more HRs is going to win. The edge here goes to Oakland’s Frank Thomas (above), the biggest HR threat on either side.
Predicted outcome: If the Twins want to have a shot at winning, they’ve got to come away with Game 1. Otherwise, Thomas and the A’s take the series in five games.

NEW YORK YANKEES (97-65) vs. DETROIT TIGERS (95-67)

Why the Yankees will win: No matter what their fans tell you, besides Chien Ming-Wang (right), this Yankees team is going to win with offense, so they’ve got to hit to win. Against the young Tigers pitching staff, this shouldn’t be a problem for the veteran Yankees — even A-Rod. All Mussina, Wright, and Lidle have to do is not get annihilated; even 4 ER in 6 IP will do. The Yankees should easily out-hit that kind of offense from the Tigers.
Why the Tigers will win: Ever since 2000, the Yankees direction has been offense, offense, offense. World Championships? Zero. Call it the curse of the Giambino or whatever you want, but the Yankees are doing their best to prove that the 1996-2000 teams won with pitching by having a more talented offensive roster and NOT winning. The Tigers were the most superior pitching team in the AL this year by almost a half-run. The old adage is that young pitchers break down by October, so the Tigers must avoid that with Verlander and Bonderman. Kenny Rogers also must reverse his horrible post season pedigree (0-3, ERA 8.00+).
Key factor: Pitching supposedly wins championships, but the Sports Truth doesn’t see much pitching out of either side. The Yankees can’t pitch and we don’t see the Tigers being effective enough. Each game in the series will be a four-hour slugfest, so if either team gets even a mediocre outing from out of a starter, that should propel them to victory.
Predicted outcome: The Yankees get a solid Chien Ming-Wang start (7 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 3E R — he’s patented that pitching line) while Verlander gets rocked and the Tigers have to go to the bullpen early, affecting them for the rest of this short series. Yankees sweep.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

SAN DIEGO PADRES (88-74) vs. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (83-78)

Why the Padres will win: Pitching. The Cards can potentially finagle two starts out of Chris Carpenter, but San Diego has four solid starters in Woody Williams, Chris Young, suddenly-surging staff ace Jake Peavy, and (I can’t believe I’m writing this) David Wells. With Cla Meredith and Trevor Hoffman anchoring the back of the bullpen, the Padres find ways to close out the close ones, which is obviously key in October.
Why the Cardinals will win: Albert Pujols. He alters games as much as one hitter can. I can see a 6-12, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 BB series line here. Veterans Scott Rolen and Jim “Listed as Questionable” Edmonds (pictured) must produce as well.
Key factor: Defense. An odd choice, but I have a gut feeling. This Cardinal team been real shaky down the stretch in all facets of the game, basically imploding in September on the road. The red-hot Padres field the ball as well as anybody. One or two key mistakes in the field can spell doom in the playoffs, and St. Louis is more likely to make them.
Predicted outcome: The Padres lack offensive punch, but their depth will win out over an underachieving St. Louis club that backed its way into the postseason. San Diego, 3-2.

NEW YORK METS (97-65) vs. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (88-74)

Why the Mets will win: Nomar Garciaparra led L.A. in home runs and batting average, despite missing 40 games with phantom injuries. That tells you a lot about the Dodgers offense. New York has a far superior lineup. Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are electric, Carlos Delgado is still nasty and future Hall of Famer David Wright is not someone you want to face. Ever.
Why the Dodgers will win: Pitching depth. No matter what Met fans say about how Pedro Martinez wasn’t great this season anyway, his loss kills them. At half strength, he’s a better option for them than some of the alternatives. L.A. has 16-game winners Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, a still-formidable Greg Maddux, rookie Chad Billingsley, and closer Takashi Saito (right), who’s been brilliant. That’s a good enough group to topple the Mets in a short series.
Key factor: Shea Stadium. Having been in control of the NL East since mid-April, the Mets will need their home field edge in suddenly pressure-packed games. Also, from a managerial standpoint, you have to give Willie Randolph the nod over Grady Little, and I refuse to get into why.
Predicted outcome: This goes against conventional wisdom, but I see L.A. stealing one of the first two in Shea, then having Maddux and Penny slam the door on the Mets in Games 3-4. The Dodgers went 9-1 down the home stretch to get here, while the Mets have been on cruise control and bring highly questionable starting pitching into the series. Steve Trachsel. Need I say more? L.A., 3-1.

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