The Sports Truth

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 4:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 7-7 SEASON: 29-29-2

INDIANAPOLIS (-18.5) over Tennessee
Remember our lesson from last week? Don’t be afraid of the big spread. Okay, so Indy didn’t cover last week, but our other big spreads were Dallas and Philly, who covered with ease. It’s also officially safe to call the Jets frisky or dangerous (at least to bettors). The same can’t be said of the Titans. Dallas put up 45 on them last week and would have covered an 18.5 spread. You can bet the house that Indy will.

N.Y. GIANTS (-4.5) over Washington
Sources close to the Giants say that their defense is absolutely porous, especially against the run, a specialty in Washington. But, a 4.5-point spread means Vegas doesn’t have a good feeling about this game, and our next lesson is that Vegas always knows what they’re talking about (even if, ironically, they’re admitting they don’t know — that means you don’t know either). When Vegas doesn’t know, go with the home team.

MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Detroit
Minnesota may have disappointed us last week, but anyone who’s been there knows that Buffalo is not a fun place to play, even in September. The Norsemen are back home in the dome of Minneapolis and should have no problem beating an inferior Lions team by a touchdown.

NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
Do not over think this game. Just don’t. Yes, it’s New Orleans. Yes, they let a staggering Panthers team beat them last week. But, they’re not gonna keep the hapless Bucos in this game. Team Katrina is back home for Katrina Bowl II and coming off of a bad loss to Carolina. Don’t think “hey, New Orleans is giving a touchdown, what is Vegas thinking?” Vegas doesn’t see New Orleans, they see a good 3-1 team with a solid run defense. They also see a putrid Tampa Bay team that can’t throw it in the ocean (even from New Orleans).

GREEN BAY (+3) over St. Louis
Hardest game on the board. The days of “don’t bet against Brett Favre” are over, but does anyone want to bet against Brett Favre at home? Sure, the Eagles pounded the Packers last week, but they’re a good team. Are the Rams a good team? No one is sure yet (mostly ’cause of that loss to the 49ers). When in doubt, go with the home team getting points, especially in Lambeau Field.

Miami (+9.5) over NEW ENGLAND
Miami is never going to win this game, but this reeks of a classic Patriot 4th quarter victory by one score. Miami has always given the Pats trouble and although they’re awful last year, it took a huge fourth quarter for the Pats to blow out the Bengals last week, so don’t overrate that win. If the Pats win that game 14-13, this spread is under seven points.

CHICAGO (-10) over Buffalo
Our big rule rears its head again — don’t be afraid of the big spread. Is this spread inflated cause of the Seattle blow out last week? Absolutely. Is this Bears team for real? Definitely. They’re at home, with a dominating defense against a team with one offensive player (Willis McGahee). Don’t over think this, don’t fear the big spread. Take the Bears and chalk up a victory.

Cleveland (+8) over CAROLINA
Many supposed NFL pundits picked the 2-2 Panthers to win the Super Bowl, but does anything think this team has rebounded from their 0-2 start and is back to the form most expected? Let’s review their wins: a squeaker vs. the potentially worst team in the NFC (Tampa Bay) and a game they tried to lose last week vs. New Orleans. Over one score is too many points to pass up. Plus, it’s fun rooting for Charlie Frye, right? Hmm…

N.Y. JETS (+6.5) over Jacksonville
Just when we thought we could finally add the Jaguars to the likes of the Colts, ‘04 Chargers, the ‘03-’04 Patriots, the ‘05 Bengals, the ‘03-’05 Steelers, etc., as teams you could count on to go 13-3 against the spread all year and give you a fat return, they lose a stunning game to the Skins last week. Was that really the same defense that stymied the Colts in Indy and shut out the Steelers? That same team gave up 36 to the Redskins? With the Colts not covering their last two games, the Eagles improbable loss to the Giants, and the Steelers and Patriots just not being the same anymore, are the days of the reliable team to bet on behind us? I hope not, but I’m not pinning my hopes on Jacksonville.

Kansas City (-3.5) over ARIZONA
A major rule was violated with the Chiefs last week — don’t bet against them at home. Duh, how foolish to think the 49ers could hang with the NFLs best home team. They might not be playing at home this week, but when a team puts up 40+ points on anyone in the NFL and then travels to Arizona, keep your money on that team.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Oakland
Oakland vs. the spread in 2006? 0-3. After Week 5, 0-4. Does it even matter what the spread is, who they’re playing, or where the game is played? Bet against the Raiders until you lose. And when they do finally cover, double your bet against them the following week. We’ll all make money. Don’t fight the system.

PHILADELPHIA (-2) over Dallas
We loves us some home teams this week, huh? Just out of curiosity, who’s taking Dallas with this kind of a spread. Not even a field goal? How well to the Eagles need to play to convince Vegas that they deserve at least a mandatory -3 for playing at home? This spread is really surprising.

Pittsburgh (+3) over SAN DIEGO
A week ago, this was a slam dunk for San Diego. Then Marty Schottenheimer intervened. And the worst part? We all knew it was happening right about the middle of the third quarter. You could see Marty getting way too confident in his defense and far too anxious about his offense. Then the nail in the coffin, on one of the worst losses of the season, occurred after Steve McNair’s touchdown. San Diego backers let out a collective sigh of relief, because there’s no way San Diego was not going to let LaDainian Tomlinson chew up clock, kick a FG to go up two scores, and pin them back to their 20 with the ensuing kickoff. What happens? No field goal, Ravens get the ball back and win the game. You can’t pull that kind of football against the Steelers and expect to win, even at home.

DENVER (-4) over Baltimore
Has any team deserved a 4-0 record less than the Baltimore Ravens? Let’s list all the defeated teams who are better: Eagles, Patriots, Seahawks, Bengals, Broncos, Falcons, and maybe the Chargers (stupid Schottenheimer). Don’t think so? If the Ravens were giving points to any of these teams, would you bet on the Ravens? Nope, no one would. Couple that with the NFL’s second least enjoyable team to play at home, Denver, and this one is easy.

Posted in NFL, Sports Betting