The Sports Truth

Before we get into this week’s picks, we need to talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Has there been a more confusing team through the first seven weeks of a season?

Let’s recap their last four games. They play the Colts, in Indy, and almost pull off the upset, 21-14. They look solid, and supposedly have a stout run defense, so we lean on them at Washington and they promptly allow Clinton Portis to run all over them and lose, 36-30, in OT. In Week 6, the Jaguars are at home against a Jets team that scared the crap out of Indianapolis the week before. Not looking good, we stay away, and go with the Jets.

The result? Jaguars cruise, 41-0. At this point, we’re calling the Redskins game an aberration and, coming off of a bye week, giving only eight to the worst team in football, the Houston Texans.

I don’t know what to think of this team. They’re going to Philadelphia, getting seven points against a team that has lost two games in a row — granted, on the road — to New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Is this a rebound week for the Jaguars? Or was the Jets game the real aberration?

The only thing we do know is that Peyton Manning & Co. are not as good as their 6-0 record. They barely beat the Jaguars and Jets — two decent teams, but by no means good teams — and they’re going to Denver this week. A 6-1 Colts team will look far more mortal Monday morning.

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 6-6-2 SEASON: 43-52-6

TENNESSEE (-3.0) over Houston
I was one of the biggest Vince Young haters when he was made the third overall pick last year, but the man has outperformed expectations. You have to give him credit for the win over Washington because he does not play on a good team, does not have much of a supporting cast, and basically won it by himself. Most rookie quarterbacks win games in spite of themselves, but Young definitely showed me something two weeks ago.

PHILADELPHIA (-7.0) over Jacksonville
Ah, the aforementioned Jaguars. We’re sticking with home teams for the most part this week and the Eagles are coming off two tough losses and looking for someone to beat on, so the pick isn’t all that hard. The key, however, is not being surprised when the Jags win. We just have to be patient and learn to expect anything and everything from the Jaguars.

CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Atlanta
What happened last week in Atlanta was one of the best things that could have happened for gamblers. Michael Vick set a career high in touchdown passes and suddenly everything thinks that Atlanta has figured out how to use Michael Vick as a quarterback. I’ve got bad news for those people –Vick is still not a quarterback — at least not more so than Antwaan Randle-El or Ronald Curry. Against the interception-happy Bengals, the real Michael Vick will stand out.

N.Y. GIANTS (-9.0) over Tampa Bay
Seems I should have paid attention to my sources last week, huh? Damn. Along the lines of teams no one can figure out, we have Tampa Bay. They give up 27 points to the Ravens in Week 1 and then play phenomenal defense against the Eagles last week. Sure, they won on a last-second field goal (the third-longest ever), but did Philly really deserve to win that game anyway? The Buco’s played real well, so the football gods willed that ball through the uprights. However, I’m still not confident in this Tampa Bay team, even getting over one score.

CHICAGO (-16.0) over San Francisco
We didn’t get to address the Bears last week because they were idle, but I’m confident I’ve never seen a luckier win in my life than what happened two Mondays ago in Arizona. It was like watching a 45-car pile-up (not that I’d know, but that’s how I envision it) — turnover after excruciating turnover, it was surreal. The Bears have certainly come back to earth, but still warrant a double-digit spread at home. San Francisco is another one of those confusing teams. They somehow beat St. Louis earlier in the year, but got plastered by the Chiefs and Chargers in consecutive weeks. Seems like that win over St. Louis might have been more luck than skill.

GREEN BAY (-4.0) over Arizona
I regret not being more forceful about taking Green Bay and the points last week. That was such a lock win, I’m not sure why I wasn’t as confident, even though I knew there was no way the Dolphins could win. That’s one of the things about being a fan of a particular team — you’re able to read the other teams in the division fairly well (though, to be honest, I don’t have a clue what to do with the Bills or Jets, so I’m contradicting myself already). I’m not going to make the same mistake again this week. I’m going Chad Johnson on you and guaranteeing the Packers cover this week. Get your dollar bills lined up and lay ‘em on the Pack, this is a lock.

KANSAS CITY (-6.0) over Seattle
Frankly, I’m surprised this spread isn’t higher. Seattle was abysmal last week after Hasselbeck went out and while I know Shaun Alexander is rumored to be coming back, does it matter? What defensive coordinator wouldn’t put 8-9 guys in the box this week? In fact, if I were coach of the Seahawks, I wouldn’t even play Alexander this week. Kansas City is a frightening place to play, Seneca Wallace sucks, and the ‘Hawks have no chance of winning, so why not give Alexander another week of rest? So what if fantasy football owners are furious (obviously I don’t have Alexander) — don’t pander to those losers!

NEW ORLEANS (-2.0) over Baltimore
If Philly couldn’t win in the Katrina Dome, there’s no way the offense-less Ravens will. The Saints will advance to 4-0 this week at the Katrina Dome, and have us at The Sports Truth asking the question, “could Team Katrina go undefeated at the Katrina Dome?” Let’s investigate. In three weeks, they host the Bengals at home, a tough test for sure, but for fun, let’s say they win. December 3, they have San Francisco at home and on December 17, they host Washington. Those are both wins. That would make them 7-0 going into the last game of the year against Carolina. Not to mention the fact that the above scenario gives them a minimum of eight wins (which, looking at their road schedule — at Tampa, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas, and the Giants — they’re gonna need all of). Can Steve Smith beat Team Katrina in Katrina Bowl 8 in a game Team Katrina will probably need to get into the playoffs? I like the Saints to go 8-0 at home this year.

SAN DIEGO (-9.5) over St. Louis
Certainly the hardest game on the board to call, and the spread seems way too high for me. San Diego did not look sharp last week in K.C., and, while I know it’s a hard place to play, I feel if the Chargers are going give 9.5 points to a playoff contending team, they should have played better. And yet, I’m sticking with the Chargers at home and I’m not really sure why. That’s a lot of points, but I just don’t see St. Louis covering. No explanation for this one.

OAKLAND (+9.0) over Pittsburgh
Oakland finally got themselves off the winless bandwagon (let’s face it, we were all rooting for it, thus the bandwagon) by beating up on a still shell-shocked Arizona team. Beyond that irrelevant fact, Atlanta and Vick were able to throw on Pittsburgh, so I think Aaron Walter will be able to as well. Giving nine points to a home underdog is just too many. Even for the Raiders.

New York Jets (-2.0) over CLEVELAND
The Jets get the honor of being the first and only one of two road teams we’re taking this week. Not only does Cleveland stink, but how great did Leon Washington look last week? Where did he come from you ask? He’s a 24-year old undrafted rookie out of Florida State and he’s listed at 5’8”, 202 lbs. That means he’s more like 5’6”, 185 lbs. That’s not big, but he was explosive last week. In the last three games, he’s had 23 rushes for 101 yards, 11 rushes for 58 yards, and 20 rushes for 129 yards. Carry out the middle game numbers to 20 carries and he’s got three straight 100-yard rushing games. Cleveland is 29th in run defense. I smell a 14-3 game and Washington’s numbers looking something like 29 carries for 114 yards and a TD. Sorry Kevan Barlow owners, his time has passed.

DENVER (-3.0) over Indianapolis
The only place harder to play than Kansas City is Denver, and they’re hosting a shaky Colts team. Yes, the Colts are probably gonna win their division and yes, they’re going to the playoffs, but no one is scared of them like they used to be. Sure, we’re all scared of Jake Plummer, but much like our previous game, Tatum Bell is running the ball phenomenally and the Colts are 31st in rush defense. Another low-scoring game.

CAROLINA (-5.0) over Dallas
Carolina is coming off of a nice win at Baltimore two weeks ago, and a tough loss at Cincinnati last week. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are rife with controversy, whether it’s Tony Romo and Drew Bledose, Bill Parcells and Terrell Owens, or just coming off a bad home loss to the Giants. Somehow, the Panthers are favored by less than a touchdown at home against a team in shambles. I just don’t get it sometimes.

New England (-1.0) over MINNESOTA
Very tough game to call, and subsequently a great game for Monday Night Football. Both teams are playing phenomenal run defense (NE: 6th, Min: 1st). Both teams have had very quiet seasons so far, no controversy, no dramatic wins or losses (though Minnesota losing at Buffalo is certainly a bad loss). Both teams have young running backs with veteran quarterbacks. But Brady is the better quarterback and Belichick is a far better coach. Interestingly, both of our road warriors this week are from the pitiful AFC East. Note that both covered last week.

Posted in NFL, Sports Betting