NFL Weekend Guide: Heavy on the Favorites
October 13th, 2006 by Lucas Dwyer[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]
LAST WEEK: 6-6-2 SEASON: 35-35-4
Cincinnati (-5.5) over TAMPA BAY
Is anyone else confused by this spread? Cincinnati is good, right? Tampa Bay is not. The spread just doesn’t make sense. How is it below a touchdown? One decent game vs. New Orleans and all of a sudden Tampa can play with a team like Cincinnati? No chance.
WASHINGTON (-10) over Tennessee
Rule #1 folks: don’t fear the big spread. Washington has been erratic this year, so in their up-and down-schedule, they’re slated for a great week. It’s also hard to imagine Vince Young and the Titans will be able to come up with the level of football they displayed last week vs. Indianapolis on a regular basis.
DALLAS (-13) over Houston
Much like their NFC East rival Redskins, you’ve got to ignore the 13-point spread and lay the points at home vs. a bad team. So often we’re tempted to take the points hoping for a tie game at halftime or something like that, but it’s very rare. This is the same Dallas team that wiped out the Titans two weeks ago and covered an equally large spread.
Buffalo (-1) over DETROIT
How do you even pick this game? Is there anything to like about either team? How many wagers has Vegas recieved on this game, six? Maybe seven? There’s nothing to like about either team, so take the team with the best player: The Bills and Willis McGahee.
ST. LOUIS (-3) over Seattle
Another tough one to call, mainly because Seattle is still without Shaun Alexander. St. Louis, meanwhile, has flown under the radar more than any other team in the NFL right now. Yet, they only beat Green Bay by three last week, squandering a late lead (and giving this prognosticator a badly-needed push). Just like last week, in a pinch, take the home underdog.
ATLANTA (-3) over N.Y. Giants
Sources close to the Giants last week indicated that a poor run defense would come back to haunt them vs. a run-heavy Washington Redskins team. In typical fashion, the defense was stout for the Giants, who cruised to an easy win. Suddenly people aren’t worried about the Giants defense anymore. Welcome to the NFL. The Giants run defense will be really tested this week against the rushing darlings of the NFL, and they won’t pass the test.
Philadelphia (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS
Team Katrina remains undefeated (although not against the spread) at the Katrina Dome, but Katrina Bowl III will be their biggest test of the year. This Eagles team just feels like a team you have to ride out until they lose (or do not cover).
BALTIMORE (-3) over Carolina
Carolina has edged to 3-2 after an 0-2 start, but there’s no way anyone is sold on this team yet. You shouldn’t be either. Denver’s a good team and although the score doesn’t reflect it, Baltimore played them tough last week. Stick with the home team and a good defense.
San Diego (-10) over SAN FRANCISCO
Many bettors are calling this one a slam dunk and that should scare us. The only team the Chargers have blown out this year were the Raiders — congratulations. It’s a lot of points to lay on the road to an improved 49ers squad, but it appears as if Marty Schottenheimer was disgusted with his own play calling two weeks ago in the horrific loss to the Ravens and is allowing Philip Rivers (left) to throw a bit. That’ll help cover the two score spread.
Kansas City (+7) over PITTSBURGH
Two teams who can not make up their mind on what kind of team they want to be. Does Pittsburgh want to be the defending Super Bowl champions, or the team that lost badly to the Bengals? Is K.C. another team that drives The Sports Truth’s favorite coach, Herm Edwards, to scream “you play to win the game!” out of frustration, or the team that crushed the 49ers? A touchdown is just too much to give for a team that has shown little this year and is riding on the coattails of last season.
Miami (-2) over N.Y. JETS
Seems utterly foolish to take the Dolphins on the road at this point, but the Patriots had nothing but glowing reviews for the Miami defense and that’s saying something. It’s hard to imagine, but Joey Harrington is a more effective quarterback than Culpepper, so Miami improves in that regard too. Coming off a 41-0 loss, the Jets are now playing the AAA version of the Jaguars. Gang Green is gonna have to show us something before we put money back on them.
Denver (-15) over OAKLAND
Since there’s no point in even analyzing this matchup, here are three questions about the baseball playoffs:
- Why aren’t the A’s selling the upper deck seats at the Colesium? Are people on the West Coast really so disinterested in the ALCS that they pass on those seats, eschewing the better and pricier seats, and the park can’t sell out? You could sell out a 100,000-seat stadium for a Red Sox, Yankees, Mets or Phillies game.
- Isn’t it a bit ironic that all the baseball fans in the U.S. live in the Northeast, while all the talent comes from California, Texas, Florida and the South? Because of weather patterns, there are so few “local heroes” playing on Northeast teams, yet they sell out constantly. Conversely, A’s playoff games sound like an April Red Sox/Orioles game at Fenway.
- Why on earth are the St. Louis Cardinals pushing Cris Carpenter back a day? Wouldn’t you want him starting Game 1 in New York over Jeff Weaver? This team has no pitching and they’re going to now assure Carpenter can only pitch two games, instead of possibly squeaking out three if he starts Game One? Gotta love the B League.
Chicago (-10.5) over ARIZONA
Much like the Eagles, you have to ride it out with the Bears until they don’t cover. That’s really all there is to it. Speaking of the Bears, they’ve definately made the leap from “good team with awesome defense, but not enough to win it all” to “NFC favorite, probably the best team in the NFL.”
First off, is there any way this team is not going to the playoffs? Not in the NFC North. Much like the Patriots, they could play .500 the rest of the way and still win their division. To bet on Chicago winning the NFC North, you’ve got to put up $1,900 to win $100. Even the Patriots and Colts are better bargains at $1,566 to win $100. Makes you think to yourself “wow, the Bears are only giving 10.5 to the Cardinals?” Right?
