The Sports Truth

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 2-11 SEASON: 37-46-4

San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY
Is anyone else still reeling from San Diego’s loss to the Ravens a few weeks ago? How shocking was that? Besides the gambling implications of that loss, the Chargers are good and the Ravens are not. How did they lose that game? Even with Schottenheimer? Is it possible, though, that Marty realized how atrocious of a loss that is and put Marty-ball to sleep? LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers certainly have been a different team ever since.

Jacksonville (-9.5) over HOUSTON
I’d rant and rave about not fearing the big spread on this one, but the Big Spread Corollary hasn’t been to loss-proof so far. Nevertheless, we’re gonna put it back to the test against a team that is still suffering from Reggie Bush and even Vince Young withdrawal. Speaking of Young, he’s surprised me with how effective (the word “good” seems too strong right now — but his team is winning games) he has been.

New England (-5.5) over BUFFALO
Can anyone figure Buffalo out? They might end up being one of the best 3-13 teams ever. I’m not saying they’re good, but they’re not winning games and headed for that kind of season when, realistically, they should be like 7-9, maybe 8-8 with some breaks. Sadly, no breaks for them this week, as the quietest best team in the NFL marches on in relative obscurity. Don’t agree? Who would you pick if the line was INDIANAPOLIS (-3) vs. New England. I thought so.

ATLANTA (+2.5) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh crushed a banged-up Kansas City team in Pittsburgh and now the bandwagon is up and rolling again. Well, I’m not interested in the ride. I don’t really like Atlanta either (you can only get by with the 26th-rated passing offense for so long) but they’re tough at home.

Green Bay (+5) over MIAMI
I don’t really like picking all these road teams, but shouldn’t people be punished for putting money on Joey Harrington over Brett Favre? That’s as ridiculous as Jeff Suppan winning the NLCS MVP award! Oh, wait a second… what is the world coming to?!?!

Philadelphia (-5.5) over TAMPA BAY
Last time I took the road team giving 5.5 to the home team was… yep, last week, Cincy against Tampa. How did that work out? You know. But something about this game smells of revenge for the Eagles. You could see the look on McNabb’s face last week, like he let that one get away. He couldn’t believe it, but isn’t letting it happen again. New Orleans is good, probably going to the playoffs, but I don’t think they’re as good as the Eagles.

NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) over Detroit
I’d love to know how many people outside of Detroit have watched more than one Lions game this year. Isn’t this one of the must unappealing teams ever? There’s no superstar to watch, no exciting player, they’re not good, they don’t win games, the dome is boring to watch on TV, they play in aboring division — there’s just nothing going for this team now. The Jets, meanwhile, seem like a team that could be 6-8 going into Week 15, but still alive for a playoff spot if 12 different things happen. You heard it here first.

CINCINNATI (-3) over Carolina
I know, they covered last week and contributed to my awful record, but I’m still not sold on the Panthers. Steve Smith (left) is incredible, probably the best receiver in the league, but that’s about it on this team. Is Delhomme on any fantasy roster if Smith isn’t on that team? I doubt it. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been underperforming. Can Carson Palmer’s downswing be entirely attributed to his knee? I really hope not, I need to move him off my fantasy football team soon.

Denver (-4.5) over CLEVELAND
Somewhere last week, it was pointed out that the Raiders were getting 15 points from a team that only averages 12.2 a game (the Broncos). Everyone laughed this off, loaded up on the Broncos, had a comfortable 13-0 lead at half, and lost their bet. That’s what this spread is all about. Vegas does not trust letting the Broncos give more than one score, but anything near a field goal is just ludicrous. Nevertheless, this Broncos team went into New England and thoroughly beat them, winning by 10. How could you ever pick the Browns getting less than a TD, knowing that actually happened?

INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) over Washington
Well, I’ve finally figured the Redskins out — which is ironic, because they’re unpredictable. Even knowing that, it’s clear this team is headed for an 8-8 season with some bad losses (last week to Tennessee) and good wins (two weeks ago over Jacksonville). Indianapolis, meanwhile, is one of the most undeserving 5-0 teams in history. They’ve got more shaky wins than the 2005 White Sox (I know they won the World Series, but you’re lying if you say you picked Chicago to win it all last year and are not a White Sox fan). But, home field is home field and the Colts are always good at home. Oh, and the Colts have their wildly overrated kicker back! Woo hoo!

SEATTLE (-6.5) over Minnesota
This is one of those, “when it doubt, pick the home team” games. Besides, it’s less than a touchdown. While we’re here, how improbable was Seattle’s victory last week? They fumble deep in St. Louis territory with little time left, Torry Holt makes one of the plays of the year on an 80-yard TD catch to put St. Louis up with less than a minute to go, followed by a drive to field goal range, a killer illegal formation penalty on a spike, resulting in a 54-yard field goal to win it for the ‘Hawks? That’s just amazing. It’s almost like the Seahawks cheated death or something.

Arizona (-3) over OAKLAND
It’s going to take some cojones to pick the Cardinals on the road, giving points, after the Monday night debacle — but you’ve gotta do it. I know the Raiders finally covered, killing a lot of us, but come on, this is still the Raiders, right? They only managed to score three points. I won’t say Oakland covered last week, I’d rather say the Broncos didn’t cover, because that’s what it felt like. The Raiders are going to make us money this year, but they were not gonna go 0-16 against the spread. Stick to the plan.

DALLAS (-3) over N.Y. Giants
Two weeks ago, Giants sources close to The Sports Truth all but guaranteed a loss to the Redskins based on a shoddy run defense. Solid football in three of the last four halves including two wins (one against the aforementioned Redskins) has these “sources” guaranteeing that the Giants do no worse than a push this week.

Well, we went against our sources two weeks ago. We’ll do so again.

Posted in NFL