The Sports Truth

The 2006-07 NBA season is right around the corner, and in preparation, The Sports Truth’s respected insider has been breaking down all the key roster moves, training camp reports, reels of game film and fantasy basketball implications. Last week, he brought us an extensive Eastern Conference preview. Now, he turns his attention to the Western Conference. See below.

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

Dallas and San Antonio will continue to own this division, but can the Spurs continue to win 60 games or will their age catch up with them? Houston continues to disappoint, and New Orleans is ready to get up to .500. Memphis is tough to figure out because of the injury to Pau Gasol.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Last Season: 60-22, Lost in NBA Finals
2006-2007 Prediction: 60 wins, 1st in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $92.8 million
Key Additions: Maurice Ager and Austin Croshere.
Key Losses: Marquis Daniels, Keith Van Horn, and Adrian Griffin.
Why they should be better: They basically have the same team back this year and they should be hungrier. Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse and Jason Terry provide plenty of offense and create one-on-ones all over the court.
Fantasy Options: Nowitzki is a top five pick.
Outlook: A battle with Phoenix in the Western Conference Finals seems eminent. There is no reason to believe they won’t win 60 games and their experience in the playoffs last year should help them — unless the referees hold a grudge against them and Mark Cuban.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Last Season: 34-48, 12th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 45 wins, 3rd in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $58.7 million
Key Additions: Bonzi Wells, Shane Battier and Kirk Snyder.
Key Losses: David Wesley and Bob Sura.
Why they should be better: Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are pretty good, but finding the right mix of complementary players has always been a problem. The addition of Battier and Snyder makes sense. If McGrady and Ming are healthy, Snyder can shoot well and Battier can do much more than Juwan Howard or Stromile Swift.
Fantasy Options: Ming is the top center and McGrady is a late first-round selection.
Outlook: The truth is, the Rockets have enough talent to win the NBA title, but they won’t. McGrady or Ming will get hurt and when both of them play together, one will sacrifice their game. In addition, you can’t win with Rafer Alston as your point guard.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Last Season: 47-35, reached playoffs
2006-2007 Prediction: 32 wins, 5th in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $60.4 million
Key Additions: Stromile Swift, Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry.
Key Losses: Shane Battier, Lorenzen Wright and Alexander Johnson.
Why they should be better: Because Nowitzki, Tim Duncan and McGrady are all out for the season. Okay, that’s not true and the Grizzlies are not better. Gasol’s injury and their geriatric backcourt situation will keep them below .500.
Fantasy Options: Someone has to play center, so Jake Tsakilidas makes an interesting fantasy option.
Outlook: This team has real problems. The backcourt of Eddie Jones, Damon Stoudamire and Chucky Atkins is old and not very good. If it wasn’t for Swift’s long arms, this would be the smallest team on the planet without Gasol. And to top it all off, they will highly regret ending up with Rudy “I don’t want to play tonight” Gay. All in all, this will be a forgettable season for Mike Fratello and the Grizz.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Last Season: 38-44, 10th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 41 wins, 4th in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $48.5 million
Key Additions: Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Hilton Armstrong, Bobby Jackson and Cedric Simmons.
Key Losses: PJ Brown, JR Smith, Kirk Snyder and Speedy Claxton.
Why they should be better: Because Chris Paul is back. Paul is one of the best young point guards in the league and he makes everyone better.
Fantasy Options: Paul is probably playing his final season as a second round pick in fantasy basketball — he’ll be a first rounder next year.
Outlook: Another example why Byron Scott got booted out of New Jersey: He worries too much about personnel and the players just don’t like him. He ran Smith and Snyder out of town even though they are both very young and improving players. Unfortunately, GM Jeff Bower got anxious. He could have allowed his young team to grow together and use his cap space in next summer’s huge free agent market, but he panicked and tied up almost 50% of the cap on Chandler and Stojakovic. Yes, they’ll improve, but championship future may have been pushed back.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Last Season: 63-19, Lost in West Finals
2006-2007 Prediction: 58 wins, 2nd in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $66.2 million
Key Additions: Jackie Butler, Matt Bonner, Eric Williams and Jacque Vaughn.
Key Losses: Rasho Nesterovic
Why they should be better: Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammad are both gone. These two were so bad last year they both ended up on the bench in the playoffs. The Spurs still have Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker to carry them into the playoffs.
Fantasy Options: Duncan is not the first rounder he once was and Parker’s value slips a bit with his injured hand.
Outlook: The Spurs’ 63 wins last year were the most in team history, yet they looked vulnerable all year with Duncan struggling and Parker becoming the team’s leading scorer. Bruce Bowen is still an excellent stopper defensively, but this team is getting older and you have to wonder when it will all come to an end. This is probably the year Dallas and possibly Houston slips in front of the dynasty.

NORTHWEST DIVISION

DENVER NUGGETS

Last Season: 44-38, made playoffs
2006-2007 Prediction: 50 wins, 1st in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $61.6 million
Key Additions: J.R. Smith
Key Losses: Francisco Elson, Howard Eisley and Ruben Patterson.
Why they should be better: The Nuggets spent the offseason making sure Carmelo Anthony and Nene would remain in Denver for a while as both signed five-year deals. They also gave Reggie Evans a five-year deal and acquired JR Smith from Chicago via New Orleans. All of the puzzle pieces are in place and Anthony showed many doubters at the World Championships that he can and will be a mature team leader.
Fantasy Options: ‘Melo is a stud, Andre Miller is a serviceable point guard, Marcus Camby is a solid fantasy center and Kenyon Martin continues to disappoint and cry like a baby.
Outlook: Kenyon Martin has single-handedly kept this team from joining the elite in the West, but he’s not going away until 2010. So the Nuggets have done the next best thing by making sure Camby and Nene take care of the paint in Denver. Anthony, Miller, Evans, Camby and Nene have to be one of the best starting fives in the NBA. J.R. Smith, Joe Smith, Martin, Earl Boykins, Julius Hodge and Eduardo Najera provide excellent bench depth. Anything less than 50 wins would be a big letdown.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Last Season: 33-49, 14th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 24 wins, 4th in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $63.8 million
Key Additions: Mike James, Randy Foye and Craig Smith.
Key Losses: Marcus Banks
Why they should be better: The additions of Foye and James finally give this anemic offense a boost. Kevin Garnett and Ricky Davis were the only scorers last season on the floor with three guys who were not even a threat.
Fantasy Options: Garnett is still a top-five pick. James’ numbers will come down, but he’ll still be asked to score.
Outlook: 24 wins is a very low prediction, but also quite possible. I know it seems illogical with Garnett, but what happens if he gets hurt or even traded? If Garnett stays, James plays well, Foye slashes and adds some athleticism to the offense and Marko Jaric improves as a point guard, they will be better, but the Timberwolves are still too small inside to compete with better teams in the West. It’s time to start over. Unfortunately, the Timberwolves are the poster childs for bad contracts. Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, Mark Madsen, Jaric and Troy Hudson are all locked up until the 2009-10 season — at least they won’t have to worry about improving their bench.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

Last Season: 21-61, 15th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 21 wins, 15th in West
Estimated 06-07 Salary: $72.1 million
Key Additions: LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Jamaal Magloire, Raef LaFrentz and Dan Dickau.
Key Losses: Viktor Khryapa, Steve Blake, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and Brian Skinner.
Why they should be better: Can they get any worse? Actually, they could be. Zach Randolph and Darius Miles are like hemorrhoids that just won’t go away. Blazers’ brass are probably hoping they will both end up in jail sooner than later. Incarceration would open up more playing time for youg studs like Roy, Aldridge, Jarrett Jack, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster and international layaways Sergio Rodriquez and Joel Freeland.
Fantasy Options: Joel Pryzbilla finds a way to score amidst all of the confusion. Jack will likely take over the point guard position.
Outlook: The outlook is not good and another 20-win season is likely, but at least there is young talent to build around. Of course, as long as Randolph and Miles are not in jail (give it time) this team will be handcuffed.

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS

Last Season: 35-47, 11th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 30 wins, 4th in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $49.2 million
Key Additions: Mouhamed Saer Sene
Key Losses: None
Why they should be better: With three project centers on the roster, Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Saer Sene, the Sonics are trying to groom a frontcourt. Both Swift and Petro looked as if they might be able to provide some contributions this season along side Chris Wilcox.
Fantasy Options: Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Earl Watson are all fabulous shooters who will gun away from behind the three-point line. Wilcox 14 and 8 in the final 29 games of the season, he could be a breakout star this year.
Outlook: There are statistics that actually prove the Sonics were the worst defensive team in the last the 30 years of the NBA last season. Problem is, they might not be better this season. Lewis, Wilcox and Allen play zero defense and all three of them starters. The Sonics also wasted a lottery pick when they drafted Saer Sene this summer when strong wing players like Ronnie Brewer were still available. Ray Allen is 31 and Lewis could easily opt out of his contract and become a free agent after this season, so the need for young wing players is clearly evident. They’ll get another shot at a lottery pick at the end of the year.

UTAH JAZZ

Last Season: 41-41, 9th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 46 wins, 2nd in division
Estimated 06-07 Salary: $59.6 million
Key Additions: Derek Fisher, Ronnie Brewer and Rafael Araujo.
Key Losses: Devin Brown, Kris Humphries and Keith McLeod
Why they should be better: The Jazz went 11-8 when Carlos Boozer was on the floor, Jerry Sloan is hoping Boozer plays more than 19 games.
Fantasy Options: Boozer is a 20/10 guy when healthy and Andrei Kirilenko is the most underrated fantasy player in the league, grab AK in the second round.
Outlook: The Jazz are very close to becoming serious playoff contenders. They are build around Boozer, Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur and Deron Williams—not a bad group. Throw in C.J. Miles, Matt Harpring, Fisher and Brewer and you have a pretty solid young team. They led the league in rebounding last season and they need to improve their team speed, something Brewer helps with, but this team could win a few more games this year and might be able to hang with Denver.

PACIFIC DIVISION

Watch out Pacific Division, Amare’s back! Amare Stoudemire’s healthy return to a lineup in Phoenix, who advanced to the Western Conference Finals without him, could mean trouble to the rest of the division and maybe even the West. Meanwhile, the Kobe Bryant show will help the Lakers slip into the playoffs and we’ll just have to see if the Clippers can improve once again. Sacramento thinks they are better this year, but we’ll have to wait and see.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Last Season: 34-48, 12th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 42 wins, 4th in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $63.6 million
Key Additions: Patrick O’Bryant, Devin Brown and Keith McLeod.
Key Losses: Derek Fisher
Why they should be better: Don Nelson takes over for Mike Montgomery as head coach and he desperately needs to teach this team some discipline. Baron Davis kills this team, when he plays, with his poor decision making and bad shot selection. Davis ignored Montgomery last season, Nelson will not allow that to happen.
Fantasy Options: Andris Biedrins makes for an interesting sleeper pick at the center position.
Outlook: The Warriors should be better, but Baron Davis continues to hurt this team. Jason Richardson is extremely talented, but they still need a point guard who can distribute. Monta Ellis looked excellent in his first season and Biedrins made a very good contribution in the second half. Troy Murphy and Ike Diogu or ok on the offensive end of the floor, but defensively they are not very good. If Nelson can get them in order, the Warriors should be able to win more games with their talent.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Last Season: 47-35, 6th in the West
2006-2007 Prediction: 55 wins, second in division
Estimated 06-07 Salary: $57.3 million
Key Additions: Tim Thomas and Aaron Williams.
Key Losses: Vladimir Radmanovic
Why they should be better: A healthy Corey Maggette (played just 33 games last season) and the continued maturity of Shaun Livingston can help the Clippers win even more games this season.
Fantasy Options: Elton Brand is a complete stud who dominated last season. Chris Kaman is a legit center and Livington could be ready to break out.
Outlook: The Clip-Joint might be ready to make one more step and challenge to get out of the West in the playoffs. If Brand continues to improve and Livington can play more minutes to reduce the role of the 37-year-old Sam Cassell, the Clippers could be even deeper next season.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Last Season: 45-37, lost in first round
2006-2007 Prediction: 54 wins, 3rd in division
Estimated 06-07 Salary: $77.4 million
Key Additions: Maurice Evans, Vladimir Radmanovic, Shammond Williams and Jordan Farmar.
Key Losses: Devean George
Why they should be better: The Lakers finally made a few moves this offseason — something they forgot to do while Shaq was in town. The addition of Shammond Williams might seem like a small move, but his ability to run the point is something the Lakers desperately need. That is the same reason why they drafted Farmar. The acquisition of Evans made complete sense as well.
Fantasy Options: Kobe is the next pick after LeBron.
Outlook: If Evans can score a few points and either Williams, Farmar, Smush Parker or Sasha Vujacic can solidify the point position, this team threaten in the West. But if the same old Kwame Brown shows up and Kobe gets hurt, the Lakers can be looking at last place.

PHOENIX SUNS

Last Season: 54-28, lost in West Finals
2006-2007 Prediction: 61 wins, 1st in division
Estimated 06-07 Salary: $65.2 million
Key Additions: Marcus Banks and Jumaine Jones.
Key Losses: Tim Thomas and Eddie House.
Why they should be better: A healthy Stoudemire gives them a post presence they did not have last year. Sure, Boris Diaw was an excellent surprise at the high post, but he rarely entered the paint. If Kurt Thomas remains healthy, the Suns will easily be a better team this season.
Fantasy Options: Steve Nash is a stud…especially in roto leagues with assists. All of the Suns shoot the three very well, including Shawn Marion.
Outlook: Without a doubt, the Suns will be the most exciting team in the NBA once again this year. The healthy return of Stoudemire makes this team a realistic championship contender. Their up and down style of play will give teams plenty of trouble. But we all know the old adage: Live by the sword, die by the sword. When the Suns aren’t hitting the three, they struggle.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Last Season: 44-38, 8th seed
2006-2007 Prediction: 40 wins, 5th in division
Estimated 06-07 Salary: $62.6 million
Key Additions: John Salmons, Loren Woods and Quincy Douby.
Key Losses: Bonzi Wells
Why they should be better: The emergence of Kevin Martin and a full season with Ron Artest should help the Kings.
Fantasy Options: Brad Miller qualifies a center, which makes him a good option. Keep an eye on Kevin Martin.
Outlook: This team is just way too thin in the middle and Brad Miller is starting to slow down. Artest could spark the Kings, but they have less talent than any other team in their division.

PROJECTED RECORDS, BY DIVISION
(y-division winner; x-playoff team)

SOUTHWEST

y-Dallas, 60-22
x-San Antonio, 58-24
x-Houston, 45-37
New Orleans, 41-41
Memphis, 32-50

NORTHWEST

y-Denver, 50-32
x-Utah, 46-36
Seattle, 30-52
Minnesota, 24-58
Portland, 21-61

PACIFIC

y-Phoenix, 61-21
x-L.A. Clippers, 55-27
x-L.A. Lakers, 54-28
Golden State, 42-40
Sacramento, 40-42

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