The Sports Truth

The 2006-07 NBA season is right around the corner, and in preparation, The Sports Truth’s respected insider has been breaking down all the key roster moves, training camp reports, preseason game film and even fantasy implications. Leaving no stone unturned, below is his extensive Eastern Conference preview, with his thoughts on the West to come later in the week.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

The Atlantic Division will have the weakest winner in the league. The team that comes away with this division will probably be the most likely upset in the first round. New Jersey cruised to an easy division championship last year and they should run away once again. Boston and Toronto are young and talented, but just don’t have enough to be a factor in the East. New York and Philadelphia will both have to suffer another brutal season before they can really fix their problems.

BOSTON CELTICS

Last Season: 33-49, 11th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 41 wins, 2nd in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $60.6 million
Key Addidions: Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Rajon Rondo, and Leon Powe
Key Losses: Raef Lafrentz and Orien Greene
Why they should be better: They finally have the players to fulfill their up-tempo style. Paul Pierce had his best season as a pro last year and the C’s did not even go to the playoffs. Always looking for a trade partner, GM Danny Ainge has rebuilt the team once again bringing in Telfair to run the point and Ratliff to man the middle, while Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak take care of the scoring. If Telfair can solidify the point position, the running Celtics could pose a problem for their slower counterparts in the Atlantic Division.
Fantasy Options: Pierce is worthy of first-round selection, but everyone after him is pretty much a crapshoot. Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins and Gerald Green are all worthy of late selections in keeper leagues.
Outlook: It’s time for the younger players to step up. Pierce will do his thing, but he needs help around him. Tony Allen, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Leon Powe and Telfair all have the talent to be stars and none of them have been on this Earth for 25 years, but they need to buy into the up-tempo system and use their athletic ability on offense and defense.

NEW JERSEY NETS

Last Season: 49-33, 1st in Division
2006-2007 Prediction: 48 wins, 1st in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $66.6 million
Key Additions: Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Hassan Adams, and Mikki Moore.
Key Losses: None
Why they should be better: Increased athletic depth off the bench… okay, that’s sounds trivial, but the bench the Nets survived with last season was old, slow and pretty much ineffective. Antoine Wright was a bust in his first season, but he could be rejuvenated on a second unit with Williams, Boone, Adams and Moore.
Fantasy Options: Jason Kidd is not the fantasy stud he once was, Vince Carter has too many terrible shooting nights and Richard Jefferson is basically the third option in this offense. All of this means Carter is worthy of a second-round selection while Kidd and Jefferson should fall to the third and beyond. Nenad Kristic is a good option at the center position.
Outlook: Some would say they underachieved last year, but I would say they overachieved. They basically maxed out their ability thanks a 10-game winning streak in the second quarter of the season that gave them some breathing room. They need their younger players to give Kidd, Jefferson and Carter a rest. New Jersey should win this division, but Boston and even Toronto will play an up-tempo style that could give them troubles.

NEW YORK KNICKS

Last Season: 23-59, 15th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 22 wins, 5th in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $140.5 million
Key Additions: Jared Jefferies, Renaldo Balkman and Mardy Collins
Key Losses: Jackie Butler
Why they should be better: Hope. Alan Houston, Jalen Rose, Maurice Taylor, Shandon Anderson, Eddie Curry and Jerome Williams should all be off the roster at the end of this season. Maybe Isiah Thomas can find a fool who would be willing to give up some young talent or draft picks for one of these expiring contracts. If he does, at least the Knicks and their fans can hope for a better season in 2007-08, but it won’t happen this year.
Fantasy Options: Not many here. Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis are worth drafting, but don’t build your fantasy team around them. Channing Frye showed promise last season before getting hurt, if they give him 35 minutes per game, he could provide good numbers as a center.
Outlook: Another dreary year. The Knicks are just another New York team that believes throwing money at their problems will solve everything — it just does not work. Thomas needs to find a way to weed out the bad players from the good players. The Knicks need to develop Quentin Richardson, Jamal Crawford, Frye, Nate Robinson, Balkman, David Lee and Collins into role players a superstar would like to come play with in 2007.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Last Season: 38-44, 9th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 29 wins, 4th in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $95.7 million
Key Additions: Rodney Carney, Alan Henderson
Key Losses: John Salmons
Why they should be better: Better depth and athleticism? If the two A.I.s (Iverson and Iguodala), Rodney Carney and Samuel Dalembert are willing to run, this team can be a threat in the open court.
Fantasy Options: Allen Iverson and Chris Webber should be off the board in the second round. Iverson is worthy of a late first-round selection and Webber’s 20-10 line last season was impressive. Kyle Korver can knock down 3’s, but don’t be surprised if he loses playing time to the rookie Carney.
Outlook: The 76ers will regret not moving Iverson. They are pretty much locked into Iverson, Webber and Dalembert for two more seasons at $51 million for the trio. They can’t trade Webber because he has very little value and Dalembert’s contract is way too long for a 7-footer who doesn’t play defense, but Iverson would be a huge pickup for any team in the NBA. Unfortunately for Philly, the best offer came from within their division (Boston). The biggest reason for the anticipated drop in wins is health. Webber and Iverson were healthy last year, I don’t expect another miracle this season.

TORONTO RAPTORS

Last Season: 27-55, 12th in the East
2006-2007 Prediction: 35 wins, 3rd in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $45.5 million
Key Additions: Andrea Bargnani, T.J. Ford, Fred Jones, Anthony Parker, Rasho Nesterovic, and Jorge Garbajosa.
Key Losses: Charlie Villaneuva, Mike James, Rafael Araujo and Antonio Davis.
Why they should be better: Just look at the Key Additions. They loaded up on good international players who know how to pass the ball, and they went from a half-court oriented offense to a track team.
Fantasy Options: Chris Bosh is a first-rounder who provides excellent shooting percentages. If they run, T.J. Ford could be a steal a point guard.
Outlook: Finding the second best player on the Raptors is not easy to do. It could be Bargnani or some other surprise, but at least the Raptors are loaded with speed on the wings with Joey Graham, Fred Jones, Anthony Parker and P.J. Tucker. Toronto is playing this season just to improve enough to entice a good free agent over the border in the summer of 2007, but they are young enough and dumb enough to at least compete for 82 games.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Probably the toughest division in all of basketball right now, as all five teams could make the playoffs this season. Detroit has dominated, staying ahead of LeBron James and the convicts in Indiana. Unfortunately for the aging Pistons, Milwaukee and Chicago could also take the Central this time. At the end of the season, the team that wins this division will have earned it.

CHICAGO BULLS

Last Season: 41-41, 7th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 40 wins, 5th in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $52.8 million
Key Additions: Ben Wallace, P.J. Brown, Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefolosha, Adrian Griffin and Viktor Khryapa.
Key Losses: Tyson Chandler and Darius Songaila
Why they should be better: Ben Wallace immediately makes them better, but if that does not work out, I’m sure Isiah Thomas would like to continue building this team for GM John Paxson.
Fantasy Options: Wallace as a center gives you boards and blocks, but nothing else. Kirk Hinrich should add some assists and good shooting percentages, but the rest of the team spreads the offense.
Outlook: This could be the best defensive team in the league, despite a lack of size inside… other than Wallace. Hinrich needs to continue to get better and the development of Thomas will be key. They are still looking at 2007 to make a big run at a free agent to finalize the rebuilding of the Bulls.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Last Season: 50-32, 4th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 52 wins, 1st in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $63 million
Key Additions: Shannon Brown, Daniel Gibson, David Wesley and Scot Pollard
Key Losses: None
Why they should be better: This is the same team from last year that rode Lebron James to 50 wins. If Larry Hughes can stay healthy, they have a good shot at winning this tough division.
Fantasy Options: James should be a top three pick with Kobe and Dirk. Hughes fills up the steals column and Zydrunas Ilgauskas is not the worst option at center.
Outlook: If James can continue to get better, the Cavs could vault to the top of the Central division. Brown and Gibson need to take control of the point position and make some outside shots — something Eric Snow and Damon Jones could not do last year. Big Z must remain healthy, but if the role players can do their thing, LBJ can lead them to the promised land.

DETROIT PISTONS

Last Season: 64-18, Lost to Heat in Eastern Conference Finals
2006-2007 Prediction: 48 wins, 3rd in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $57.1 million
Key Additions: Nazr Mohammad and Ronald Murray.
Key Losses: Ben Wallace
Why they should be better: Well, they really shouldn’t be. All the moves the Pistons made since winning the title in 2004 were done so they could keep Ben Wallace this year and Chauncey Billups next season while staying under the cap, but Wallace’s departure made them go after Mohammad. Nazr is a good rebounder, but he lacks what Wallace gave them on the defensive end. The rest of the team struggled at times last year and could crack without young bodies to help out in a division loaded with young talent.
Fantasy Options: Richard Hamilton and Billups are both worthy of second and third round selections.
Outlook: This could be the year when two teams finish ahead of the Pistons. They are in a very strong division that continues to improve, but Detroit has the best and smartest veterans in the Central Division. If Rasheed Wallace can stay on the floor, despite the emphasis on stopping overpaid thugs from crying all game, the Pistons will still be a threat.

INDIANA PACERS

Last Season: 41-41, 8th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 46 wins, 4th in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $58.7 million
Key Additions: Al Harrington and Marquis Daniels.
Key Losses: Fred Jones, Scot Pollard, Anthony Johnson and Austin Croshere
Why they should be better: Because they’re healthier? Okay, I am grasping at straws here. The addition of Al Harrington should help, but this team still lacks a solid point guard and is extremely injury-prone. That said, the Pacers found a way to win 41 games last year even though most of the team was injured. Indiana has plenty of depth, especially up front.
Fantasy Options: Jermaine O’Neal is worth early second round consideration. He’s one of the best players in the league when healthy.
Outlook: Hopefully the NBA will step in and give Stephen Jackson a one-year suspension for his complete lack of a brain, but until that happens, this team is going to continue to cry too much and crack under pressure. They need to find a way to hold it together for an entire season and Jackson is looking more and more like Darius Miles every day of the week.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Last Season: 40-42, 8th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 50 wins, 2nd in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $61 million
Key Additions: Charlie Villanueva, Ruben Patterson, and Lynn Greer.
Key Losses: Jamaal Magloire, Joe Smith and TJ Ford.
Why they should be better: Andrew Bogut actually lived up to the first pick hype, now he needs to avoid a sophomore slump. With Ford out of the way, Maurice Williams can run the show, something he did very well last year. Throw in Villanueva and Michael Redd and the Bucks have an excellent nucleus to build around.
Fantasy Options: Bogut might be worthy of a high pick, especially in keeper leagues. Redd is a scoring machine, but that’s it. Mo Williams is a top ten point guard — seriously!
Outlook: The Bucks have a great chance this year to take that next step. They have good depth, excellent outside shooting and balance inside. Unfortunately, they’re in a tough division and fall asleep on defense too often. If Terry Stotts can fix these lapses, Milwaukee could be primed to make a nice run over the next few years.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

I’d like to think the Orlando Magic and the Gilbert Arenas-led Wizards are ready to challenge Shaq and D-Wade, but it just isn’t going to happen this year. While the Hawks are developing young talent and the Bobcats are doing whatever they’re doing down there, the Heat will run his division and the Magic and Wizards will fight for the final playoff berth.

ATLANTA HAWKS

Last Season: 26-56, 13th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 20 wins, 4th in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $44.3 million
Key Additions: Speedy Claxton, Lorenzen Wright, and Shelden Williams.
Key Losses: Al Harrington
Why they should be better: Athletic, young talent. They lost their go-to guy when they sent Harrington to Indiana for a first-round pick, but they created playing time for young guns Marvin Williams and Josh Smith. With Claxton solidifying the point, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams and Smith will create a very athletic lineup.
Fantasy Options: Joe Johnson is stat-sheet filler. Zaza Pachulia’s 12-8 is not bad at the center position.
Outlook: This will be another rebuilding year, but if the Hawks commit to developing Smith, Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, Pachulia and Josh Childress, they just might have a good nucleus in place.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Last Season: 26-56, 13th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 19 wins, 5th in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Salary: $33.4 million
Key Additions: Adam Morrison and Othella Harrington.
Key Losses: Jumaine Jones.
Why they should be better: They are young and just might be healthy. Sean May and Omeka Okafor missed most of last season with back injuries, but Gerald Wallace and Primoz Brezec did a pretty good job of helping this team to 26 wins. Are they ready to make another jump?
Fantasy Options: Raymond Felton and Brevin Knight are both excellent assist guys. Expect both of them to start early in the season, with Knight getting the assists and Felton playing the two-guard spot.
Outlook: Rumor has it they are trying to make a big free agent splash next summer — like 10 other teams. The only problem is, Vince Carter may not be the guy to build around and Chauncey Billups may not leave Detroit. Many believe the Bobcats are ready to make a big leap, but I’m weary about the type of injuries May and Okafor have. Without those two big guys, they are too weak inside to compete.

MIAMI HEAT

Last Season: 52-30, Won NBA Championship
2006-2007 Prediction: 55 wins, 1st in East
Estimated ‘06-’07 Prediction: $64.9 million
Key Additions: Mike Gansey and Earl Barron.
Key Losses: Derek Anderson
Why they should be better: Because Dwyane Wade gets better every year. The truth is they did nothing to make this team better, but they are all back and know what it takes to win.
Fantasy Options: If you know anything about fantasy, you know you should avoid Shaq at all costs. Wade is a first-rounder and Udonis Haslem is on the verge of being an All-Star.
Outlook: Mark it down — Mike Gansey will have an impact on this team. He can shoot, dribble-drive and extend the floor like Damon Jones did two years ago. The only difference is, Gansey is tough and not allergic to defense. It’s time for Miami to get some production out of Dorrell Wright. The Heat refused to trade the kid, now it is time to play him. They only need to do enough to make the playoffs, then let Shaq and Wade take over.

ORLANDO MAGIC

Last Season: 36-46, 10th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 40 wins, 2nd in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $59.4 million
Key Additions: JJ Redick and Keith Bogans
Key Losses: Deshawn Stephenson
Why they should be better: The dominating inside presence of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic. Anyone who called the 21-year-old Milicic a bust in the last three years should not be allowed to watch basketball again. Only a foolish sportswriter and a drunk guy at a bar can call a guy a bust before his 21st birthday. Meanwhile, Milicic went out and dominated at the World Championships this summer leading the tournament in blocked shots. I’m not really sure why they gave Tony Battie an extension, but it came relatively cheaply (4 years / $22 million).
Fantasy Options: Besides Milicic, Howard is almost worthy of a first round pick.
Outlook: The Magic could be really good depending on how much Grant Hill can do and if Redick can knock down threes. With Hill’s contract expiring after the season, the Magic can lock up Milicic and bring in a valuable free agent before addressing Howard in 2008. They have the pieces in place to overtake the Heat in 2007-08, but need to find out if Jameer Nelson can run the point.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

Last Season: 42-40, 6th in East
2006-2007 Prediction: 39 wins, 3rd in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $61 million
Key Additions: Darius Songalia and DeShawn Stephenson.
Key Losses: Jared Jefferies.
Why they should be better: They need to get lucky if they are actually going to be better this year. On talent alone, they are basically a 30-win team, but Gilbert Arenas will find ways to keep them close .500. Andray Blatche needs to get more minutes, he could be a nice compliment to Arenas.
Fantasy Options: Arenas is the only worthy player on this team.
Outlook: This team is a collection of the most overrated talent in the league. Caron Butler, Brendon Haywood and Antawn Jamison do not contribute to wins. Jamison just pads his stats by gunning threes, while taking way too many shots. Antonio Daniels and Arenas are excellent off the dribble, but have nobody to dump the ball off to. I’d like to see Blatche step up. This team has a ton of young, foreign talent that could provide a lift, but I don’t see it happening this year. If Arenas were to miss 50 games with an injury, this team would struggle to win 20 games.

PROJECTED RECORDS, BY DIVISION
(x-division winner; y-playoff team)

ATLANTIC

1. y-New Jersey, 49-33
2. x-Boston, 41-41
3. Toronto, 35-47
4. Philadelphia, 29-53
5. New York, 22-60

CENTRAL

1. y-Cleveland, 52-30
2. x-Milwaukee, 50-32
3. x-Detroit, 48-34
4. x-Indiana, 46-36
5. x-Chicago, 40-42

SOUTHEAST

1. y-Miami, 55-27
2. Orlando, 40-42
3. Washington, 39-43
4. Atlanta, 20-62
5. Charlotte, 19-63

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