The Sports Truth

Okay, so we were 1-3 in our Division Series predictions. It happens to the best of them… and also to the Sports Truth staff. Here, the “experts” take a look inside the upcoming Championship Series matchups.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

DETROIT TIGERS (95-67, 3-1) vs. OAKLAND ATHLETICS (93-69, 3-0)

Why the Tigers will win: Because their pitching staff is lights out — even more so than Oakland’s — and their lineup is far superior. Detroit’s #4 starter, Nate Robertson, is a guy who can outperform Oakland’s Barry Zito. With Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman ready for Games 3 and 4 at Comerica Park, the Tigers can be confident in every pitching matchup. The Tiger ‘pen could start resembling the White Sox relief corps last year. Bored. This is certainly possible with everyone from Curtis Granderson to Carlos Guillen to Craig Monroe to Marcus Thames catching fire at some point.
Why the A’s will win: Because they have no business getting this far as it is, everyone counts them out, and they’re not intimidated by the odds. If you know anything about Oakland, you know what they think of conventional wisdom. Their seemingly rag-tag lineup gets big hits when they’re needed and their formidable pitching staff carries the load. Do you really count them out at this point after what they did to the Twins?
Key factors: Second basemen and catchers. Why? Other Tigers grab headlines, but Placido Polanco is a “glue” player. A solid hitter in the two-hole, one who hits .396 with RISP, and a terrific defender, the Dominican is often overlooked, but a guy that does all the little things and one this team can’t win without. When he was injured, they struggled. On the flip side, Oakland second baseman Mark Ellis is injured, leaving DeAngelo Jiminez to pick up the slack. Not good. Behind the plate, Ivan Rodriguez has led the Tigers’ resurgence ever since he signed a four-year, $40M deal after the 2003 season. A future Hall of Famer and veteran playoff performer, he’s dangerous in every at-bat and even more valuable than Oakland’s Jason Kendall, who’s indispensable in his own right.
Predicted outcome: What 19-31 skid to end the season? As much as the press loves to heap criticism on Alex Rodriguez and his Yankee teammates, the Division Series beating put on them by the Tigers is a testament to how solid Detroit is, not New York’s futility. Oakland has had a tremendous year and Billy Beane has been vindicated in every sense upon reaching his first ALCS. But Detroit is simply a superior team, top to bottom. Tigers 4, A’s 1.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (83-78, 3-1) vs. NEW YORK METS (97-65, 3-0)

Why the Cardinals will win: Um, Albert Pujols? There’s no reason St. Louis should be able to pull this series out, but with Phat Albert in the lineup, you can never be so sure. No other player in this series, or probably the major leagues, could have that said about him. For the Cards to prevail, a torrid Pujols would have to be accompanied by Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and David Eckstein all playing — and playing extremely well. That could be a tall order, but it’s a necessary one, because they’re not going to shut the Mets’ offense down.
Why the Mets will win: Pedro who? The New York pitching staff held up fine in the NLDS against Los Angeles. These guys made the Dodgers look terrible with power, speed, timely hitting, serviceable stars and solid relief work. Hard to ask for more than that in a playoff series, but the Mets may have provided it. This is a club that plays with heart, emotion and has a darn good time — amazing for a team with so many high-priced veterans. Carlos Beltran is living up to his potential, Jose Reyes has given credence to all of the “most exciting player in baseball” hype, and Tom Glavine is still a gamer despite his inability to hit 90 on the radar gun.
Key factor: Chris Carpenter. He’s the Cardinals’ most effective pitcher by far, and how Tony LaRussa manages his starts (as well as how many he can get in) will influence how long St. Louis hangs in this thing. Also, don’t overlook the impact of broadcasters Joe Buck and Tim McCarver pulling hard for their beloved Cardinals.
Predicted outcome: The Sports Truth doubted the Mets once and won’t make that mistake again… at least not against a Cardinal team that we’re not sure should be in the NLCS. Give Tony LaRussa & Co. credit for toughing out the ALDS with San Diego, but they’re overmatched in this one, big time. Mets 4, Cardinals 1.

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