The Sports Truth

The 2006-07 NBA season is right around the corner, and in preparation, The Sports Truth’s respected insider has been breaking down all the key roster moves, training camp reports, reels of game film and fantasy basketball implications. Last week, he brought us an extensive Eastern Conference preview. Now, he turns his attention to the Western Conference. See below.

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

Dallas and San Antonio will continue to own this division, but can the Spurs continue to win 60 games or will their age catch up with them? Houston continues to disappoint, and New Orleans is ready to get up to .500. Memphis is tough to figure out because of the injury to Pau Gasol.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Last Season: 60-22, Lost in NBA Finals
2006-2007 Prediction: 60 wins, 1st in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $92.8 million
Key Additions: Maurice Ager and Austin Croshere.
Key Losses: Marquis Daniels, Keith Van Horn, and Adrian Griffin.
Why they should be better: They basically have the same team back this year and they should be hungrier. Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse and Jason Terry provide plenty of offense and create one-on-ones all over the court.
Fantasy Options: Nowitzki is a top five pick.
Outlook: A battle with Phoenix in the Western Conference Finals seems eminent. There is no reason to believe they won’t win 60 games and their experience in the playoffs last year should help them — unless the referees hold a grudge against them and Mark Cuban.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Last Season: 34-48, 12th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 45 wins, 3rd in Division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $58.7 million
Key Additions: Bonzi Wells, Shane Battier and Kirk Snyder.
Key Losses: David Wesley and Bob Sura.
Why they should be better: Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are pretty good, but finding the right mix of complementary players has always been a problem. The addition of Battier and Snyder makes sense. If McGrady and Ming are healthy, Snyder can shoot well and Battier can do much more than Juwan Howard or Stromile Swift.
Fantasy Options: Ming is the top center and McGrady is a late first-round selection.
Outlook: The truth is, the Rockets have enough talent to win the NBA title, but they won’t. McGrady or Ming will get hurt and when both of them play together, one will sacrifice their game. In addition, you can’t win with Rafer Alston as your point guard.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Last Season: 47-35, reached playoffs
2006-2007 Prediction: 32 wins, 5th in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $60.4 million
Key Additions: Stromile Swift, Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry.
Key Losses: Shane Battier, Lorenzen Wright and Alexander Johnson.
Why they should be better: Because Nowitzki, Tim Duncan and McGrady are all out for the season. Okay, that’s not true and the Grizzlies are not better. Gasol’s injury and their geriatric backcourt situation will keep them below .500.
Fantasy Options: Someone has to play center, so Jake Tsakilidas makes an interesting fantasy option.
Outlook: This team has real problems. The backcourt of Eddie Jones, Damon Stoudamire and Chucky Atkins is old and not very good. If it wasn’t for Swift’s long arms, this would be the smallest team on the planet without Gasol. And to top it all off, they will highly regret ending up with Rudy “I don’t want to play tonight” Gay. All in all, this will be a forgettable season for Mike Fratello and the Grizz.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Last Season: 38-44, 10th in West
2006-2007 Prediction: 41 wins, 4th in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $48.5 million
Key Additions: Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler, Hilton Armstrong, Bobby Jackson and Cedric Simmons.
Key Losses: PJ Brown, JR Smith, Kirk Snyder and Speedy Claxton.
Why they should be better: Because Chris Paul is back. Paul is one of the best young point guards in the league and he makes everyone better.
Fantasy Options: Paul is probably playing his final season as a second round pick in fantasy basketball — he’ll be a first rounder next year.
Outlook: Another example why Byron Scott got booted out of New Jersey: He worries too much about personnel and the players just don’t like him. He ran Smith and Snyder out of town even though they are both very young and improving players. Unfortunately, GM Jeff Bower got anxious. He could have allowed his young team to grow together and use his cap space in next summer’s huge free agent market, but he panicked and tied up almost 50% of the cap on Chandler and Stojakovic. Yes, they’ll improve, but championship future may have been pushed back.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Last Season: 63-19, Lost in West Finals
2006-2007 Prediction: 58 wins, 2nd in division
Estimated ‘06-’07 Payroll: $66.2 million
Key Additions: Jackie Butler, Matt Bonner, Eric Williams and Jacque Vaughn.
Key Losses: Rasho Nesterovic
Why they should be better: Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammad are both gone. These two were so bad last year they both ended up on the bench in the playoffs. The Spurs still have Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker to carry them into the playoffs.
Fantasy Options: Duncan is not the first rounder he once was and Parker’s value slips a bit with his injured hand.
Outlook: The Spurs’ 63 wins last year were the most in team history, yet they looked vulnerable all year with Duncan struggling and Parker becoming the team’s leading scorer. Bruce Bowen is still an excellent stopper defensively, but this team is getting older and you have to wonder when it will all come to an end. This is probably the year Dallas and possibly Houston slips in front of the dynasty.

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Why is one man’s decision to retire permission for others to react?

Minutes after Tiki Barber’s decision to retire from the New York Giants at season’s end was reported by the New York Times, others chimed in. Since then the opinions have not stopped. And the fallout has nothing to do with Barber’s feelings, only everyone else’s.

Among media and fans, there has been shock, denial, worry, acceptance and a fair share of criticism.

The pervading sense seemed tinged with betrayal: How could someone in the prime of his career, holding the key to the Super Bowl hopes of his franchise, have the gall to walk away?

It’s an odd relationship fans have with athletes. We do more than cheer; we help determine legacies. In pro sports, the timing of a retirement is among the most scrutinized subjects. Some athletes are criticized for playing too long, others not long enough.

As if it’s our place to say.

“There is something fundamentally wrong about that,” Barber told the Times. “Because as someone who has ownership over my own life, and has been given the God-given thing that all of us have, which is free will, I should be able to choose when I want to leave and if I want to stay.”

Tiki was torched this week by a number of “journalists,” including none other than Michael Irvin, the former Cowboys receiver and current ESPN analyst. By announcing his intention to retire now, Barber is a distraction in Irvin’s warped mind.

Note that the Giants’ all-time leading rusher and receiver announced his plans two weeks ago. New York has soundly beaten Atlanta and (fittingly), the Tony Romo-led Cowboys in its last two games. Clearly he’s distracting to fans and reporters, but not to the only 52 people who matter.

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The Sports Truth has its eye on sports… and likes nothing more than to spout its truthiness at every turn. So with a nod to the the incomparable Stephen Colbert, host of Comedy Central’s The Colbert Report, we pay tribute to the week in sports with our very own version of the “On Notice” board. Don’t ever think you can pull a fast one on us, BCS. We’ve got our eye on you!

Yes, it’s quite an interesting group of personalities and inanimate objects. Let’s run down the list of what’s officially on notice, shall we?

1. It’s gonna be a tough week for Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. Not only is he bad, but his name is Tony Romo. Romo! That’s just asking for it.
2. The BCS eats it, and always will. It’s sad to find yourself pulling for some team to get screwed out of the national championship hunt in hopes of the NCAA realizing how retarded its system is, but that’s where we’re at.
3. Kenny Rogers claims he puts dirt on his hand to help grip the ball. The Sports Truth isn’t so sure… especially since the Gambler didn’t give up a run in the playoffs. Yes, the World Series is over, but we’re still watching you, pine tar.
4. The Wisconsin marching band apparently believes it’s okay to haze people. We agree, but at least get caught doing stuff that’s a little more interesting, guys.
5. David Stern is politely asking NBA players not to pack heat. No word yet on whether black market glock futures have tanked.
6. While sponsorship is nothing new, it may have hit a new low with Jobing.com, which just acquired the naming rights to the Phoenix Coyotes’ facility.
7. College basketball season is right around the corner, and not only are the Duke Blue Devils incredibly annoying, but the first girl I dated in high school went there after breaking up with me. We tried to be “just friends,” but I could only stomach that for so long, as other word out of her mouth was how great Duke is and blah, blah, blah. We get it. It’s a good school. They have a basketball team. Get over yourselves. Suffice it to say, the Devils might be on the Big Board to stay.
8. Tim McCarver. Enough said.

The situation was nightmarish.

Somehow, with 8:00 to go in the third quarter, Michigan State had managed to fall behind to Northwestern by a score of 38-3. My friend Chris and I were sitting in the bleachers in Evanston, pawing through an old Wall Street Journal and wondering why we were still there. I don’t think we were talking much by that point, except to wonder aloud whether head coach John L. Smith had already been fired via headset.

Then, as you may be aware, Michigan State f*%king won.

My team, the team I watch every Saturday, the team that lets me and my dad and his dad down somewhere between 5-8 times every season, scored 38 unanswered points in a quarter and a half.

They scored five touchdowns and a field goal in seven possessions, none of which lasted longer than four minutes, to win, 41-38. This sort of thing has never happened before in Division I-A ball, and I have no idea how it happened last Saturday. But I’m really glad I was there for it.

Backing up a few steps, it’s important to have a good handle on the state of the MSU football program to really grasp the bizarre magnitude of this comeback. Viewing from a distance, you may be aware of macro trends, such as “Michigan State’s football program is consistently in shambles,” but there’s more at play here than that. As I see it, there are three primary characteristics of MSU football circa 2006:

1. MSU does not come back from double-digit deficits. We cough them up with impressive regularity (see: Notre Dame ’06, Michigan ’05, Ohio State ’05, etc.), but we absolutely do not come from behind to win football games.

2. MSU can usually be counted on to do each of the following every season: a) win two games we have no business winning; b) lose three games that we have no business losing. This phenomenon is what makes our teams more interesting to watch for the casual observer than, say, Minnesota, who is just consistently mediocre. Michigan State is mediocre over time, but on gameday itself, we are usually either amazing or a train wreck.

3. During the John L. Smith era, MSU fans have come to expect one of two types of seasons: a) those that start off promisingly, and then spin into an uncontrollable and shameful loss-vortex during the Notre Dame game, and b) those that start off promisingly, continue promisingly for a few more games, and then spin into an uncontrollable and shameful loss-vortex during the Michigan game. Last season, when we beat Notre Dame in South Bend, was an example of season type B. This year, after losing to Notre Dame, we experienced crushing defeats at the hands of Michigan, Ohio State, and, um, Illinois (see point #2b above). So 2006 certainly appeared to be a textbook example of season type A.

Somehow, though, those kids turned all that around, however briefly, in Evanston. State bucked all three of the characteristics described above by coming back from a huge deficit, beating a team we should have beaten, and putting the brakes on another season-long collapse.

Drew Stanton (above) looked like the best quarterback in the Big Ten again, and nobody gave up. As the fourth quarter went on, a victory seemed somehow both impossible and inevitable; every three or four minutes, we were in the end zone again until Chris and I finally looked up and saw a lead on the scoreboard. By that point, we both agreed that John L. deserved another year.

For that alone, it was a really, really strange afternoon.

No pulsating intro music or pyrotechnics are necessary when the Sports Truth’s Starting Five takes the floor. Primarily because our budget won’t allot for such things. That would be so cool, though!

Every Friday, our panel of experts takes a current sports topic and sounds off on it — five times over. These guys have been researching constantly, poring over endless data and bouncing ideas off each other in preparation for this feature. Prepare to be amused, perplexed, enraged and maybe a little awed by their collective brilliance.

This Week’s Topic: SPORT / NOT A SPORT

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1. Golf: Sport? Not a sport? Why?

LUCAS DWYER: Not only is golf a sport, it is the hardest sport there is. The physical act of striking a golf ball and making contact might not be all that difficult, but the act of striking a golf ball, hitting it far and accurately, and doing so consistently over the course of 18 holes is far more difficult than hitting a 97 mph fastball or tackling Larry Johnson.

JOEY BARGUY: Not a sport. It’s a sport for Tiger Woods. Not for you.

EVAN CHRISTOPHER: My definition of a sport is simple: physical activity, competition and a clear winner and loser. So golf easily qualifies as a sport. Some say hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do, but I nominate hitting a 100-yard sand wedge from the rough with a bad lie onto a sloping green. Golf requires talent, concentration, no bad teammates to bring you down or blame, and incredibly bad fashion sense. I love it.

MICHAEL BRIAN: Golf: Not a sport. Golf is what you do when your body is too old, broken down, or man-boobed to play actual sports.

MICHAEL STEPHENS: A tough call, but I have to go with sport. It’s somehow easier to justify wasting most of my youth playing it if I call it one.

STEVEN VINCI: Golf is certainly a sport. A game is something everyone can do, but golf is one of the most challenging activities on the planet, and one mastered by only a few. Just because Phil Mickelson needs a bra does not mean golf is not a sport.

VERDICT: SPORT, 4-2

2. Ultimate frisbee: Sport? Not a sport? Why?

STEVEN VINCI: I’ll go with sport on this one. Even though it’s played by hippies and there is not enough physical contact, there is some skill involved. It would be a better game if there was tackling involved.

LUCAS DWYER: The only thing missing from ultimate frisbee for this to even be a question is attention. There are very few organized ultimate frisbee endeavors, so we never hear about it, but it requires athleticism, speed, endurance, coordination, and strategy — all the things you’d want in a sport.

MICHAEL BRIAN: Not a sport. Ultimate frisbee will become a sport when shirt tye-dyeing, hair unkempting and pot smoking are considered work outs.

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Before we get into this week’s picks, we need to talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Has there been a more confusing team through the first seven weeks of a season?

Let’s recap their last four games. They play the Colts, in Indy, and almost pull off the upset, 21-14. They look solid, and supposedly have a stout run defense, so we lean on them at Washington and they promptly allow Clinton Portis to run all over them and lose, 36-30, in OT. In Week 6, the Jaguars are at home against a Jets team that scared the crap out of Indianapolis the week before. Not looking good, we stay away, and go with the Jets.

The result? Jaguars cruise, 41-0. At this point, we’re calling the Redskins game an aberration and, coming off of a bye week, giving only eight to the worst team in football, the Houston Texans.

I don’t know what to think of this team. They’re going to Philadelphia, getting seven points against a team that has lost two games in a row — granted, on the road — to New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Is this a rebound week for the Jaguars? Or was the Jets game the real aberration?

The only thing we do know is that Peyton Manning & Co. are not as good as their 6-0 record. They barely beat the Jaguars and Jets — two decent teams, but by no means good teams — and they’re going to Denver this week. A 6-1 Colts team will look far more mortal Monday morning.

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 5:30 EST]

LAST WEEK: 6-6-2 SEASON: 43-52-6

TENNESSEE (-3.0) over Houston
I was one of the biggest Vince Young haters when he was made the third overall pick last year, but the man has outperformed expectations. You have to give him credit for the win over Washington because he does not play on a good team, does not have much of a supporting cast, and basically won it by himself. Most rookie quarterbacks win games in spite of themselves, but Young definitely showed me something two weeks ago.

PHILADELPHIA (-7.0) over Jacksonville
Ah, the aforementioned Jaguars. We’re sticking with home teams for the most part this week and the Eagles are coming off two tough losses and looking for someone to beat on, so the pick isn’t all that hard. The key, however, is not being surprised when the Jags win. We just have to be patient and learn to expect anything and everything from the Jaguars.

CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Atlanta
What happened last week in Atlanta was one of the best things that could have happened for gamblers. Michael Vick set a career high in touchdown passes and suddenly everything thinks that Atlanta has figured out how to use Michael Vick as a quarterback. I’ve got bad news for those people –Vick is still not a quarterback — at least not more so than Antwaan Randle-El or Ronald Curry. Against the interception-happy Bengals, the real Michael Vick will stand out.

N.Y. GIANTS (-9.0) over Tampa Bay
Seems I should have paid attention to my sources last week, huh? Damn. Along the lines of teams no one can figure out, we have Tampa Bay. They give up 27 points to the Ravens in Week 1 and then play phenomenal defense against the Eagles last week. Sure, they won on a last-second field goal (the third-longest ever), but did Philly really deserve to win that game anyway? The Buco’s played real well, so the football gods willed that ball through the uprights. However, I’m still not confident in this Tampa Bay team, even getting over one score.

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Yes, he really did. Check out ESPN if you doubt the Sports Truth.

To be fair, David Stern does understand owning a gun if it’s to protect one’s home. He’s just not convinced carrying one on the street makes you any safer.

For that reason, the NBA commissioner said Wednesday that he would prefer his players leave their firearms behind when they go out.

“It’s a pretty, I think, widely accepted statistic that if you carry a gun, your chances of being shot by one increase dramatically,” said the little man who rules with an iron fist. “We think this is an alarming subject, that although you’ll read players saying how they feel safer with guns, in fact those guns actually make them less safe. And it’s a real issue.”

One that came up recently when Indiana’s Stephen Jackson shot a gun in the air at least five times outside a strip club. He originally told police he fired in self-defense during a fight in which he was hit by a car.

The NBA’s collective bargaining agreement allows players to own licensed guns, but they can’t carry them on any team business. What kind of rule would Stern want if collective bargaining weren’t involved?

“I would favor being able to have a firearm to protect your home. Period,” says the commish who, in the span of one year, has instituted a dress code, changed the NBA ball, and banned players from ripping off their warm-up pants on the court. Where do you even come up with this stuff?

With the upcoming season less than a week off, Stern added that walking the streets carrying guns is dangerous for NBA players, but said there has been no discussion about strengthening the policy. Union spokesman Dan Wasserman said it was bolstered in last year’s agreement, at the request of the league.

“In response to issues raised by the NBA during bargaining last year,” he said, “a provision was added to the collective bargaining agreement that subjects the players to discipline if they bring any kind of firearm, even if it’s licensed, to an NBA arena, practice facility, or even a team or league offsite promotional appearance.”

Wasserman also said that the dangers of firearms are discussed during the rookie transition program, where players are informed of the legalities of it, what you can or can’t do, and the pros of cons of having a weapon. The program apparently doesn’t specify whether or not a player may cap Fabolous.

One would think that the surging Cardinals would be hurt the most by the monsoons descending upon St. Louis and causing one rainout (and counting) with the Redbirds up 2-1 in the 2006 World Series.

Likewise, the Detroit Tigers, some of whom haven’t gotten a hit since the previous round of the playoffs (talking to you, Curtis Granderson), would stand to benefit from any break in St. Louis’ momentum. At least until you consider some fringe effects of this ill-timed weather system.

If Game 4 is rained out again tonight, and/or (God forbid) tomorrow, Jim Leyland may die. It’s looking like a distinct possibility. We certainly don’t wish any harm upon the Detroit manager, but with the stress of the Fall Classic escalating, and the Busch Stadium field unplayable, he’s got little to do but smoke.

“I smoked about a carton… probably the worst day of the year for my lungs,” said the unabashed Marlboro man yesterday when asked how he passed the time.

Good grief. That can’t be good for you… a fact Leyland surely knows and could not care less about. At least during games, he’s forced to sneak his smokes in between innings, due to public health codes banning cigarettes in stadiums. During rain delays, though? Watch out, lungs.

We’re not judging, but those things will suck the life out of you, pronto. Watching the victorious Tigers carry Leyland off the field after ousting New York in the ALDS, my dad exclaimed, “They better watch out or they’re gonna kill that geezer!”

The geezer, for the record, is 61, a whole six months older than my pops. He just happens to look 102. I’d take my old man in a longevity contest if it keeps raining this hard, for sure. Of course, I’m pretty sure I’d rather smoke a carton of Camels than listen to Tim McCarver call Game 4, so maybe Jim is on to something.

Imagine a world without sportscasters, where fans tuning to games on TV hear the game — and only the game. That’s right, the sounds from the stadium or arena and little else. No chatter. No promos for other programming on the network.

You don’t have to go too far to imagine it. Just go to Canada.

As one of sports’ marquee events, the World Series, hopefully resumes tonight with Game 4, CNN.com published an article questioning whether sportscasters are even worth keeping around.

North of the border, The Canadian Broadcasting Corp. recently locked out its unionized staff, including the announcers who provide play-by-play and color commentary on Canadian Football League (CFL) games.

The reaction of fans? A big jump in ratings, with one game posting the best viewership of any regular season CFL game there in eight years.

The critics of John Madden and Tim McCarver here in the U.S., of which there are millions (including one particularly irate staff writer on the Sports Truth payroll), out there will be disappointed to know that the lockout has ended, and the announcers have returned.

McCarver, perhaps the most maligned announcer in sports, is in the middle of his 17th World Series broadcast this week. With these recent events in Canada, the question is worth asking — are the networks wasting millions on big-name announcers who fans would rather do without?

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Isaiah Washington, star of the hit series Grey’s Anatomy, has come under fire this week for his alleged use of a gay slur in a brawl with co-star Patrick Dempsey on the set. The fight between the two leading men preceded the announcement by another Grey’s Anatomy co-star, T.R. Knight, that he is gay.

What role the incident played in Knight’s decision to go public with his sexuality is uncertain, but that hasn’t speculated the media from tearing Washington apart.

In unearthing supposedly violent episodes from the 43-year old actor’s past, the media came up with mostly nonsense, but one that we found amusing… and involved a former NFL great.

At a September 2005 party in L.A., former Denver Broncos star and Super Bowl MVP Terrell Davis got into a fight with a bodyguard who had previously asked him to leave. Washington reportedly tried to defend Davis, who is friend with the actor, and who later filed a lawsuit accusing the bodyguard of racism.

Isaiah Washington is friends with Terrell Davis? Who knew? Hopefully we get to see the Mile High Salute on a future episode of Grey’s Anatomy. Wonder what T.D. is up to these days? It’s a shame such a bright career was cut short by injuries.