The Sports Truth

[Home team in CAPS. Spreads accurate as of Friday, 4:30 EST]

Indianapolis (-9) over N.Y. JETS
The Colts have been a gambling godsend over the past 2-3 years and anytime the spread is below two scores, you have to consider it. Even with the loss of Edge, this team can still score with ease (see 21 points vs. a very good Jacksonville defense) and they’re going up against a defense that gave up 150+ rushing yards to Willis McGahee. Joseph Addai certainly can’t wear McGahee’s shoes, but even he can amass 70 yards on the ground against the Jets defense which will keep them honest and allow Peyton Manning (right) to explode.

Minnesota (+1) over BUFFALO
A match up of seemingly similar teams — mediocre offense, good defense, little that’s special. Buffalo has the edge at RB, Minnesota the edge at QB. Which is more important? I think last week’s awful loss by the Bills gives us an indication.

San Diego (-2.5) over BALTIMORE
I’m not sold that San Diego is as good as everyone is hyping them up to be — if Marty tried his offensive strategy of not letting Rivers throw, ever, against a good team, they’d get whalloped. But when you need a miracle to defeat the Browns, you’re not beating the Chargers. This spread should definitely be over three points and the fact that this line has stood all week stuns me. Load up on S.D.

Dallas (-9.5) over TENNESSEE
Don’t be afraid of big spreads just because Vegas is. The gut reaction is to jump on the points thinking “T.O.’s a mess, how are the Cowboys gonna score?” Never forget that the Titans are awful. Awful. Is 21-10 out of the question? No way. I’m not sure the Titans will score 10 points.

SAN FRANCISCO (+7) over Kansas City
Probably the hardest game on the board to call. Herman Edwards and the Chiefs have shown nothing so far. The Niners, meanwhile, have discovered a running game and have life to them. The one thing you can count on in the NFL is that no team will be atrocious for more than 2-3 years (well, except the Matt Millen-led Lions). I think we’re looking at a 7-9 or 8-8 Niners team that you never want to bet against. I see them keeping this close, especially if they ever get the lead.

New Orleans (+7) over CAROLINA
I learned my lesson after betting against the Saints in Katrina Bowl I last week. I know they’re not at home this week, but Carolina has shown nothing so far and the Saints have shown a lot — Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister are giving teams fits, Brees has been predictably solid, and their run defense has been quietly very good. Ride the Saints ’til they do you wrong, especially when they’re getting a touchdown as the significantly better team. This spread is a preseason-hype spread. Use it to your advantage.

ATLANTA (-7) over Arizona
We all want to root for Arizona because they’ve been so bad, but it’s just not happening. Atlanta got steamrolled by Team Katrina last week, but they’ll rally against the disappointing Cardinals.

Miami (-3.5) over HOUSTON
Ideally, we’d want this spread to be three, so that when Miami wins 13-10 this week, just like they did last week, we’re safe. But you can’t bet on the Texans right now, just seems like God is striking them down for not taking Bush. What a tremendous mistake.

ST. LOUIS (-5.5) over Detroit
The classic “we have no idea” Vegas spread. Frankly, neither do I. When in doubt, pick the better team. The Rams are unquestionably the better team (it’s not saying much, but it’s true).

CINCINNATI (-6) over New England
That was a completely different New England team out there last Sunday night. Maybe the Patriots still can’t get over the Denver hump, much like Indy with the Patriots, but after Week 1 and 2 scares and an awful performance last week, I’m staying away from the Pats until they show us more.

Jacksonville (-3) over WASHINGTON
Before Week 3, this spread is over a touchdown, but a Jax loss to Indy and a Washington win over Houston puts this spread at three? Three points, really? This is the same Jacksonville team that dominated Pittsburgh’s offense, which is based around running, right? Isn’t Washington the same exact team, just without a 100 percent RB? When Washington can’t run the ball, do we really trust Mark Brunell against a real defense? Nope, we don’t.

Cleveland (-2.5) over OAKLAND
Is there really anything to say about betting against the Raiders anymore? The cat’s out of the bag, the secret is out. The more important question is, how much do you bet against the Raiders now. Do you add up all of your other bets and match that on Cleveland just to ensure yourself the worst you can do is the juice? Is $100 too much? What’s the ceiling with this? The Raiders can’t lose every game, can they?

CHICAGO (+3.5) over Seattle
This Bears team seems eerily similar to teams from years past and those teams always won these games. Home underdogs, undefeated, looked awful the previous week, defending NFC champion coming to town. But, this Chicago defense won’t be as flummoxed with four-WR sets as the ill-prepared G-men were. This is also the same Seahawks team which defeated the Lions 9-6. Reeks of another FG difference.

PHILADELPHIA (-11) over Green Bay
What did we learn earlier in this column? Yep, don’t be afraid of big spreads. The Eagles are a lot better than the Packers. Westbrook is healthy. Terrell Owens is gone. The Eagles are at home. Andy Reid is still around (one of my most over-rated coaches), but do you really want to talk yourself into the Packers? When it’s 7-0 Eagles in the first quarter, do you really want to say to yourself, “ok, if we cut it to 7-3, I’m still up a touchdown?” No, you don’t. That’s never good. And you know it’ll be 7-0 Eagles in the 1st quarter.

Posted in NFL, Sports Betting